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Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

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Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

Ken Ring who predicted the Christchurch earthquakes has predicted another one in two weeks
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Lily »

Yep, and more activity possible right up to the 18th April.

I return from Queenstown on the 16th April :| :P
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

That's typical for you Lily, you certainly don't lead an uneventful life :) Hopefully it will have settled down by the time I get there :)
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaki ... 6015375215
A NEW Zealand mathematician who predicted the deadly Christchurch quake has terrified Kiwis with news another will strike the city in two weeks.

Popular long-range weather forecaster Ken Ring is warning that a second jolt will hit the already-devastated South Island city on March 20.

Mr Ring, who lives in Auckland, uses the moon, sun and tidal activity for the basis of his theories, which have been dismissed by scientists.

His warning is clear.

"If I lived in Christchurch, I'd get out for a few days over that time, go camping, visit friends, just get out and keep safe," he said.

"And if you don't live there, stay away."

His frightening words have panicked New Zealanders, with hundreds using Twitter and Facebook to brand his theories as "crackpot", "wacky" and scientifically baseless.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

Despite this, his following is substantial, with more than 5000 New Zealanders - including farmers, gardeners and even disaster specialists - signed up to receive his weather predictions.

On Valentine's Day, he issued a tweet stating that conditions were "potent" for a quake in Christchurch between February 15 and 25.

A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck on February 22, killing as many as 240 people.

Eerily, he warned people to watch for "special signs", such as silent birds or scared pets, and said "stay away from old cracked buildings".

His words have sparked ferocious debate. Some, like prominent current affairs host John Campbell, believe his frightening words prey on vulnerable people struggling to recover in the wake of the disaster.

But when Campbell threw tough questions at Mr Ring on national television on Monday, giving him no chance to answer, hundreds of Kiwis came to the defence of the so-called Moon Man.

Campbell was forced to apologise, admitting he didn't believe Mr Ring's theories.

"But many people I've spoken to do - and Mr Ring's predictions terrify them," the broadcaster said, before begging him to "stop scaring people".

And scaring them he is. Elderly Australian Gloria Cotton survived the quake and said that predictions of another were "ghastly".

"Tell them to stop, please just stop," the 84-year-old said from her damaged Christchurch home.

"Life is so hard anyway. We can't cope with hearing about another one."

Mr Ring for his part said he believed most people would rather be safe than sorry.

"If the information was there wouldn't you rather have access to it?

"How terrible would it be if I knew all the seismic signs were there and I didn't say anything? I couldn't live with myself.

"If you'd rather not know, then please don't read it."

The scientists, however, remain unconvinced.

Dr Mark Quigley, senior lecturer in active tectonics and geomorphology at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, said Mr Ring's assertions were "ludicrous".

"Vague quotes about dates of 'increased' activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations, and exact times do not constitute prediction," Dr Quigley said.

"This is opportunistic and meaningless self promotion during a time of national crisis.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by crikey »

There are plenty who mock Ken Finger but the facts are He got it right. and the seismologists predicted only a 4% chance of earthquake in that week for Christchurch so we must give him some credence even though we might not understand his research
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

Hi crikey. Yes you're right there.

I have a link to his latest prediction but the site seems to have been taken down

http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleSh ... &type=home
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

Crikey I just found this web site and have posted it under the Japanese earthquake thread as was having a discussion with Petros and Jake so I'll post it here

I just read this
Hmm someone posted this comment which I thought was interesting as he was obviously referring to the polar shift which is said to occur soon:
Ironic, but I read today that a top, USA geo-scientist predicts a major earthquake(s) in the world (circa March 20), which apparently has to do with an exchange of polarity (whatever the hell that means!!), occurring at both the North and South poles, around this time
.

It was posted on this site about the interview with Ken Ring in New Zealand

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread668895/pg1
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by crikey »

Thanks rivergirl for interesting links re K Finger
There are many predictions abounding for the next couple of years like the mayan calender etc.
I am not pagan and do not follow, but as a christian l do believe in the catastrophic events of the end times ushering in the coming of Christ and new earth and kingdom etc. Of course the biblical viewpoint is that these events are caused by human sin .
There is a christian prophet from kenya who has made some very uncanny predictions that have come true. He has an impressive record.
The one that concerns me is a prophetic word regarding an earthquake / tsunami generated from between Tasmania and Australia l think bass strait.
He made this one in Sept 2010 l believe and in the past the longest prediction to come true was 12 months. I haven't watched this you tube because l haven't got a sound card in this old computer. Love to know what it says.
Here is the link
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I am very concerned as my daughter lives in Phillip Island.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by apocalypse »

The magnetic poles of the sun flip every solar cycle, which occurs around every 11-12 years. Apparently the next one is supposed to happen next year, but I don't see how it will be any different. It can also happen on Earth too (albeit very, very rare). I haven't heard of any predictions for this so they are probably talking about the sun.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks for the info apocalypse. Crikey, I'll go and listen to the video. Just wanted to say that I know about the undersea volcano between Tasmania and Victoria. Apparently it's been bubbling away. I heard a few years ago that it would erupt in 100 years but by the sounds of this it won't be that long. There is also a fault line between Mt Martha and The Dandenongs. We have a holiday house at Mt Martha and live in The Dandenongs. Hopefully when the volcano goes it won't affect us too much.

Ken Ring's prediction re Christchurch is now working again
http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleSh ... &type=home
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

I just listened to the video. He talks about an earthquake between Australia and Tasmania and then a 100 metre???? tsunami is going to hit Hobart. It seems strange that a tsunami would affect Hobart down the bottom. It's really hard to listen to so couldn't make out a lot of it. Hope it doesnt happen over Easter as I'm in Hobart then. Thanks for sharing. Interesting to see his other predictions on the same page.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by crikey »

Rivergirl. Thanks for watching that for me. I need to upgrade computer but building a home so l can't yet. This Kenyan fella did not predict the Japanese one though!Although just about everything else. I checked earthquake activity there was a 2.4 last week in bass strait.

http://www.ga.gov.au/bin/earthquake.pl? ... tation=MOO" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But l agree l cannot see how Hobart could be affected from a quake in bass strait? The size you quoted seems laughable...100metres. That would have to be a volcano and not an earthquake surely? That is 10 times the size of Japanese Tsunami . The first signs of any decent rumbles and l'm getting my daughter out! I really hope he got this one wrong!
Been saying my prayers!
Hey weren't you going to Vanuatu where the cyclone and volcano were? and Now Hobart??
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Lily »

I really don't know how much faith (excuse the pun) I place in prophets, but nevertheless, here's my take on what he says:


The video is a little hard to hear at times, but he's referring to Tassie as Hobart (and sometimes vice versa), but basically when he's saying Hobart he's meaning the "whole island", ie. Tasmania. He refers to a rupture deep on the ocean floor causing a 100 metre high tsunami and says a number of times that the wave will move from Australia towards "Hobart" (Tasmania) and wash over the island.

The very end of the video is very hard to understand, I don't know if he's giving dates or what he's saying? He made these predictions in Sept, Oct and Nov 2010.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by crikey »

Hi Lily. Thanks for your read. Earthquakes propagate tsunami in all directions and bass strait is relatively shallow. No idea? :? I hope we never get to find out. By the way l checked Ken Fingers earth quake timing chart and Japan was not in the time period of high risk ( 11th march)
(And wasn't an East /west fault line). So his model does not sit comfortably with what happened in japan.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks for explaining a bit more Lily. I had so much trouble hearing. I found it weird he was saying between Australia and Hobart but not everyone knows Hobart is part of Australia lol Also 100metre tsunami is a bit laughable. Yep I must admit I'm a bit of a skeptic on most prophets but tend to take notice when prophecies are coming true. Well there is a volcano like I said in Bass strait so it could be that erupting. Hope not.

That's interesting about the east/west fault line for Japan as that's the same as Christchurch. It was a new fault line they found that went east to west. I looked on the map but those regions aren't parralel.

Yep I live dangerously crikey. I'm going to Hobart at Easter, Vanuatu and the volcano in May and Queenstown and Christchurch in October and November :)
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Anthony Violi »

Yes thats close to the most ridiculuos thing i have ever heard.

Ken Ring got lucky. Tectonics as far as i know dont move in reaction to lunar or solar influences. Nor should they when they are deep underground,and have always moved. But we do know is that the ring of fire is very unstable.

I would ask Ken Ring what fault line it may be that a huge earthquake and 100m high tsunami would trigger such a thing, given we sit on a huge plate with little fault lines. I think he is a loony.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Anthony Violi »

More info:

Large earthquakes repeatedly occur along a large-scale fault, and the entire recurrence process includes the following stages:

(I) fault healing and re-strengthening just after the previous earthquake occurred,
(II) accumulation of the elastic strain energy with tectonic stress loading,
(III) local concentration of deformation and rupture nucleation at the final stage of tectonic stress buildup in which an enough amount of the strain energy has been stored,
(IV) mainshock earthquake rupture, and
(V) rupture arrest and its aftereffect.

An earthquake cannot occur without any accumulation of the elastic strain energy in the medium surrounding the fault. In this sense, stage (II) may be regarded as the preparatory process in a broad sense, which is characterized by the process of elastic deformation. In this stage, tectonic stress level is below critical, and the amount of the stored strain energy is insufficient to cause the ensuing large earthquake on the same fault.

As the tectonic stress continues to build up, the stress eventually reaches a critical level. At this final preparatory stage (III), an enough amount of the strain energy has been stored. Laboratory studies demonstrate that local concentration of deformation inevitably occurs and rupture begins to nucleate if the fault is characterized by mechanical and/or structural inhomogeneity. The nucleation may be accelerated by a triggering effect of stress transfer due to fault-fault interaction. Fluid-solid rock interaction may be activated at this stage as well because of high tectonic stress, and the nucleation may also be accelerated by activation of the fluid-rock interaction. In spite of these possible accelerating effects, a large earthquake will be preceded by a slow growth of the nucleation, though the time to the ensuing earthquake may be shortened by these possible effects. This stage may be regarded as the preparatory process in a narrow sense.

The process of earthquake dynamic rupture during which short-period seismic waves are generated is characterized by rapid stress drop with ongoing slip on the fault, and almost complete release of the stored strain energy.

The phase of rupture arrest and its aftereffect are characterized by time-dependent stress relaxation and stress transfer, and as a consequence, aftershocks and aftereffect of crustal deformation follow.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

AV it wasn't Ken Ring that said that. Crikey was talking about a Christian prophet from Kenya on youtube that made that prediction about 100 metre tsunami to hit Hobart. Thanks for the earthquake info, I know a bit about earthquakes but good to see it laid out technically for people to understand.

Btw crikey I'm not a pagan, I'm very spiritual.
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Anthony Violi »

Sorry Robyn i didnt read it thoroughly enough...i still think he got lucky and is a loony. Lol..
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Re: Another big earthquake predicted for Christchurch

Post by Rivergirl »

lol AV
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