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SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

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daviescr
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by daviescr »

Magnificent images Brad, thanks for sharing - love those last 4 or 5.
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flatcam
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by flatcam »

What great images! Must have been great to have been there when those two unleashed their fury! :D

I love that second supercell! Looks quite concentrated if you know what I mean. Was there any large hail or lightning in these two Hamlan?

Also, by some small chance, would anyone have pics of the radar signatures of these two supercells? Would be very interesting to see what hey looked like.

Awesome pics and thankyou for sharing! :D

Cheers, Cam :D
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Hamlan »

Thanks for the comments guys. In my opinion, getting up close to these monsters is the ultimate Cam. The first day the lightning static on radio was non-stop well before we got a visual on the cell and there were a few visible CG's once we were on it whilst the second day I didnt notice as the structure was just too extreme :o Regarding radar, these storms are perfect case studies for why relying on radar to judge real storm dynamics can be a dodgy science. There have been many many supercell days this past year that John and I have captured that looked ordinary on radar. If you see radar, Thursdays supercell is on the northern end of the line which although early in the day and not the last storm it acted like a tail-end charlie.
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Meso
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Meso »

Wow! :o

Well done Brad (& john if he was there!). Insanely jealous!! Been hanging out for a good chase, but just didn't think it was worth it amongst all the mess in the sky this week (plus I've had a buggered wrist so could barely steer a vehicle), but you guys have proven once again you know how to hunt these things down. That really is finding a needle in a haystack, hat's off to you boys! Crazy ground hugging action there! You've done well up in that area of NSW too, bet you get all giddy heading up there now :P

So...when are we hooking up a for chase? :P
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Meso »

flatcam wrote:Also, by some small chance, would anyone have pics of the radar signatures of these two supercells? Would be very interesting to see what hey looked like.
Check out http://www.theweatherchaser.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; You can view archived radar from any site and day that you want. Definitely one for the bookmarks!
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by ULD »

Magnificent Brad. Travelled Canberra Bendigo on 13/1 - now I wish I'd left earlier and taken a detour!
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by schitzengiggles »

Yep, you've both made strawberry jam from violet there.

Would you have chased on these days if not for the SDS?
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Hamlan »

MichaelKeene wrote:Fantastic structure there. I never pictured that sort of structure when I saw the radar( on the second day), however the shear was always favourable for supercells,and there more than enough moisture to ensure some ground scraping wall clouds. I just thought the cloudcover may've limited things, but John was saying there was a break in the cloud after 12:30pm and thats when things exploded. On closer inspection, there was a decent cell at the back end of some murk around Deniliquin and this lasted for quite some time. Whilst it never looked good on radar, you dont neccessaily need a black/red core for a supercell. Did the reasonably warm uppers restrict the storm height somewhat? Nice work there.
Hey Michael,

I just watched the video! and yeah it was fantastic structure, both days in fact :) Radar just simply hasnt cut the mustard in many situations I chased the last 12mths when it comes to showing the potential of what is happening, this is just another example. Cloud cover is an interesting topic, especially for the 13th, however we were both confident that there would be sufficient breakup of cloud in the arvo and we were right. Forcast soundings via stormcast were on the money (again) and showed that cloud was not going to stop stong cell development in our chase target area and to add to our confidence, the late morning sat pics clearly showed that there was plenty of clearing north of the border that would be move south and hence a bit more heating to the equation, not to mention GFS amped the CAPE for the area at 2pm so we knew something was progged to add to the energy and figured it would be heating. It did clear as we got to Moama with patches of blue sky and then by Deni at 12.30 we had a great view of individual cells as they went up. The northern cell on the first Deni line is our storm. I dont think the storm height was affected actually but hard to say. When we got occasional visuals of the updrafts they were quite impressive and vertical but hard to estimate any heights.
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Hamlan »

Hi Greg, yeah John was there and we sure have a good record up north of Echuca thats for sure. Thinking of buying property up at Deni hehehe. To be honest, we were quite confident of both days producing up there despite the weeks conditions and conjecture from others as to dew points being too high for successful chasing. I've experienced these conditions in the states and based on the soundings and progs for the target area, the otherwise messy skies south didnt worry us.

Next chase setup (you know what they look like well enough) up north, give one of us a call (PM me if you dont have either of our numbers, I cant recall) and see where we're at. Always good to have a chaser convergence.

Brad.
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Hamlan »

ULD, thats enough to make a chaser cry!!!! such a shame you didnt stumble across this storm but I assume you went via Albury and perhaps Shepp.
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Hamlan »

schitzengiggles wrote:Yep, you've both made strawberry jam from violet there.

Would you have chased on these days if not for the SDS?
Hey Ryan, can always rely on you to pull out a classic saying....strawberry jam is a good outcome from violet right? :P :D

Yes we would definately have chased, we discussed this in the morning while driving. You've probably read my comments above that the models, forcast soundings and then finally when we were heading up there the sat pics all looked the goods to us.
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flatcam
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by flatcam »

Hamlan wrote:Thanks for the comments guys. In my opinion, getting up close to these monsters is the ultimate Cam. The first day the lightning static on radio was non-stop well before we got a visual on the cell and there were a few visible CG's once we were on it whilst the second day I didnt notice as the structure was just too extreme :o Regarding radar, these storms are perfect case studies for why relying on radar to judge real storm dynamics can be a dodgy science. There have been many many supercell days this past year that John and I have captured that looked ordinary on radar. If you see radar, Thursdays supercell is on the northern end of the line which although early in the day and not the last storm it acted like a tail-end charlie.
Yeah, that is some extreme structure! And you said that the wall clouds were rotating aswell! :o

I have also looked at the radar from the 13th (Thanks Meso!! :D) and it almost looks like there was nothing there!! In regards to severity, the supercell almost looks as intense as some of the rain bands we had :laughing: and yet, in real life, it was much worse? So the radar is unrealiable :( It doesn't get everything wrong though, like the November 26 Craigieburn supercell. It had a very small isolated black beast of a storm right over my head and boy was it right! Best storm I have seen since I can remember. It was only later I read it was a supercell XD

I have some pics of it going over our heads here. Do you think I should try and post them in the topic for those storms or leave them be because it was 3 months ago?

Cheers, Cam :D
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Hamlan »

Hi Cam, if you have pics of the Craigieburn storm you should post them for sure.
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flatcam
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by flatcam »

Here are the shots I took from Mt. Riddley the 13th. I had them posted in the Victorias Breaking Weather forum, but that probably wasn't the best place to put them. This is probably a better place.

I can't delete my other post though - maybe a mod could help me out?

So here are the pics. I wasn't really happy with the way they turned out but I can't complain. Please keep in mind that I had to compress them substantially to upload them as well, but hopefully everyone should be able to see them okay.

The cell to the West dropping a heap of rain. This one also produced a massive (!!) wall cloud about an hour before this photo, but no photos of that unfortunately.

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A small anvil developing to the South East along the line of storms expected to hit Melbourne.

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The same anvil a little later (with a dragonfly appearing as the black dot in the middle)! :laughing:

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Nice low clouds in the cell to the West.

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Another nice storm developing in the same line of storms.

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The line of rain (is it called the dry line?) from the cell to the West.

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I also have a pano of the cell to the West, but because I was so far away (and the compression), it doesn't really look any good. :(

Cheers, Cam :D

EDIT: Okay cheers Hamlan. Will do when I can :D
Also, wrong image was attached to the last photo. Sorry, had a picture of a wall cloud XD
Last edited by flatcam on Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Meso
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Meso »

Hamlan wrote:Hi Greg, yeah John was there and we sure have a good record up north of Echuca thats for sure. Thinking of buying property up at Deni hehehe. To be honest, we were quite confident of both days producing up there despite the weeks conditions and conjecture from others as to dew points being too high for successful chasing. I've experienced these conditions in the states and based on the soundings and progs for the target area, the otherwise messy skies south didnt worry us.

Next chase setup (you know what they look like well enough) up north, give one of us a call (PM me if you dont have either of our numbers, I cant recall) and see where we're at. Always good to have a chaser convergence.

Brad.
Done. Next decent setup....pencil it in. We are putting name to face. I can't take fantasising about John any longer... :P

Although I can't see anything on the horizon unfortunatley. What a weird season this has been...there has basically been nothing here in Vic since early December (before that it was madness) apart from what you guys got recently (and that wasn't even really in this state). But, we are in the midst of summer, so I guess it's to be expected really.

Anyway...I sense something big brewing. There is gonna be some March 2010 style storms somewhere around Victoria before the summer is out.
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by rikjpool »

Part 1

Awesome pics Brad! Great stuff! Certainly didnt expect to see those! :)

I was down at St Leonards for the week of the 6th till the 14th... Whilst we didnt get all that much sun, I was very happy to get 3 amazing Sunsets and a very nice Line coming across the bay on the 12th of Jan. I've only got pictures of the Line and 1 sunset atm, as my card reader has 2 bent pins... :@

This is the view from Port Arlington looking back over towards Geelong and Avalon as it was coming over. I felt like I was in the tropics looking over the sea with storms like this coming over... :)
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An interesting scud feature, but thought nothing of it....
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Thankfully for me, it started to grow the closer it got to the bay.
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After a while I noticed a very strong wall cloud come out from behind the precip... look to the left of picture between the rain curtains.
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Now I didnt hear any reports of any water spouts or anything of the sort, but I tell you what it must have come mighty close....
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The wall cloud disapeared from view, and a massive HP Cell was bearing down on me.... Picture as it comes over the bay at full 10mm...
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Last edited by rikjpool on Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by rikjpool »

I waited for it to pass over me, with a nice rain rate in a couple of places (total whiteout...lol)
I headed back to St Leonards to get the back of the line, luckily for me it was right on sunset. This would have to rate in the top 2 sunsets I've ever witnessed. Camera doesnt really do it any justice...

Started off with the biggest, brightest, double rainbow i could ever have seen... Even at 10mm it didnt really fit...
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Then it just got better and better....
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There is plenty more, but i better not take up all the bandwidth.... lol. :)
I live in a world where I dont see to believe, but I believe to see...
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Hamlan »

Thanks Rikki and glad you got the storms you hoped for down there! Certainly a nice wall cloud and funnel you got there. Im not sure what day it was but I'm sure someone on the forum or perhaps WZ reported there was a spout on the bay so perhaps look into that more. Like the kiosk shot too.

Brad.
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by flatcam »

Those are incredible shots Rikki! Everything just blends together perfectly! I love the last photograph of the HP cell dropping a heap of rain - looks massive! :o
Also, the colours in the Kiosk Shot are incredible! :)

Are we done for storms for the next week or two? It seems a bit that way :(

Cheers, Cam :D
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Re: SE AUS: Increasing storm potential 8/1 to 16/1

Post by Meso »

Maybe a chance at storms for Saturday. But, I wouldn't get too excited just yet.
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