Hey
Stratospear
Thanks for that . A great find!
I am glad l took the time to read.
There are some very profound statements in that research , so l took some of what l saw as the most interesting comments from the link you provided above
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and have posted them for the record
The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant
temperature decrease in cycle 24
The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant
temperature decrease in cycle 24
Jan-Erik Solheim*
Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037, Tromsø, Norway
Kjell Stordahl
Telenor Norway, Fornebu, Norway
Ole Humlum
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway
Department of Geology, University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Svalbard
The correlations found between the average temperature in a solar cycle
and the length of the previous cycle, indicates a possible relation between
solar activity and surface air temperature for the locations and areas inves-
tigated.
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The significant linear relations indicate a connection between solar activ-
ity and temperature variations for the locations and areas investigated.
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For the average temperatures of Norway and the 60 European stations,
the solar contribution to the temperature variations in the period investigated
is of the order 40%
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This analysis shows significant dependency between the previous sunspot
cycle length and the temperature. The established model is able to make
significant forecasts with 95% confidence limits for the present sunspot cycle.
There are reasons to believe that these results could be fundamental in further
development of long-term forecasting models for the temperature.
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They found
a much better correlation between the solar cycle length (SCL) and the tem-
perature anomaly.
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Our forecast indicates an annual average temperature drop of 0.9.C in
the Northern Hemisphere during solar cycle 24. For the measuring stations
south of 75N, the temperature decline is of the order 1.0-1.8.C and may
already have already started. For Svalbard a temperature decline of 3.5.C
is forecasted in solar cycle 24 for the yearly average temperature. An even
higher temperature drop is forecasted in the winter months (Solheim et al.,
2012).
Artic amplification due to feedbacks because of changes in snow and ice
cover has increased the temperature north of 70N a factor 3 more than below
60N (Moritz et al., 2002). An Artic cooling may relate to a global cooling
in the same way, resulting in a smaller global cooling, about 0.3-0.5 .C in
SC24.
Our study has concentrated on an e
ect with lag once solar cycle in order
to make a model for prediction. Since solar forcing on climate is present on
many timescales, we do not claim that our result gives a complete picture of
the Sun’s forcing on our planet’s climate.
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Figure 1: Length of solar cycles (inverted) 1700-2009.The last point refers to SC23 which
is 12.2 years long. The gradual decrease in solar cycle length 1850-2000 is indicated with
a straight line.
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This suggests that there may exist a physical mechanism linking
solar activity to climate variations.
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Assuming a relation between the sunspot number and global tempera-
ture, the secular periodic change of SCL may then correlate with the global
temperature, and as long as we are on the ascending (or descending) branches
of the 188 yr period, we may predict a warmer (or cooler) climate.
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A
statistical study of 69 tree rings sets, covering more than 594 years, and SCL
demonstrated that wider tree-rings (better growth conditions) were associ-
ated with shorter sunspot cycles (Zhou and Butler, 1998).
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In addition to the relation between solar cycle length and the amplitude
of the next Rmax, it is reasonable to expect a time lag for the locations
investigated, since heat from the Sun, amplified by various mechanisms, is
stored in the ocean mainly near the Equator, and transported into the North
Atlantic by the Gulf Stream to the coasts of Northern Europe. An example
of time lags along the Norwegian coast is an advective delay between the
Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea of about 2 years determined
from sea temperature measurements (Yndestad et al., 2008).
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Mehl et al. (2009) have shown that two
mechanisms: the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of
shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmospheric sur-
face response, acting together, can amplify a solar cyclical pulse with a factor
4 or more.
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he predicted cooling during the coming Solar cycle (SC) 24 for certain
locations.
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Figure 7: Temperature anomaly for 60 stations on land in Europe, mostly located outside
large cities.
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The temperature measured at Svalbard has already shown sign of
decline as predicted.
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The
sea between the Labrador island and West Greenland has shown a marked
warm anomaly for most of 2010. This has resulted in a temperature increase
the last two years (figure 18), opposite the prediction in table 1.
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Figure 18: Nuuk, Greenland, average yearly temperatures,
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Figure 19: HadCRUT3N, average yearly temperature anomalies,
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the Norwegian and Europe60 average tem-
peratures have already started to decline towards the predicted SC24 values,
while the HadCRUT3N temperature anomaly has shown no such decline yet
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For HadCRUT3N the predicted temperature drop is 0.9.C.
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The Arctic cooling as predicted here may be converted into
a global cooling, which is a factor 2-3 lower due to the Artic amplification of
temperature dierences (Moritz et al., 2002).
Tnis means a global cooling of the order 0.3-0.5.C.
We may also expect a more direct cooling near Equator
due to the response to reduced TSI with the weaker solar cycles in the near
future (Perry, 2007; Mehl et al., 2009; Richards et al., 2009).
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The large increase in SCL from SC22 to SC23 signals a
temperature drop, which may not come as fast as predicted because of the
thermal inertia of the oceans. The warming has taken place over 150 years -
cooling of the same order may require some decades to be realized.
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The temperatures in the North Atlantic and on adjacent land areas are
controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which has in
the instrumental period from 1856 exhibited a 65-80 yr cycle (0.4.C range),
with warm phases at roughly 1860-1880 and 1930-1960 and cool phases dur-
ing 1905-1925 and 1970-1990 (Kerr, 2000; Gray et al., 2004). This period
is proposed related to a 74 yr period, which is a sub harmonic of the 18.6
yrs lunar-nodal-tide (Yndestad et al., 2008).
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This points to ocean currents as
the mechanism of transport of the heat generated at southern locations by
solar radiation.
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de Jager & Duhau (2011) concludes that the solar activity is presently
going through a brief transition period (2000-2014), which will be followed
by a Grand Minimum of the Maunder type, most probably starting in the
twenties of the present century. Another prediction, based on reduced solar
irradiance due to reduced solar radius, is a series of lower solar activity cycles
leading to a Maunder like minimum starting around 2040 (Abdussamatov,
2007).
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in the period 1856-1970, the Sun cannot have contributed
to more than 30% of the global temperature increase taken place since then,
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From correlation studies of 7 (not all global) temperature series for the
period 1610-1970 de Jager et al. (2010) found a solar contribution of 41%
to the secular temperature increase. Our results are somewhat higher for
Northern Hemisphere locations in the period 1850-2008.
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From correlation studies of 7 (not all global) temperature series for the
period 1610-1970 de Jager et al. (2010) found a solar contribution of 41%
to the secular temperature increase. Our results are somewhat higher for
Northern Hemisphere locations in the period 1850-2008.
...............................................
...............We may therefore suggest that SCL in some way
is related to astronomical forcing.
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Satellite observations by the Spectral Imager Monitor (SIM) indicate
that variations in solar ultraviolet radiation may be larger than previously
thought, and in particular, much lower during the recent long solar minimum.
Based on these observations Ineson et al. (2011) have driven an ocean-climate
model with UV irradiance. They demonstrate the existence of a solar climate
signal that a
ects the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and produced the
three last cold winters in Northern Europe and in the United States.
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Significant linear relations are found between the average air temperature
in a solar cycle and the length of the previous solar cycle (PSCL) for 12 out
of 13 meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic.
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For the average temperatures of Norway and the 60 European stations,
the solar contribution to the temperature variations in the period investigated
is of the order 40%. An even higher contribution (63-72%) is found for
stations at Faroe Islands, Iceland and Svalbard. This is higher than the 7%
attributed to the Sun for the global temperature rise in AR4 (IPCC, 2007).
About 50% of the HadCRUT3N temperature variations since 1850 may be
attributed solar activity. However, this conclusion is more uncertain because
of the strong autocorrelations found in the residuals.