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VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

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Harley34
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VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Harley34 »

Storms for Sat and Mon looks a possibility, especially on Monday.

N VIC looks to do better according to Storm cast, but Melbourne should see something decent imo.

Thoughts?
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by crikey »

Hi Harley
I am not a storm chaser but the BOM 7 day day wind forecast map overlayed with the temp data and relative humidity data from Australia looks to be very fiery for a broad area including VIC All of SA and western NSW .
Notice the different source of north westerly flow on the saturday and monday.
On saturday the source is particularly interesting as the N/west stream is modified air from the south, which has flowed up into central SA and takes a sharp clockwise turn over VIC and s/western NSW; whereas on the Monday the N/westerly stream comes from a high pressure cell from the east and comes from central NSW
Also note a North west moist cloud band from mid Indian ocean is feeding into the low pressure belt in the southern ocean atm.
I reckon this is going to be a sensational event if the set up suggested by wind, temp and RH forecast maps hold out. :sccary:

Here is a summary of BOM wind forecast map as this simulation see the hot spots .
I have highlighted the VIC spots
WIND FORECAST MAP :windsail:
Saturday 17th 10.00am on SA coastline looks a good watch as cool moist winds collide head on with warm dry northerlies. Firecracker time. Got to watch this one!
On man! This set up is looking very interesting from the perspective of the wind forecast map.
A strong southerly flow pushing up well into SA on saturday afternoon 4pm. Cool moist southerlies from the south interacting with very warm dry inland air over SA on saturday arvo.
After the southerly stream reaches inland SA.
The airstream from the south takes a sharp clockwise curve over central parts of SA and the wind stream now a mixture of cold from the south and warm from the north stream down over Northern, north central and VIC and most of western NSW. If this comes off this is going to be amazing weather variable interacting. Ka pow!
This major disturbance takes in a large area of SA /VIC and western NSW
By 10pm the air becomes more stable with still some activity in S/west NSW and central SA. and along the Murray near about Echuca/Yarrawonga /Albury way.
At the same time a strong front with high winds has encroached on the S/west corner of WA on saturday evening into sunday..all day
Marking saturday afternoon to sit at computer and watch this one.WOW

Monday 4.00am SA is again confronted with another strong front running in a north south line across the whole state from North to south. That change moves across SA from west to east.
Coastal areas expecting the strongest change and stronger winds
By 10.00am that frontal change line extends from mid western NSW to the Victorian coastline.( north /south line)
All areas along this line look impacted. Especially Mildura and the west and N/west of the state.
The forecast areas around the coast of SA and Adelaide continue to experience strong westerlies.
Also western and Swest VIC and western NSW.
A wind change at Bendigo latitude at about 4pm Nwest to west.
However this time the source of the warmer winds is from the high to the east and streams down from central NSW


SA.near Adelaide still continuing with strong frontal change Monday night at 10.pm

Tuesday morning S/west Vic and west Vic and Adelaide area and Melbourne and southern coastal still experiencing strong westerly flows


http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Supercellimpact »

Loving the sound of that wind change coming through at 4pm and the collision of winds, maybe that's why the hot spot at the SE of the corner of the malee ? Storm cast reckons so. Saturday looks good, on stormcast I punched in 5pm and in the hot spot and it cam up with 23 deg and a dewpoints of 10. So that may be enough to get something going.
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by crikey »

Yeah supercellimpact. That dew point seems a bit low? That sounds like before a change? at 5.00pm
Try a few inputs a bit later on in the Saturday evening. A change should produce a RelHumidityof 80% plus and an increasing dew point l would have thought?
Punch in for Monday at 4.00pm for Bendigo area. What are the stats?
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Supercellimpact »

Monday 5pm is 22 deg and 9 dp. So it's still low.
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by crikey »

Supercellimpact
Yeah. Those stats are not what you would expect.
Anyway. Thats what makes weather great to watch. The illusive an unexpected. it will be interesting to see the outcome .
It just raises your eyebrows when some of the data shows potential and other data doesn't
I can only suggest you run through and punch in every hour after 5pm for both saturday and Monday and see if you can see a change emerging.
Changes can come quickly at times.
There's got to be something there in those stats somewhere, you would think!
Good luck. Let us know what you find
I am not familiar with stormcast
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by rikjpool »

So, as far as i know there are a few of us heading out tomorrow. I wont have net access unfortuantly, so any updates would be appriciated. I'm heading to Logan for my target area, from there i can follow it ENE untill i feel its time to come home. :)
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Supercellimpact »

For Monday the instability looks to be coming through between 2-4pm. Tomorrow even is looking great but moisture maybe is a problem with the dp around 10. The Shear for tommorrow and Saturday is insane at 300 its 105kts and Monday also, and its consistent at all levels.
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Tornado »

rikjpool » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:44 pm wrote:
rikjpool wrote:So, as far as i know there are a few of us heading out tomorrow. I wont have net access unfortuantly, so any updates would be appriciated. I'm heading to Logan for my target area, from there i can follow it ENE untill i feel its time to come home. :)
Hey Rik,
I'll be heading out too and am testing my whole set-up. I'll be streaming the chase live on Chaser TV, so hoping that the armchair chasers have something to watch.
Want to jump in with me? Anyone else keen?
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by rikjpool »

Hey man thanks for the offer. I might see you out in the fields though. :)


the latest run has some nice improvment, model wise, for the WNW. :)
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by AUS_Twisted »

I'll be on the road tomorrow, just recharged my USB broadband so ready to go.

Tornado, how much bandwidth will your live webcam use? I could do it to but think it will waste my data to quick for the month.
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Tornado »

AUS_Twisted » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:54 pm wrote:
AUS_Twisted wrote:I'll be on the road tomorrow, just recharged my USB broadband so ready to go.

Tornado, how much bandwidth will your live webcam use? I could do it to but think it will waste my data to quick for the month.
Not sure mate. Will see how it goes. Just done testing and the GPS, sound and video work. Hopefully all works well tomorrow.
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by AUS_Twisted »

I only have 1GB data for the month so I think it will get wasted to quick uploading webcam video, going to do a test tonight.
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by apocalypse »

I'm considering going chasing tomorrow, will probably stay in the Wagga-Henty-Pulletop area where there is nice moisture progged higher up. Will be the furthest chase from home ... if I go, lol. :)
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Meso »

I will be up around the NE of the state tomorrow on prior engagements. Hopefully I'll run in to something along the way. If I was doing nothing else but chasing tomorrow I wouldn't know where to target anyway, maybe up towards to Kerang?

And I don't like the looks of this...

Image
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by crikey »

Yeah MESO that doesn't look promising from that map. However the one Powerstorm posted is far more optimistic
Image

Livinia from Melbourne weather news says a chance of storms for Melbourne but in her recent presentation said nothing about them.
Jane Bunn from WIN news is going for a chance of storms and pointed to the ranges around the s/west and Ballarat ranges.
They both did not seem excited about any strong activity.
The BOM wind forecast map has updated and toned things down just a little for Saturday.
However
if you were to assume that the strongest wind color on the map was an indication of the strongest change then you would be picking for Victoria anyway ,the far north west corner of VIC around Mildura , the western vic and may be Melbourne and west of Geelong. according to wind map
Echuca area looks a better chance at around 10 pm .
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Still a worry that many forecasting tools are indicating something stronger in parts. For what ever reason BOM are not wanting to take those indicators on board.and overruling
Maybe they will hold off until tomorrow morning?
Finding the storm could be like pinning the tail on the donkey..
Noticed that the forecast for Bendigo is only a couple of mm for Saturday
I think Echuca is due for 28 deg C temp tomorrow and that is what was expected before a change some time ago on BOM temp interactive maps
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by Meso »

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/malle ... d-forecast" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well if you believe the above link, Mildura will have a DP of -12c at 3pm! (surely a typo?) and humidity of 5% so i cant imagine much would develop in those conditions lol
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Re: VIC Storms: 17/9 - 19/9

Post by crikey »

MESO
Those figures for Mildura are possible.
Just checked some rel Humidity stats for Pastoral SA Cooper pedy , Woomera
Have a look at this
Today
Woomera spent between 12.30pm and 3.30 pm at a RH of 2% and a dew point of -24.8 deg C :o
and tonight at 9.30pm the RH is 7% and dew point at -14.8 deg C. Now that is dry for night time . It is drier than NT
All the pastoral district is in negative dew points tonight.
Now winds from the pastoral are likely to pass over Mildura way tomorrow possibly .
The wind stream suggests moist air will come up from the south into the pastoral ( very dry dry RH) and flow in a clockwise direction over Mildura ,western NSW and down into parts of VIC.
The change in the pastoral tomorrow sometime could be dramatic.? whether that extends into Mildura and other parts l don't know. The BOM wind map just sees the patches where wind is likely to be higher in the places l mentioned.
I don't know if storms can develop in these conditions . I guess tomorrow l learn.LOL
Anyway learning experience tomorrow

Some good strong storms in Esperance vicinity atm with dew points in the district at 10 deg c. and 12 deg C dew points

33 deg C forecast for Mildura tomorrow. Just on weather update now.
Echuca 28 deg C
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