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VIC: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to 17th 2018

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stevco123
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by stevco123 » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:30 pm

"...dry spell which started in November?"

I doubt that is the case, at least in a radius of about 150km from here.

Average and above rains have meant that the three months from nov to jan were okay. I'd say its more of a 6 week dry period for now, only starting at the start of february.

Definitely could do with some rain now thank you very much. Some of the younger gum trees are quite desperate now. Although the location some of them are planted in by the local council means they're probably better off dying.
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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly » Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:27 pm

"...dry spell which started in November?"
Nah, summer. We started summer in mid November with a record run of 30s. Then went on to have Vic’s equal third warmest DJF on record.

The dry started just after the Australia Day weekend, and sits on 44 days or there abouts. Don’t think we will break the record set in 2009... or at least I hope not :?

Wierd summer as the first month or two was wet for most central and eastern areas, then it turned completely dry. Never seen that before. Summer 1996/1997 and 2008/09 were kinda similar, but timing of the switch was different, and the first was a much wetter year overall while the second was much drier.

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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:59 am

Looks like the cities run of days with less than 1mm has come to an end. 1.2mm and counting... an absolute deluge :roll:

Too southerlies for most of Vic, so one of those events where showers run straight up the warm bay over the CBD but misses most the rest of Vic.

Progs starting to firm on the front for Sunday arriving earlier, with a rainband following. Not big totals, but at least something. An earlier front is better, as it gives us less chance to spike towards 40C and narrows the window of strong/gales winds.

Meanwhile, TCs likely to get close to both Darwin and Brisbane next five days. Most models keep them just off shore.

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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Dane » Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:48 am

City may have had over 1mm this morning but there was nothing here.
Takes it to 42 days for me with 1mm or less and counting. :x

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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:35 am

18Z GFS is just evil for Sunday afternoon. 25 Kt sustained NWlys and 39 degC - no thanks.

It reminds me a bit of 22nd March 1998. 38.7 degC that day in Melb CBD.

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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Hunter1890 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:11 pm

Somehow copped 8 mm last night in the inner NE burbs. Even playing back the radar loop I don't understand how we got that much. It was enough to make our grass return to green so I'm happy. Progs for Saturday look interesting. Not very concordant between models just yet but hoping it will tighten up as we head through the week.
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Didjman » Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:57 pm

TFBs likely for Sunday. I have been called into the Seymour CFA ICC

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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:26 pm

00Z GFS is even worse. 30-35 KT sustained winds and extremely tight pressure gradient.

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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:48 pm

TFBs likely for Sunday. I have been called into the Seymour CFA IC
Bad day across most the models (ACCESS is the outlier with an earlier front). Only positive is the front hits the west in the morning and central areas early arvo across most models. The sooner the better, on these type of days.

Looks like some rain after the front with most models showing 4-10mm across the south following the change. Dribbles in the north.

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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Lucia » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:38 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:48 pm
[

Looks like some rain after the front with most models showing 4-10mm across the south following the change. Dribbles in the north.
All I can say is, thank goodness for something to look forward too at last. :bringiton:

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hillybilly
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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:11 pm

All I can say is, thank goodness for something to look forward too at last. :bringiton:
Pretty sure the models will find a way of killing that rain too :( I’ve lost track of the number of times we’ve been promised rain in the last seven weeks by one or more models. Completely out of luck in central areas, and most of the north :o

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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by snowfall » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:37 pm

Had 1.1mm here overnight. Not a lot, but anything is good right now! Really hope some rain arrives on Sunday. As the models stand this might be our only reasonable chance in the next ten days, given that the dynamics appear to still favour continued ridging. This prolonged dry spell has certainly been a huge turnaround compared to the first half of summer. Back in January I thought maybe we were in store for a fairly wet summer, but it really goes to show how quickly weather patterns can change.

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Re: Classic autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:22 am

Big change across the models. All bring the front through much earlier, with a solid rainband to follow. Seems they’ve all fallen in behind ACCESS :o

Might switch again, but my sense is they have been moving towards an earlier front for quite a few runs, which suggests the system will not wave in the bight. The front has an intense temperature gradient across it. At one point on Sunday GFS has temps in western Vic at 10C and near 40C in the east. In the upper 850Ts change from low 20s to near 0.

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Re: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:32 am

It's a fine line between a nasty and benign Sunday that's for sure. GFS 18z has slightly delayed the front again, turning it feral in the morning. ICON is going for a code red, others are earlier. Interesting that the BoM are ignoring Access G and going for the feral central areas scenario on the updated 7am Meteye view. I don't think we will really know until Friday. It's seems like a southern clipper with another one right behind it with regards to rain. That is one big high coming in behind the fronts though..... :|

The cross equatorial flow looks like its about to really crank, with the monsoon trough to drop on northern OZ again over the weekend. GFS is modelling a gargantuan tropical monster off NT / WA that will ride the ridge down the coast peaking in the 890's hPa and also the coral sea is getting lively in late March . CFS showing a powerful upper low around March 26th over Vic. Starting to see the signs for late March :)

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Re: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:35 pm

00Z GFS has the cold front coming through Sunday morning. Saturday will be hotter for most of Vic.

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Re: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by Sean » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:03 pm

This is so depressing. It's like just $#@%$#% rain.

Can't believe I'm saying this... but bring on winter? *gag*

The synoptics look dreadful. NZ looks to be in store for some decent rain, of course.. :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Everything looks really dreadful now in the sandy soils of the shore hugging SE. Makes the whole of Melbourne look like a dump. All we need is a hard rubbish collection as the final touch

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Re: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by flyfisher » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:13 pm

We currently have hard rubbish collection in Belgrave right now. Huge piles of stuff on crispy dry grass out the front of houses. Adds to the fuel load if a fire was to start. Hope we can get through the weekend without any fires. Sunday still looks like an earlier front which is a good sign, but as for rain - well nothing substantial.

HarleyB
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Re: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by HarleyB » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:55 pm

This has been the most gorgeous summer season for mine up here. I'm now living in Wangaratta and it hasn't rained once in the 5 weeks I've been up here. Nice cool nights, hot days, and the humidity that was around in the first half of summer has really given way to a much drier heat. Still not looking forward to winter here.

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Re: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by hillybilly » Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:19 am

Another day of dry in FC. It's cooler at the moment, but as we close in on 7 weeks without rain things are just baking off. Starting to see lots of the trees on the northwest slopes have leaves die now. They don't turn brown - they just simply die on the branches while remaining green. This usually only happens during intense heatwaves :? The understorey of Ferns and small trees is seeing widespread die back. Watching this in previous years some of the trees will make it through, but some will die. The upshot is the thinning of our forest through intense water/heat stress events continues :( This flash dry is now running neck-and-neck with Jan/Feb 2009 (some spots worse, some spots less bad) so it's very significant.

Progs seem to be pretty settled on the synoptics. Warmer and windier on Saturday, but most areas don't get too toastie. Far northwest will race towards 40C, but southern areas look more like low 30s. Front Sunday morning after a warm/hot windy night.

Rainband just behind the front. This is where the models disagree with totals ranging widely. GFS is keen on widespread 10-20mm, EC and CMC more like 5-10mm. Secondary front on Monday could drop a few more mm's. Rain tends to peak in western areas, and then near the higher Yarra Ranges.

Really hoping this one delivers, as I'm so so sick of watering and watching our usually green and lush forests bakes like this.

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Re: Classic dry autumn start March 1st to.....

Post by neil275 » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:07 pm

Big dark cloud to the west of here. Could this be the first drop of rain in over 6 weeks...? (probably not)

After endless days of clear skies.... it's ridiculous that I'm stirred just by seeing a cloud. :laughing:

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