El Nino For 2012/2013? (New video update 29/7/12)

[GavinPartridge]

Hello all from a cold and rainy United Kingdom

My names Gavin and I'm an amateur weather forecaster.

I just thought you might like to view my recent El Nino video forecasts (which I did in February and April this year) as I know El Nino/La Nina is of great interest to Southern Hemisphere weather fantatics.

I'm hoping to get another video forecast done later this month looking at where we currently stand on an El Nino for 2012/2013, so if your interested I'll let you know when I've got the video done (it'll probably be in a week or two?)

In the meantime, heres the link to my two previous videos:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/enso.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks everyone.

[Rivergirl]

Welcome to the Australian Weather Forum Gavin I'll check out the videos

[GavinPartridge]

Thanks Rivergirl.

This thread is looking very pertitent given the news from the Australian Weather Bureau that El Nino is coming;

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3523615.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Anthony Violi]

Gavin its likely to be a weak Nino, or warm neutral at best.

[Blackie]

Nice explanation and analysis there Gav. Look forward to your next update.

[GavinPartridge]

Hello everbody,

Well finally I've got round to doing my latest El Nino update!

You can find my latest video (and the two earlier vids) here: http://gavsweathervids.com/enso.html

The forecast is for a weak or possible borderline moderate El Nino through the second half of 2012. I don't think it will be a strong event, but as ever with these things we'll have to see how it develops.

Thanks for watching.

[Rivergirl]

Thanks Gavin, I'll check it out

[droughtbreaker]

Welcome to the forum Gavin and thanks for posting the videos.

The feeling at the moment is that the negative PDO phase might be eating into this developing El Nino situation somewhat. It will probably be a very weak event if it occurs and be gone by next Autumn. El Nino events tend to have a lesser effect on eastern Australia over the summer and it is probably developing a little late to have too much of an impact on spring rainfall here (although I do expect it drier than average). It has been very wet here over the past 3 years, this is the wettest winter in my area since 1991 so hopefully the impact of El Nino will be mitigated by the high soil moisture and water storages/streamflows at present.

[Anthony Violi]

MJO is in phase 2 or 3 and forecast to die a slow death over the next 3 weeks over the Indian Ocean.

And with it goes any chance of an El nino, in fact the SST are cooling rapidly now from the West.



Any Westerlies that were there until August 12 are now gone, and in any case they havent halted the westward progression of the cooler water off the South American coast.

The oceans are decoupled from the atmosphere, but strangely enough the oceans are starting to catch up and couple with the atmosphere, rather than what should be happening. Already most of the equator is only 0.5 to 1 degree above normal and being chewed up by the North Equatorial Current. And thats consistent with what occurs in negative PDO, so get used to it for a couple of decades.

Im currently doing a research project that i will reveal in a year or so re the ENSO. More on that another time.

The way this is shaping up its going to have a hard time to be even warm neutral. And in our climate forecast i mentioned the onset of cooling to begin, and it has begun.

[nafets]

Cant see it going negative, but it should become warm/neutral as you said.

[Anthony Violi]

I cant see it staying warm neutral Stefan unless westerly winds develop from somewhere, and it wont be with the MJO.

It might end up becoming cool neutral the way its heading. We have already passed the point of where the atmosphere should have coupled with the oceans.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, it's definitely interesting what's happening atm with that intense cold pool forming off the coast of Julian Assange land (aka. Ecuador) where the ENSO Pacific warm/cold ocean plume spreads out from. IMO, a -ve PDO combined with a very late forming and weak warm event may lead to a non event this time around. It's still up in the air though until we actually see further developments occur.

One thing that is happening right now however is very high -ve temp anomalies right across the north of the continent. This is very concerning because it is keeping the inland of the continent very dry, and therefore cloudless, right at the time when the very beginnings of the summer heat bank starts to build. I'm worried that we could have very nasty heat through the inland by December if a warm neutral to weak El Nino event does develop, and once that happens it takes a hell of a lot to stop it continuing through the hottest months.

Hopefully the -ve PDO will save the day as you have described Anthony.

[Karl Lijnders]

I am going to move this thread into Climatology

I think we are going to see a neutral to cool neutral phase. The +IOD will calm down. It is seasonal and I think over the coming 4-6 weeks will be telling as the area sustains high levels of diurnal heating. The IOD has halved in the past few weeks and there is still and area of 3C below just near the Kimberly coast but it is warming largely from the SW.

Watching closely from the W and NW of the Indian Ocean (SW of Broome) as that will continue to provide moisture for the region IMO.

Southern Ocean is helping too.

Watch the easterlies as well coming this spring and the impending trough.

[Gordon]

From the latest fortnightly report. Nice work by many above for picking this against the official forecasts; same report also has the IOD heading back to neutral:

Pacific eases further away from El Niño thresholds

Issued on Tuesday 9 October | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced over the past fortnight. The tropical Pacific continued its retreat from El Niño thresholds for the second consecutive fortnight (i.e., ocean temperatures cooled), remaining within the neutral range (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels since late July.

[johnno]

Yep IOD will ease late October or early November which is what I've said all along thats the normal time for it to do that

[GavinPartridge]

Hi all,

I'm very late with posting this for you guys, but back in December I did a video raising the white flag on my El Nino forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/enso.html

Thought I better post this to clear the decks before I do my new ENSO prediction for 2013.

I'll try and get the 2013 ENSO video done sometime this week.