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Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

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Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Ken »

For anyone who's interested:

"Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover. High temperatures in Nebraska yesterday were in the 60s, more than 30° above average.

It has been remarkable to look at the radar display day after day and see virtually no echoes, and it is very likely that this has been the driest first week of January in U.S. recorded history.

The strangely warm and dry start to winter is not limited to the U.S--all of continental Europe experienced well above-average temperatures during December."


Full article here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2010
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by johnno »

Yes Ken but you have failed to mention that alot of Central and Southern/Eastern Asia, Northern Africa & alot of the Middle East (which is a massive area covering those 3 areas) has seen a colder than normal Winter so far so I guess it evens out. Northern Africa & the Middle East is seeing a colder than normal Winter so far due to the fact that most of Europe has been warmer & I have no proof but perhaps the same is happening with North America and alot of Asia.


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images ... b.rnl.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by johnno »

Interms of the Europe/Northern Afrcia/Middle East relation.. This Winter so far has been the exact opposite of the 2009/10 Winter when alot of Europe was colder than normal but Northern Africa & the Middle East constantly saw above average tempertures most of that Winter.. This Winter (so far) it seems to have flip flopped

EDIT: There also must be a link with Greenland who so far is having a severe Cold Winter alot colder than normal which hasn't happened in Years.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Ken »

johnno » Sun Jan 08, 2012 1:38 pm wrote:
johnno wrote:Yes Ken but you have failed to mention that alot of Central and Southern/Eastern Asia, Northern Africa & alot of the Middle East (which is a massive area covering those 3 areas) has seen a colder than normal Winter so far so I guess it evens out.
I haven't really "failed to mention" anything. I posted that article because I thought it was interesting in its own right - it wasn't supposed to be some pro/anti global warming message. It's unfortunate that every time a cold or wet weather event happens, there's a lot of hype around it and nothing is questioned but every time there's a warm event, it's played down and the coldness in some other area is always mentioned to try and counter it.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by johnno »

Ken relax, You stated the fact that Europe and N America has been warmer than normal I stated the fact the other areas in the Northern Hemisphere have been colder than normal & I prooved it with my link & instead of disscussing what I said and put up you turn it into a AGW debate you had to mention it didn't you & you attack me about this Global warming crap.. I couldn't care less about global warming or cooling I stay away from all the arguments if you bothered to notice in the past whether in this forum or other forums that you go too, The facts speak for themselves which I put up thats not my problem if you chose to ignore it & don't like it and choose to attack me instead of discussing what I said and post about the subject itself. I'm not here for an AGW argument and if your looking for one your barking up the wrong tree... But people have the right to know the full story of whats going on Worldwide (or in this case the Northern Hemisphere) instead of half the story and I am here to bring all the facts (whether there Warm/dry temps facts, Warm/wet temps facts OR Cold/wet facts & Cold/dry facts) whether you like it or not.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Lily »

I think I speak for everyone when I say that we all very much appreciate and respect both of you posting here on AWF and giving of your time and knowledge. I sincerely hope that you both can allow each other the courtesy of conveying your firmly held opinions and beliefs for the benefit of all members, without allowing the discussion to degenerate any further.

Thank you.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by crikey »

I have found Jeff masters writing/analysis and blogs the best l have ever read. He really is a great analyst.and communicator. :P
Thanks Ken. A reminder to visit his blogs more often.

Yes l did find this interesting. In particular his report on the Jet stream

December 2011 jet stream pattern the most extreme on record
The cause of this warm first half of winter is the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (which can be thought of as the North Atlantic's portion of the larger-scale AO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The AO and NAO have significant impacts on winter weather in North America and Europe--the AO and NAO affect the path, intensity, and shape of the jet stream, influencing where storms track and how strong these storms become. During December 2011, the NAO index was +2.52, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The AO during December 2011 had its second most extreme December value on record, behind the equally unusual December of 2006. These positive AO/NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S. and Europe.

AND at the same time the

Wild swings in the December Arctic Oscillation
This winter's remarkable AO/NAO pattern stands in stark contrast to what occurred the previous two winters, when we had the most extreme December jet stream patterns on record in the opposite direction (a strongly negative AO/NAO). The negative AO conditions suppressed westerly winds over the North Atlantic, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Western Europe, bringing unusually cold and snowy conditions. The December Arctic Oscillation index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years, with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record. Unfortunately, we don't understand why the AO varies so much from winter to winter, nor why the AO has taken on such extreme configurations during four of the past six winters. Climate models are generally too crude to make skillful predictions on how human-caused climate change may be affecting the AO, or what might happen to the AO in the future. There is research linking an increase in solar activity and sunspots with the positive phase of the AO. Solar activity has increased sharply this winter compared to the past two winters, so perhaps we have seen a strong solar influence on the winter AO the past three winters. Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to the negative (cold) phase of the AO, like we observed the previous two winters. Those winters both had near-record low amounts of sunspot activity, so sea ice loss and low sunspot activity may have combined to bring a negative
-----------------------------------------------
I get the feeling that when we finally get to predict the Jetstream pattern ( shape and amplitude beyond 2 weeks) and the Artic oscilation and its southern hemisphere counterpart the antartic oscillation we will be in a great position to do some serious seasonal climate modelling.
I also wondered if these two weather variables are related. For example when AO anomaly is extreme then so is the Jetsstream anomaly.?
Is there any correlation between jetstream pattern and AO and AAO anomalies.

I also found it interesting that johnno said that there is an inverse relationship in other parts of the world.
quote
"This Winter so far has been the exact opposite of the 2009/10 Winter when alot of Europe was colder than normal but Northern Africa & the Middle East constantly saw above average tempertures most of that Winter.. This Winter (so far) it seems to have flip flopped"

So when American N/west and europe winter is warmer than average then the north africa and middle east is colder.?

Yep.. Very interesting! There's sure to be some correlation studies on this topic
I don't really follow world climate much at all but good to learn something new
Exxtending this idea of wild jetstreams and strong AAO's we have a bit of that hapening in the southern hemisphere atm
I think the jetstream , sub tropical at least has been quite out of bounds and the AAO has been strongly positive in December at the same time

I noticed Jeff masters was prepared to link some of this activity to solar activity and acknowledged our lack of understanding of jetstream forecsting and AO 's? All interesting and controversial. Love it!
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Ken »

Yep Crikey, Jeff Masters is indeed a great communicator and his posts have been followed by many over the years. And yes, whoever can come up with a way to be able to deal with chaos theory and consistently predict the position of the jetstreams and associated longwave patterns beyond a couple or so weeks will be a pioneer. In terms of timeframes beyond a week, today's modeling is now advanced enough that it can often give us a rough idea of weather patterns anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months (or longer for climate change) but if the synoptic forcing/signal causing these conditions is weak or the climate system is "balanced on a knife's edge" (situations which often happen), it degrades accuracy. And the further you try to look ahead in time, the bigger the time intervals you have to use to get an idea of the conditions.

As it stands at the moment, we know about all sorts of cycles/oscillations in the climate system... we can even do a bit of "nowcasting" based on what parts of cycles we're currently in - the trick is to continue improving modeling to further enhance their accuracy and to try to come up with additional ways to help consistently predict when current cycles/patterns will end, when the next one will start, how strong/weak it will be, etc (since many cycles or oscillations have erratic and seemingly random timeframes).

P.S. re the flip-flopping of very warm and very cold conditions across latitudes, that's a common occurrence when the jetstreams meander N/S a lot. This also happens during strongly negative phases of the AO/NAO when cold air surges south over low latitudes of the US or Europe while warm air affects high latitude areas like Canada (a bit like opening a fridge door - cold air spills out while warm air comes in to take its place).
Last edited by Ken on Sun Jan 08, 2012 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks Lily and thanks to Ken, johhno and Crikey for your discussion on this topic.

I have a friend out from Switzerland atm and he has asked me what the winter will be like in Switzerland as he is a keen skier. I gather from the info posted here that it will be warmer than last winter, the opposite to last year so I will let him know that. Thank you.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by crikey »

Hi Robyn before you tell your friend about snow for Switzerland , it is probably useful to know that the comments made by J Masters are broad generalizations or trends.
There is currently snow on the slopes in Switzerland and the forecast is for a storm and more more falls expected.
In fact this snow depth report from swiss ski fields indicating some VERY extensive and healthy totals
some places up to 4metres depth a few as low as 45cm
This is a great link for your friend Robyn
http://www.j2ski.com/snow_forecast/Switzerland/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
An anomaly for less slow doesn't mean there isn't any if you know what l mean. Its a bit like in VIC . For December 2011,the south west was dryer anomaly but only a few hundred km's east the rain was better. There will be localized variations in snow falls in those areas

Here is a map of snow cover anomalies published by Rutgers University: global snow lab
The various pixel colors indicating where the snow is less or more than the mean.As you can see there is localised variation ( the map is too small and doesn't show the districts very well at all. They need a map like our thunderstorm map..Google with zoom in feature. LOL)
The red/orange pixels indicate below the mean snow cover l believe and the blue pixels indicate above the mean
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 2&ui_set=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Departure from Normal - SNOW COVER ANOMALIES
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... 2&ui_set=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Image


Rutgers also published some historical time series snow cover anomalies. ( from 1967 t0 2011..44 years of records..a small time scale sample )
Their findings l find interesting.

They have found the snow cover has declined significantly in the northern hemisphere in spring
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ch ... i_season=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

image
Image


However in other seasons the trend is different and significantly so
In winter a slight increase in snow cover since 1967
image
Image


In the fall( autumn) , the mean has remained constant with no trend either up or down
Image


For EURASIA ( whever that is.. LOL )
The time series trends are
Winter : slight decline in snow cover since 1967
Fall : slight decline
spring : very strong decline in snow cover

For Nth America the seasonal trend has been
Winter snow cover : a significant increase
Spring : a significant decline in snow cover
Fall : A significant increase in snow cover


Quite amazing don't you think. The explanation and reasons for this seasonal shift in snow cover would be fascinating.


Anomalies in Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
Long term mean time series
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/anomali ... snow-cover" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

image
Image

The anomaly map below indicates the strong swings in snow cover from year to year .Which seems to be quite a 'normal/ natural' occurence. Peaks and troughs in snow cover
Some years very lean on snow and other years a bumper boom year. But according to this source(rutgers) the overall trend is for a decline in snow cover
image
Image

Rutgers home page
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

cheers.
Last edited by crikey on Fri Jan 27, 2012 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by johnno »

This report backs up what I said a couple of weeks ago


It has been warm and dry in many land regions over the Eurasia, eastern US, and Canadian region for the 2011-12 NDJ period (based on data up till the first two weeks of January 2012) (see Figs 1 and 2). Below-average temperature was found over northern Africa adjoining Middle East, Central Asia with the most dominant signal in Kazakhstan, East Asia, eastern Siberia, Alaska, Greenland, and most of southern North America. In particular, many regions in north and pockets of southeast India are experiencing coldest winter in 50-100 year period. Most of India, Indochina, much of North America, and a part of southern South America saw drier than normal conditions. Surplus rainfall was found over the western Indian Ocean, Australia, the Philippines, South and East China Sea, and a part of Japan.


http://www.apcc21.org/en/services/forec ... t_monthly/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Anthony Violi »

Wouldnt worry about the warm start to the winter, Europe is about to get another dec 2010 episode, which was record and unprecedented cold.

Falling into line nicely with a very large plunge of global temps, well into the negatives now.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Rivergirl »

Crikey, I'm so sorry I didn't respond to all your information. I only just saw it then, I don't know why. Thanks for all the trouble you went to. It's fantastic. That's interesting info too johnno, Ken and AV.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Anthony Violi »

You wont see much of this in the mainstream yet because it doesnt really suit the global warming agenda, but we are about to see history in Europe. And the globe warming will be a distant memeory in a few years time, except for el nino events but thats another topic.

It looks like it will dwarf 2010 episode, and bring the coldest weather ever recorded in modern times if it comes off.

Also, temps globally have plunged this month as the cold Pdo begins to kick in, could well be the biggest monthly drop in 30 years of satelitte temps.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by crikey »

HI ..AV

What is the PDO?

What is the cause of the cooling and cold snap you are referring to..?

I noticed the Artic oscilllation had a large negative anomaly in the last cold snap and something to do with jetstreams and the la Nina continuing longer than expected and some thing to do with solar minimums and aerosols

I am still trying to get my head around the factors that cause these events . I get the feeling you are eluding to another weather variable?
curious :?

Some of the reading l have started reckons that when this la Nina disappears and we get our next El Nino we are in for a new world high temp anomaly?

EUROPE forecast models
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecas ... urope.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Global temp anomalies 2011
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2011/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Anthony Violi »

PDO is the pacific decadal oscillation, lasting around 30 years, coinciding with global temps going up and down as the pdo turns warm and cold.

The theory is the warm PDO is dominated by El Nino, and a cold PDO is predominately La Nina, hence why we had cooling for 32 years from 1944, despite emissions skyrocketing after the war as industry boomed, and then increased from late 70s until 1998, then have flattened and are now starting a downtrend.

Forget Giss, RSS or UAH are the only datasets unadjusted, GISS is a total and utter lie thanks to Jim Hansen. Hansenb said by 2008 Manhattan would be 3 stories underwater with sea level rising. However, i just checked and they are still safe and sound, and Al Gore is fine in one his beachfront mansions as sea levels have risen maybe 1mm a year since 1998.

Anyway, AO is generally the reason for the cold through the NH latitudes, but this is different, the globe is now really starting to respond, with the cold anomalies really getting much much stronger.

Johnno actually studies these things very closely and he can explain maybe a bit better, but some of the forecasts for this coming fortnight for Europe are just scary.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks for explaining that AV, will be interesting to see what happens.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Ken »

Anthony Violi » Fri Jan 27, 2012 9:54 pm wrote:
Anthony Violi wrote: However, i just checked and they are still safe and sound, and Al Gore is fine in one his beachfront mansions as sea levels have risen maybe 1mm a year since 1998.
The total rise in sea level between the year 1870 and 2000 as measured by data (via the CSIRO) from coastal tide gauge records was 200mm while more recent sea level rise from 1993 to 2010 was 65mm as measured by accurate satellite altimetry - this may not sound enormous to the average person but as with most things to do with climate change, there's a lot more to it than first meets the eye... it actually has a much bigger impact than it sounds due to a very simple reason - the shallow gradient of most typical beaches means even a few cm of sea level rise (vertically) causes water to invade many metres inland from the shore. You can do the (simple) math to work it out. Things like storm surges add to this background rise during these events. One can talk about data all day til the cows come home but it's not until you get out from behind the computer into the real world, physically go out to low lying islands around the world only just above sea level and see with your own eyes at how much beach and people's property have been carved away more and more every year and talk to longtime locals that really makes you appreciate the data. Same thing goes for ice and snow melt e.g. seeing photos or real life experience of witnessing ever-shrinking glaciers, ice and snow on mountains around the world (like Mt Kiliminjaro where 80% of the ice has disappeared since the start of the 20th century), seeing the slow upward creep of raw temperature data of most synoptic stations around the world, etc.

Anyway back on topic, the EC extreme forecast index maps are showing very cold anomalies to spread across much of Europe this week, especially eastern and southern areas associated with the 1st time this NH winter that the Arctic Oscillation stays in negative territory (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif). Week 2 to 4 guidance from ensembles suggest moderate probabilities of these cold anomalies to continue til at least around mid Feb at this stage. Will be interesting to watch.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by Anthony Violi »

Im sure it is Ken, but not quite the 3 storeys high that Hansen predicted.

His models are a complete joke, and he should be sacked on the spot, as we are even lower than his zero emissions estimate.
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Re: Remarkably warm start to winter for US/Europe

Post by crikey »

As well as the amazing cold anomalies in Europe it appears the US is experiencing what could be some close to record warm anomalies so far this winter
and as a stark contrast in ALASKA they are equaling records for extreme cold anomalies.


This is a very informative article discussing the incredible contrast of cold and warm anomalies in the US and ALASKA

Just check out some of those cold temps in ALASKA
Record Warmth in Eastern U.S.; Temps Tumble in Alaska
To read the full article this is the link
http://www.worldweatherpost.com/2012/01 ... in-alaska/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some extracts
While Alaska continues to to suffer from record cold and snow, much of the rest of the country continues to experience a year without winter.
This week, it’s likely that warm temperature records will be broken throughout the eastern U.S., with forecast highs in New York City approaching 60°F on Tuesday and Wednesday, and reaching the mid-60s in Washington, D.C. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), record highs may also be set today in Islip, N.Y., and Bridgeport, CT.
.............
The Weather Service reported that January 2012 will go down in history as the coldest January on record in several Alaskan communities, particularly those in the western interior part of the state. This will be the coldest January in Galena, Nome and Bettles, the NWS found. In Galena the average temperature through January 30 was -33.5°F.

While the high temperature in Washington is forecast to reach the mid-60s Tuesday, the temperature in Bettles is projected to top out at 45 to 50 below zero, and fall to 60 below zero at night. Ouch.

The all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. was -80°F in Prospect Creek, AK. According to Weather Underground, that may have been threatened on Jan. 28, when a reading of -79°F was recorded near the same location.


Amazing cold anomlaly in ALASKA
Image

SOME CONTROVERSY regarding the possible lowest temp ever to be recorded in US Alaska

http://www.worldweatherpost.com/2012/01 ... in-alaska/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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