Vic: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18 2017

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Tassiedave
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Tassiedave » Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:41 pm

Strong winds in Tassie last night and some decent thunderstorms. 148 km/h gust last night at Cape Grim. Many trees and branches down over the state. Showers approaching from the west struggling to reach Launceston but delivering much needed rain in Hobart. Rainfall up until 9 am Lake St Clair 46 mm, Waratah 35 mm, Mt Victoria 33 mm, Ouse 27 mm, Launceston 19 mm, Scottsdale 19 mm, Wynyard 15 mm, Deloraine 14 mm, Hobart 6 mm

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Dane » Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:40 pm

4.5mm's overnight here. Nothing since, no sign of the forecast
showers today so far.

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hillybilly
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly » Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:18 pm

Wierd mild day up here then turned quite thundery (but without the thunder?). Was foggy to about noon. Brief heavy showers with big drops from mid arvo. Was in Bayswater under one which was as heavy as a summer down pour. Radar showed it yellow on a couple of frames.

Lots of showers here now, almost spreading into an area of rain. Had just on 1.5mm since it started.

Progs look pretty similar on tonight's run. EC has a bit less rain, GFS got a bit more. Across the models looks like around 50mm here, 50-100mm in the northeast, and good falls through most other areas.

Progs look a touch colder for Friday and Saturday. EC, GFS and CMC are all cold enough for snow to about 500m Friday night into Saturday. The model agreement is encouraging.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly » Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:46 am

8mm more in the gauge. That's about 15mm for the event. Mild couple of days coming up, then rain, wind and eventually colder temperatures. Progs pretty similar. Perhaps a little less rain on Tuesday and a bit less cold for Saturday but looks basically like wiggle with the models tweaking in different directions.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:19 pm

Models haven't changed too much except GFS has gone another big polar surge for late in the week. Looks like a classic winter set up with the north west cloud band, rain shadowing from the Ranges, then followed in by the polar front and trough attack from the south west. Might get another 50mm up here with a chance of snow later in the week :)

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly » Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:12 pm

GFS update I should getting seriously cold. 850Ts getting down to -5C which usually means decent snow here provided there is precip. EC about a degree warmer. Models pretty conistent in showing around 50mm here for the week. The area just west and north of Melbourne may struggle a bit with rain shadowing, which the north east will get big falls of rain then snow.

Also looks like a decent storm surge for the coast.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:21 am

Mild windy night south of the divide. Lots of spots already close to or past their August average max. Today looks mild, almost warm. Touch and go for a 20C in Melbourne. Just the odd shower around, but with dry low levels thinking most rain will evaporate above the surface. We miss the peak warmth with the ridge of warm air being under cut by tomorrow's front. To the north NSW and Queensland will see record or near record warmth for the time of year :?

Tomorrow looks mild, wet and windy. Progs are pretty consistent with 10-25mm for most of Vic, and more than 50mm on the alps. That will be entirely rain, with temps not dropping cold enough for snow til about noon on Wednesday.

Longer terms progs look similar. GFS the coldest, EC a bit milder.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:22 am

Very nice tropical feed into the cloud band developing http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:03 am

Both EC and Access R 12z showing a nice little convergence in Melbourne for 1am Wednesday ATM
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EC - Access R Wed 1am.jpg
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:17 am

Looks like at least 20mm here this week. That would basically take us to average August rainfall 2/3rds into the month :D

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Macedonian » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:13 pm

First higher-than-10C max since mid June at my place.
12.1C a little while ago.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Skywalker » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:18 pm

Currently 20C in this neck of the woods according to the local Laverton station with sunny blue skies. :D
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Dane » Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:59 pm

Reached 20.6c here today,warmest day since the 24th of April.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:10 pm

Maximum temperatures in Tasmania today included 17.4 degrees in Launceston, 18.3 at Friendly Beaches, 18.1 at St Helens, 17 at Devonport and 17.1 at Hobart Airport. Rain since 9 am included 6.2 mm at Huonville and 3.4 mm at Hobart. Rain and thunderstorms in the north tomorrow, hail is possible.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:36 pm

Tropical rain event inbound on the radar :o we don't get the full warmth but we will certainly get the moisture. Going to dump rain on the divide and thought the northeast. EC, GFS and CMC all have 25-50mm here the next 48 hours which is a great fall for winter. Long way below our winter average so really would welcome this one here. Northeast wet spots should reach 100mm :?

Event will make a big mess of the ski season. It will turn colder from Wednesday arvo, but doubt losses will be made up (spots like Falls Creek have already lost 30cm due to melt and compaction with the warmth).

Low level snow from late on Friday. Across the models they all show temps and precipitation consistent with flurries here in the Dandenongs :D

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by nafets » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:08 pm

Going for a day trip to Buller tomorrow to ski, rain will certainly make a mess of everything. Top of around 5c and rain will mean a lot of snow loss/ slushiness. Would love to go later in the week but tomorrow is the only day I can go :(
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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly » Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:22 am

Mild windy cloudy night. Rain inbound and looks like a wet 36 hours ahead. Models a bit jumpy on details. Latest runs have EC going from 40 to 20mm here, ACCESS going the other way, GFS not much changed and CMC upgrading a touch.

Progs pretty generally killing the coldest of the air on Saturday now. Looks like 850Ts will dip to -3 to -4C which typically means snow to around 600-800m.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by hillybilly » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:45 am

Had a couple of heavy showers here so far. 2.4mm. Not cold outside, but rather horrible with a gust wind blowing the rain like wet bullets :o
Going for a day trip to Buller tomorrow to ski, rain will certainly make a mess of everything. Top of around 5c and rain will mean a lot of snow loss/ slushiness. Would love to go later in the week but tomorrow is the only day I can go
Looks downright awful up there. Nearly 10mm since 7am. More inbound. Yikes... :? Real hypothermia weather with soaking rain, nasty winds and low viz.

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by Wilko » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:55 am

Been very dry here..had to water veggie garden all winter
I am not that optimistic due to the rain shadow ..hoping for 10-15mm..anything more will be a blessing

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Re: Milder with a series of front: August 9-18

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:25 pm

Pineapple express is in action today. I think we might see a fair bit of this happening in the coming month or two within strong sub-tropical jetstreams.

Inland Australia is heating up due to the +ve IOD keeping skies clear, and there's a big fight occurring between this and the polar air-mass from the South-west. A volatile Spring is about to begin IMO.

2mm so far today with more on the way.

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