Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs)

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Jake Smethurst
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Sun Dec 05, 2010 10:57 pm

Well, considering we will start to feel the affects of the approaching trough tomorrow across most parts of Victoria, I thought I better start up an appropriate thread for the up-coming week. It is going to be massive in-terms of rainfall towards Tuesday night and Wednesday/Thursday. But lets not forget thunderstorm action across most parts tomorrow, particularly west, with flash flooding and large hail likely. I will get my storm charts out at around 11.30 AM again.
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HarleyB
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Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:01 pm

Just a quick question Jake, will the storms be slow-movers again tomorrow? ie. Could they dump 40-50mm in isolated locations?
Jake Smethurst
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Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:13 pm

Hi mate.

Looking at the latest model data, it looks like they will be relatively slow moving again, however I think faster than today's activity. If you look at how slow moving Vic's storms were today compared to over in eastern South Australia which were quite a bit faster, that also says something to me of what the speed of movement will be occurring tomorrow. But generally, they could still drop up to 30mm of rainfall over local areas. Looking at steering though, its a little variable still, but by nature thunderstorm movement tomorrow will be as follows:

Western districts: Towards the south to southeast.
Central and Eastern districts: Towards the southwest.

I can't work out speeds likely of storms yet. Am still learning a lot of stuff, but mate I think a little faster than today's. Will update you in the morning again with the latest data.

Hope that helps.

I hope they are quicker than today's though on a personal note ... might be able to get down here then!! :P
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HarleyB
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Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:29 pm

Thanks mate, yeah that helps, we really dont need any quick dumps of rain tomorrow or Tuesday round here
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Petros
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:00 am

A day of bleak cool low easterly cloud and stiff easterly breeze, but less drizzle than yesterday. Sun didnt break through at all yest, and possibly wont today by current conditions.
AmaroK
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:34 am

Lovely morning here in Bayswater. Only scattered cloud to my north, and virtually no wind at all. Currently 24.8 dp 16.9. Very keen to see what develops (and where) over the coming hours.
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Supercellimpact
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:39 am

The sky is covered with high cloud , cannot see storms development here.
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Karl Lijnders
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:57 am

SCI it will erupt underneath. The cloud is thin. We saw on Friday last week storms erupt under a mid level deck. This is nothing and your closer to the trigger.

Scattered cu over the north looks promising. Winds turning ENE here with strong ESE winds over the south. Convergence developing.
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Supercellimpact
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:11 am

Storms firing around ouyen, north of swan Hill.
Twister
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:47 am

Yeah looking good mostly cloudy here atm but

28/19c its so so moist here any storms will bring huge falls

Hoping to watch it all explode in a few hours in the clear air to my NW
Now Living in Wet QLD
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Anthony Violi
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:02 pm

Just noticed the convection....instead of lots of small Cu, they are big flat based Cu.

I think wherever storms develop today there will be enormous flooding. The atmosphere is primed, its 28 already, and there are towers in every direction, with great steering out of the North. Slow movers too so huge dumpers will form.
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Nick Sykes
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:05 pm

I have to agree, looks great today, highly unstable, nice convergence through the suburbs, steering from the NNE, pretty much perfect for big storms in Melbourne. I have the day off so will be on the look out.

Nick
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Anthony Violi
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:11 pm

Likewise Nick, enjoying an RDO and just waiting for this to get cracking.

Stormchart for today.

IDV65758
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:50 am Monday, 6 December 2010,
Valid until midnight on Monday, 6 December 2010.
Scattered thunderstorms through most of Victora, with high precipitation falling from any activity that develops, but particularly through the severe thunderstorm likely area marked. Severe thunderstorms that develop in this area also have the potential to have large hail, and to a lesser extent damaging wind gusts.


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Petros
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:24 pm

Looks fanstastic for storms, and even in this area - which our BOM gave no hope any further S than Omeo/Licola this morning. But we currently have 2 storms in action N of Dargo and N of Ensay. These are both inching SSW'wards.

The easterly wind has stopped, the 100% cloud cover seems lighter and higher over past 2 hours. 24C with 18C dewpoint.

Got all the lawns done, and will be heading up to do some work at the golf club this arvo. I did the same thing later last Thursday and got "stormed off" - 20mm there and 11mm at my place. A repeat performance would be nice.
Pane
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:32 pm

G'day

Got to love picnic day!!!!!

Just washed the car, very warm and sticky out there. Cant see much from my vantage point here atm. Hopefully it fires up.

Looks like some things firing up between horsham and birchip :D

Cheers
Last edited by Pane on Mon Dec 06, 2010 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jake Smethurst
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:35 pm

And my thunderstorm chart for today. Very similar to the BoM's. Apologies for it being late ... had unexpected jobs this morning.

Thunderstorm Forecast - Day 1 (Monday) Issued 12:15 PM EDT 6/12/2010

A strong trough of low pressure over South Australia is expected to approach western Victoria. The moisture content is quite high across Victoria today in a continued north to northeasterly airflow, and surface temperatures are expected to remain hot whilst there are colder temperatures aloft. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop over most parts of Victoria this afternoon, but particularly over the western districts and on the ranges. There is also the chance that thunderstorm activity will spread over the border from South Australia. Severe thunderstorms are also likely across the state today, particularly in the area indicated below where the strongest instability is likely this afternoon. Flash flooding and large hailstones will be the biggest risk. As for steering of thunderstorms today, it is expected to be slower moving over central and eastern Victoria, with movement to the southwest. As for western Victoria, activity is generally expected to move a little faster and towards the south to southeast. At the issue time of this chart, thunderstorms were already evident over northwest Victoria, moving southeast, and over eastern Victoria, generally remaining stationary.
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Anthony Violi
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:36 pm

Love even more Pane when you dont go!

Convection starting to grow now, awaiting the first echoes in Central.
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johnno
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:42 pm

Looking good


Flood watches are now being issued by the BOM
wolfcat
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:43 pm

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING
For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, East Gippsland,
South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East and West and South
Gippsland s.

Issued at 12:23 pm Monday, 6 December 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be
affected include Mildura, Horsham, Ballarat, Bendigo, Maryborough and Kyneton.
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Anthony Violi
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Mon Dec 06, 2010 12:45 pm

Good move...i think we are on the verge of some enormous figures this next 3 days.

Today could produce 50mm in an hour at a worst case.
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