Lake Eildon

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Sniper
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Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:15 am

With the outstanding analysis & reporting from philp, of Lakeeildon.com, I'm proud to continue providing this community of any updates regarding Lake Eildon.

The Lake has enjoyed a good filling season, reaching a peak of 33.48%. Unless we receive record breaking summer rainfall, the Lake will commence its decline. Hot, dry weather, combined with the North-South pipeline has everyone scratching their head to see how low the Lake will drop.

We have a number of members here who use the Lake frequently, so please take advangtage of the Lake Eildon forum (http://www.lakeeildon.com/board).
Last edited by Sniper on Tue Dec 01, 2009 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sniper
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Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:16 am

Again, many thanks to Philp of LakeEildon.com for this information! :D

In a week with quite a bit of rain, the irrigation pressures downstream have still taken their toll, and Eildon dropped by -0.21% to be 32.75% at present. This is just under half of the average drop for this week (49.10% to be exact). I think the lake is actually rising slightly at the moment, but the overall weekly trend was down slightly.

The indicies are mostly hardly changed, but where they have they have mostly gone down. ATA is 42.96%, down by 0.03%. L5A is 113.51%, down 0.08%. The lake dropped 0.52% on last year to be 10.24% higher. It dropped 0.21% on 1983 levels (25.26% down) and 0.28% on 2003 levels (10.71% down). However, it did gain yet another 0.30% on 2006 levels to be 17.50% lower. If you can imagine our lake with 17 and a half percent less water than now, then you would have a picture of the disaster that 3 years ago was unfolding.

The physical lake level has dropped by 11cm to be 23.20 metres below full.

As this is the last report for November, I can summarise the month, and spring overall. The lake dropped by 0.35% in November, which is the 27th best result ever, and well under half of the average drop for the month (0.90%). Spring overall saw Eildon rise by 12.84% which compares very well... although it is only the 13th best ever, it is very nearly double the average rise of 6.54%. Of course, as we are well aware, this makes up for a dry winter where Eildon only rose this year by 7.75% when the average is 15.71%. So the TOTAL movement since the start of June works out to a rise of 20.59% compared with an average of 22.25%. So, despite the excitement of the last couple of months, we have not quite kept up with the average rise overall...

With rain predicted for the coming days, it is still possible we might see more increases in the lake's level. Let's hope so - December rises are very valuable in terms of the overall levels!
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Karl Lijnders
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Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:17 pm

Wes, pass on my thanks to Phil for his fantastic reports. They have been useful for friends and family of mine wanting to know about the lake. I look forward to his postings and yours in here weekly.

BTW look out for a drier week this week, perhaps 5mm if a thunderstorm develops Thursday afternoon. We may have to wait another week before a rain event steps up into VIC.

The third week of December has provided some whopping rainfall events over the past history so one to watch!!
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Lily
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Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:23 pm

Yep, I read here often and pass the info on to relatives and friends who go up there regularly, so a big thanks to you and Phil from me too :D
Jake Smethurst
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Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:27 pm

Just noticed this back on here.

I'd like to thank Phil and Wes as well. :D I pass this info on to my grandparents who go up around the area at times, and they greatly appreciate it!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
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Sniper
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Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:06 am

Thanks to Philp :)

A reasonable week for this time of year sees Eildon barely change in levels - down only 0.04% to 32.71%. This is a mere 6.6% of the average drop for this time of year, although it still only represents the 15th best result for this week in the lake's history. December is a funny time - usually the lake is going down and historically this has been at quite a significant rate, and yet there are these not infrequent wet Decembers that mean the lake actually rises (or more commonly holds its own). Hence, this result is not record breaking, but it is pleasing.

The indicies mostly reflect the smaller than average rise. Against ATA the lake is up by 0.28% to 43.24%. It is also up against L5A to 113.71%, that is 0.20% higher. It lost some ground to last year by 0.25% to be 9.99% higher, and it also lost ground on 1983 by 0.16% to be 25.42% lower. But it gained on 2003 by 0.15% to be 10.56% lower, and it gained even more ground on 2006 levels, rising 0.58% to be 18.08% higher.

The physical lake level is down slightly by 2cm, so Eildon is now 23.22 metres below full.

The best we can hope for at the moment is a cool wet month so the lake holds its level for a few more weeks. Bearing in mind it is still 25 weeks until we expect the lake to start rising again, it could still fall a long way if the summer turns out to be hot and dry.

Meanwhile - it looks like we have a bit more water for Christmas than we have for the last three years - so hopefully everyone is getting revved up to enjoy it.
Sniper
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Wed Dec 09, 2009 3:04 pm

Just back from a whirlwond trip to the Lake to remove and lay carpet (and drink beer!) Man the Lake is looking magic!! If was like glass, saw one houseboatthat was it!! Would have been perfect to ski/board on. They had around 13.5mm of rain from Monday' event which was terrific. Bushfire affected areas looking green but still a long way to go for Narbethong and surrounds.
Sniper
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Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:20 am

It's a pretty similar report this week to last. Eildon is down, but only by 0.14% to a new level of 32.57%. This drop is just under 20% of the average drop for this week.

The indicies are therefore quite positive. Against ATA, Eildon is up 0.23% to be 43.47%. Against L5A it is up 0.22% to be 114.93%. The lake lost ground on last year's level by 0.04% to be 9.95% higher. It also lost against 1983 levels by 0.53% to be 25.95% lower. But it gained against 2003 by 0.34% to be 10.22% lower, and it gained enormously by 1.28% on 2006's record low, to be 19.36% higher. Can you believe it is only 14 weeks ago that the 2009 level was lower than the 2006 level, but our reasonable spring compared to that very dry spring has turned it around by more than 15% in that time.

The physical lake level has dropped by 7 cm to be 23.29 metres below full.

To keep holding on to the water, we need to have continued rain over the coming weeks. An occasional severe December storm has sometimes seen the lake actually rise in past years - that could be really fun!
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Karl Lijnders
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Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:19 pm

Looked like they had 10-20mm today which is useful ontop of further rain earlier this week.

Signs of heavier rain next week could see the lake remain steady. Need a drop of 100mm to get things rising IMO. But it is doing well. Hoping to get up there for a few days this summer holidays/January.
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Sniper
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Sat Dec 12, 2009 7:27 am

Too true Karl. The locals are pretty happy with the current storage levels (they'd prefer more but are used to lower levels at this time of year). Should be a bumper summer up there. Have noticed a decline in houseboats on the lake and that is confirmed when I checked the locals houseboat agent. Plenty for sale, and at reasonable prices too (ie Under 200k for a 6 berth!)
Dc449
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Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:18 pm

I need the boat to be ready!!!...
fortius quo fidelius
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:07 pm

Image
Under water, I think this is the most Ive seen in the 5 years Ive been going up here. Howes Creek, Mac Millian Point.
Sniper
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Tue Dec 15, 2009 9:27 pm

That is a beautiful photo Shell!!!
Plenty of trees still sticking out, making boating hazardous.
Another 25-40mm by the New Year will absorb most outflows.
Lake currently dropping between 2cm and 5cm a day which is minimal for this time of year.
Sniper
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Thu Dec 17, 2009 9:41 am

Eildon is down, but again by a below average amount. Current level is 32.36%, a drop of 0.21% for the week. This is just over 1/4 of the average drop for this week.

As a result, the indicies are actually quite positive. Against ATA, Eildon is up 0.20% to 43.67%. Against L5A it is up 0.78% to 115.71%. Mixed bag compared to previous years. It is now 9.55% higher than last year (down 0.40%), and 25.99% lower than 1983 levels (down 0.04%). It gained against 2003 levels by 0.57% to be 9.65% lower, and gained 0.50% against 2007 levels to be 19.86% higher.

The physical lake level is 11 cm lower at 23.40 metres below the full water mark (which of course it has not been near for more than 13 years now).

The story is much the same for the week ahead. A good storm could see the lake's fall slow or even stop, but overall we would simply expect it to keep dropping away until May, and hopefully not be too much!
Sniper
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 3:19 pm

Latest EC has 17mm & 84mm for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for Eildon!!!

Tell'em your dreaming, if not I look forward to getting up there on Boxing Day!!
Sniper
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Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:49 pm

Back to reality, OCF is at least giving 6 successive days of precipitation between Christmas Eve & 29/12, totalling 40+mm.
Will be happy to report with those numbers!!
Sniper
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Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:59 pm

Sniper wrote:Back to reality, OCF is at least giving 6 successive days of precipitation between Christmas Eve & 29/12, totalling 40+mm.
Will be happy to report with those numbers!!
OCF now giving the area bugger all. 14mm tomorrow and a thimble for the remainder of the year.
Sniper
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Thu Dec 24, 2009 9:33 am

It's been pretty warm and dry this week and Eildon has responded, dropping by 0.44% to arrive at Christmas Eve at 31.92%. This is around half the average drop for this time of year, but certainly shows our lake on the way down.

The indicies are mostly negative - the lake dropped 0.05% compared to the all time average to 43.62%, and dropped 0.68% compared with the last five year average to 115.03%. It is now 8.95% higher than last year (down by 0.60%) and 19.83% higher than 2006 levels (down by 0.03%). It is 9.95% lower than 2003 levels (down 0.30%) and 25.56% lower than 1983 levels (up 0.43%). It remains the fifth worst year on record (51st out of 55) as it has now for the last 15 weeks, and crystal ball gazing it looks like it will remain at that level for a while to come.

The physical lake level has dropped away of course, down 23 cm to 23.63 metres below full.

From here it is all downhill - don't expect the lake to produce a positive result until at least April, although 10th February 2005 (up by 0.70%) is a reminder that even the strictest of rules can be broken. But we do have lots more water than this time last year, and that has to be good for the holiday season. Enjoy it everyone, and have a great, safe, Christmas!
Sniper
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Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:01 am

Current inflow is 500meg, outflow is 2500meg. This is a decrease of 4cm over the past 24 hours. Eildon is currently at 31.8%.
Sniper
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Fri Jan 01, 2010 9:08 am

28.6mm recorded overnight @ Eildon Fire Tower.
Am expcting the 9am recording for Lake Eildon around the 33mm mark.

EDIT: Only 24mm. Normally the lake records more than the fire tower. Anyway, a great drop with a good chance of another 15-30mm over the next day or so.
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