Victoria: Rain/Storm Event (Analysis) November 22-28 2010

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Supercellimpact
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Location: North Bendigo

Sat Nov 20, 2010 2:25 pm

With the growing interest of later next week, I have decided to create a thread. Very warm to hot temps before the trough, above 32 for Northern Vic , then a mix of rain and storms. We will get a good a Idea of rain amounts around Tuesday and Wednesday.
Last edited by Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 22, 2010 12:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Edited title for reflection of trough system.
Harley34
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 4:08 pm

We are still a little far out yet to make any clear statements on what will occur. I'm hoping this trough provides more of a thundery event, with a wide area of VIC to experience vast storm development. Really hoping for a few decent thunderstorms down here in Metropolitan Melbourne. We had a few weak storms a few weeks ago, but it's been a while now since anything really decent had passed through. We came close a few weeks ago, but close isn't good enough.

Looks like the temperatures down in Melbourne will be around the low to middle 30's, and the humidity by the looks of the forecast synoptic charts look to be just as favorable. Like anything, the time will play a big role in where and of what strength the thunderstorms are. Latest Stormcast run for Thursday and Friday has good numbers for a wide area in a triangle expanding from Horsham to Echuca, then down to Melbourne, with LI's of -3 to -4 and CAPE values anywhere from 700-1400. The previous runs haven't really moved alot, and i'm thinking not much will change either. Friday looks like a better day with C areas highlighted with stronger values, in comparison to the Stronger numbers out W on the previous day.

To be honest, i don't know alot about the specifics of LI's and CAPE values, but i know they are significant for development and are basically the atmospheric conditions on that day, providing other factors fall into place. Anyway, my guess is many areas will see anywhere from 10-30 mm. Melbourne should see around 15-20 mm imo.
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Supercellimpact
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 4:44 pm

Im liking the look of Thursday for Bendigo good li's and cape. waiting for the next few runs to get a good idea.
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Meso
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 5:09 pm

Been keeping an eye on it. Hoping for a classic storms spreading from the west type situation to unfold.
Kris
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 5:43 pm

Anyone around the Seymour area interested in a chase on Friday or Saturday if conditions persist, let me know. Free the whole weekend from 9am Fri until 9am Mon. :-)
Check out the weather in Seymour, Vic: http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_F ... =IVICSEYM2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Didjman
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 5:58 pm

Kris, count me in for all day thurs/Fri(looking the best days), or Sat/Sun arvo. you have my mobile no.
Cheers Peter
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Didjman
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 6:01 pm

Stormcast - for what its worth - is showing 2pm - 5pm as the best storm conditions on Thurs / Fri for the western half of the state.
Peter
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Supercellimpact
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:24 pm

EC had 60mm down for here which is great.
Harley34
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:07 pm

BOM going for "Isolated Thunderstorms later in the day" on Thursday and Friday respectively.
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Supercellimpact
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:29 pm

Latest storm cast is up in 1 hour, then I see if it's consistant with the previous runs.
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Supercellimpact
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 9:52 pm

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?m ... ate&lc=qld

This maybe the first cyclone threat for Queensland !
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Petros
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:15 pm

La Nina heaven.. the fortnightly Vic rain event remains on track! My humble take on things is for storms Fri/Sat followed by sig. rain event for Ytbd areas of Vic (our turn this time?).
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admin
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:43 pm

Supercellimpact wrote:http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?m ... ate&lc=qld

This maybe the first cyclone threat for Queensland !
SCI,

Ken has fired a thread about this here...
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... f=60&t=805
Follow us on Twitter @ AusWeatherForum
adon
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:52 pm

Lets just hope for the mallee we can scrape out of this with nothing. Harvest os only just beginning for the Mallee and all of us up here need a year that has good return. A lot of NSW has been hit by rain which has downgraded the grain and lowers the price. The poor buggers have been looking forward to finally making some money to start getting back on track and the very thing that they needed won't stop and is now costing them money. Ah the sunburnt country eh? Gotta love it.
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Meso
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Sat Nov 20, 2010 11:01 pm

Must be extremely frustrating being a farmer or someone who relies on the land and rain for an income. But, the weather has always been dynamic, so it's not something you get in to without knowing the risks.
I_Love_Storms
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Sun Nov 21, 2010 12:28 am

I think we will see a big storm outbreak on Thursday afternoon. At this stage for Friday I think there is a chance for isolated embedded activity but I see it as a very significant rain day with 8/8 cloud.
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Meso
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Sun Nov 21, 2010 1:19 am

Thursday has an asterix on the calendar...that's about it at this stage...don't wanna jump the gun.
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Karl Lijnders
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Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:44 am

And looking not as hot IMO but certainly much more like Singapore.

Expect US to return with falls of 200mm by tonight LOL! :P
Former Owner - The Australian Weather Forum. Email me anytime - weatherman1000@hotmail.com
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Petros
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Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:53 am

The tail end of this sequence might end up as a massive ECL acc. to ACCESS/GFS!!
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Karl Lijnders
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Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:27 am

Any low that forms in the secondary phase of the trough will most likely move back east to west across the state and become cradled. That could make things very very interesting! The east looks primed for a big event IMO but could easily spread statewide.

Anticipating around 50mm here this week.
Former Owner - The Australian Weather Forum. Email me anytime - weatherman1000@hotmail.com
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