Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

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hillybilly
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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by hillybilly » Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:46 pm

Record high precipitable water value in Melbourne for so late in autumn (by 12 days). Adds to the records set in December, January and March. I'm a fan of tropical weather, but is just a little odd how often it's visited us lately :?

Dumper of a shower here in the city at lunchtime, but quite short lived.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:13 pm

Just clocked up 45mm for the event :) Slow light rain continues.

As the trough inches east, its slowly losing its moisture feed but it's currently still got enough to drop some good rain in central parts along with some bubbly heavy isolated cells. It's trying hard to break the rain shadow into Melbourne as Stevco pointed out and looks like it's succeeding more in the northern suburbs and city now.

Edit : and also a little convergence zone appearing near Geelong running NW to SE

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by Supercellimpact » Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:22 pm

Just checked the manual gauge in the backyard, 58mm. Pretty good drop !

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:32 pm

Ended up with 45mm. Quite an event, especially for April.

Looking cold from Anzac Day onwards and perhaps another 10-15mm then.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by typhoon29 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:03 pm

0mm here today. Been fine and humid all day.
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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by Tassiedave » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:15 pm

Maximum temperatures today Launceston 26.0, Hobart 25.0 (warmer than Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra, Sydney and on par with Brisbane), Grove 25.8, Bushy Park 25.9. In Launceston we have received only 17.8 mm for April and no rain has been recorded in the last 12 days.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by Adam37 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:33 pm

Had 15mm from this event which takes me to 85mm for the month so far!! About twice
the April average for Bacchus Marsh. The recently dry Lerderderg river is now flowing through the gorge again.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by snowfall » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:16 pm

Only 8.9mm here today - rained for much of the day but it mostly light. Still, it's a bit more than I was expecting and it will keep everything green. Some of the other falls reported from northern areas are quite amazing - 45mm in Kyneton is a great addition to the big falls earlier there in the month. Currently 15.1 here. Rain has stopped, but looks like the possibility for one or two more showers this evening judging by the radar.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by Macedonian » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:23 pm

53mm for the event so far. Big surprise and very happy.
I drove out to Glenlyon via Kyneton today. Lots of rain out that way as well.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by Blackie » Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:09 am

32mm for us at Mansfield. Biggest fall since the January rain. Potentially another 30+ for next week could see the Lake Eildon outflow slow and head toward re filling. Currently 65% full.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by hillybilly » Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:36 am

Pretty amazing little system. I've seen plenty of highs with lower cental pressure than this low ;) , and yet it's managed to give us one of the best autumn breaks in quite a few years. All comes down to the upper dynamics and record precipitable water so a strange way to get a break but welcome :D

Well done to CMC for being the first model (again) to pick that the system would infact last long enough to impact Vic.

Just over 13mm here for the event, so underperformed locally, but should pick up more today as the trough edges closer. Showers are slow, heavy but pretty sparse so can imagine some spot next 36 hours may get a surprise 20mm or more, while others get zilch. The difference will be more or less luck.

EC and GFS now very excited about next weeks front. Looks like a classic ANZAC Day weather system :?

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by Didjman » Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:37 am

Just tipped out 32.5mm for here - more than I was expecting.
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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:18 am

Another 10mm overnight to get it up to 55mm for the event. 144mm for the month and 223mm for the year. Things have certainly changed up here in the last few weeks :)

Yes Hillybilly, CMC was the stand out model for this event. Incredible differences from one side of the ranges to the other as well. Totals 50 to 80mm around here but only 10 to 20mm just over the range.

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by stevco123 » Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:33 am

11.2mm all up here. Not bad considering earlier forecasts.

Weather station reckons about 30mm of rain Monday through Wednesday and a maximum of only 11 degrees Wednesday :o
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stevco1 ... &headers=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by hillybilly » Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:06 pm

Some decent thundery showers just to the south of us today, but just got the edge. Still added another mm so finish on ~15mm. Happy with that.

Next system looking good in all the models, only two days out. Going to feel cold in comparison to the currently midl humid weather :D

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Re: Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

Post by StratoBendigo » Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:43 pm

I was chatting to friend who lives near Quambatook today. He mentioned that one local farmer near Lake Meran scored 150mm last week, most of it from a near stationary storm late Friday.

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