VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:01 pm

AWF THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
TUESDAY 14th November 2017

There is a general risk across the majority of the state for isolated thunderstorm activity due to increasing moisture and instability. Any thunderstorms that develop are more likely during this afternoon and evening thanks to daytime surface heating. There is an increased risk for development about the southwest where instability is greatest, and also about the eastern ranges where stronger forcing is prevalent. Movement of thunderstorms if they develop is expected to be mostly slow, therefore heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is the greatest risk relating to severe phenomena, however large hail is also possible, especially in the southwest. Damaging winds are least likely, however convective outflows will occur.
Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 141117.png
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Gordon » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:43 pm

Thanks Jake, we're in your zone at least!

Hope I'm not tormented by a 3km miss like yesterday :).

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by hillybilly » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:17 pm

Got some Cu growing quickly over the eastern burbs on convergence between NW and NE flow. Nice crisp outlines and building so gotta be a chance. Also a small cluster of cells near Geelong.

The whole of the west is covered by convection but low levels are very dry so minimal precipitation. Looks to me like a dryline somewhere west of Ballarat ATM which marks the edge of the extensive Cu field out west.

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by nafets » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:37 pm

Convection going off in SW and W and E suburbs, clouded over in N suburbs now. Activity much closer to metro than yesterday which gives us a better chance.
Go the bombersss!

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:03 pm

00Z GFS pulls the trigger with quite a La Nina-esque upgrade for the Western half of the State. :o

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Wilko » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:06 pm

YES :)

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by WeatherViewer » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:15 pm

At work in the City, home PWS showing 36.2C in Tarneit :o

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by stevco123 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:55 pm

Something's trying to develop here. I really thought our chances were a lot lower than further north.

Here's hoping something builds.

Nice Cu's
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by nafets » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:38 pm

BoM going for 5 - 40mm Wednesday-Thursday CBD. As previously mentioned GFS quite excited for western half of the state. EC going for around 10mm in Melb. Expecting around 20mm here but could be easily more.
Go the bombersss!

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by typhoon29 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:20 pm

warm to hot and dry here today, can see Cu on all on the horizon, but see what tomorrow brings.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by stevco123 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:42 pm

Sunny and pouring here at the same time. Very isolated shower developed overhead and is refusing to move. Intersting.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Dane » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:07 pm

That cell just missed me Stevco but its started rumbling now.
Didn't get a drop here though.

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by stevco123 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:13 pm

Just got to my parents house in Cranbourne East. Bone dry and they're only 5km from me.

Frequent rumbles from that cell that developed over me earlier. Now gone to our south.

Aaahhh... the summers that I remember.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Horts » Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:38 pm

Can see so many Cu all around me but nothin but blue above me. Frustrating but what a view! This is how the skies should look 8-)

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by occluded » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:00 pm

Can see that cell now over Westernport from here - looks impressive!

Almost 35 here today. Had one big cloud go past, that was it. Hoping for some rain tomorrow as the tank is starting to get low.

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by hillybilly » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:19 pm

That Cb over the southern burbs was fantastic viewing. Classic LP cell with a beaver tail infeed. Guess some very isolated heavy rain with it, but mostly big cold drops.

EC downgrades, while CMC, ACCESS and GFS have significant upgrades. Whole pattern stays stuck for 7-10 days with humid conditions right through in mostly northeasterly flow. We should go southerly briefly Thursday and Friday. Going to end up a very warm November if ECs correct (after all those complaints about the cool start in the media).

Still thinking 20-40mm here next five days. Will be lots of local variations so will be some winners and losers when this is wrapped up :?

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Vic » Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:25 pm

The latest GFS is currently doing its 06z run, with the predicted rainfall totals aligning with earlier runs. Hopefully, this means we can confidently see between 20-40mm across the Port Phillip Basin, which would be great as the gardens all need a good soak.

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Gordon » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:01 pm

BOM sticking their neck out with the 4.30pm forecast for Ballarat: 3mm to 30mm Wednesday, 2mm to 15mm Thursday. Not much chance of a miss with that range :).

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:22 am

OCF Ensemble reckons 34mm here. Totals are expected to be around 50mm in the Western District...

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable weather - November 9-??? 2017

Post by Gordon » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:47 am

Updated SWW for heavy rainfall now extends from the western border to include Ballarat, Bendigo etc.

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