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New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Skywalker »

norfolk wrote:let me throw a spanner in the works, by the time the line reaches us, the Brisbane Ranges will break the line, the higher peaks to the north, like Mt Macedon will break it, and the cooler night temps will also stop further development. Discuss!
Anything can happen, but I tend to agree with you here Tony. Guess we will see as the night unfolds. I don't have alot of confidence when it comes to this part of Melb.
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Karl Lijnders
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Karl Lijnders »

She is giving birth as well. She will away for sometime. I should go for her job... :)

Jamison cell looks great from here. Nice classic anvil and updraught support. Large CB to my NW now too. First one that looks like it could go from that direction anyway. Anyone else got a visual on it. N of Melbourne?
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by rikjpool »

Can see the anvil making its way across the screen on the Arratt Webcam I just found...
http://vk3jtm.ham-radio-op.net/jview.htm
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Good to see the line is spurning cells in front around Colac now.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by SC. »

Karl Lijnders wrote: I should go for her job.
Back off big fella. Let Leasy step in.
Matt

http://vintagemoviepostersforum.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Karl Lijnders
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Excellent development down towards Cape Otway. Excellent news there.

The link that Rikki put up really emphasises the intensity of the storm line. Really thick anvil cirrus with a deep darkening into the main core.

Convection ahead of the main line looks somewhat similar to Melbourne so may have to hope something breaks locally.

LOL - Am I sensing a bit of sexism creeping in on the forum?? ;)
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by AUSSKY »

I hope the line is spawning cells rather than spurning cells :lol: and can we please have someone doing the weather who really, really knows what they are talking about..... :roll:
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Pengaz
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Pengaz »

Interesting times ahead out this way-BoM seem pretty confident the best of our rain will fall saturday, although if things keep up tonight/tomorrow morning will be interesting as well.

We've had puffs of Cu tower rapidly for most of the arvo, had a few just to the east and NE by the looks of it that have dropped rain curtains. I noticed things have become a fair bit more organised to our North over the ranges, and moving almost due south. We might cop a brief storm later this evening from something that develops off the foothills north of Maffra before the main line charges through and dominates the state's weather. Its only taking a matter of 10-15mins for some of these cells to get organised today, such is the volatility of the atmosphere.

Another positive-no seabreeze here either to kill off local development... :brightbanana:

Looks like a ripper of a squall line developing to the SW of the state at the moment. Think the BoM might be kidding themselves with their skepticism thinking this line will slip south. LOOK how far it extends back into bloody SA! Even a beginner can tell thats not weakening OR slipping south in a hurry! :roll:
Last edited by Pengaz on Thu Dec 31, 2009 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by James »

we all know the bom tell the public what they want to hear
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by DarkEye »

Karl, should I see very many storms tonight or not?
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Leasy »

SC. wrote:
Karl Lijnders wrote: I should go for her job.
Back off big fella. Let Leasy step in.
:lol:

If that's me you're referring to, I somehow don't think I'd get that job! :rotfl:

It's sooo hot outside! Can see some high cloud to my south and some smaller :cloudy: mixed in, will it cool down at all around dusk? Hoping to go on my run before I watch the skies full time. :)


BTW, these smilies are awesome! :blowtorch:

What's this one --> :hangloose: all about??
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Karl Lijnders »

DE, I think you will have the risk of a storm with one or two showers about - the action will be all east.

Cells redeveloping on the eastern ranges. Look great from here. Hope they increase and spawn some reasonable lightning before the main course of weather arrives!

:hangloose: = I don't know but lets just go with it. It is NYE!!!
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by samueliza »

powers gone off here in pt cook. doesnt happen often here. Thank god we are going out :stirringthepot:
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 4:51 pm Thursday, 31 December 2009,
Valid until midnight on Thursday, 31 December 2009.



Severe thunderstorms are already occurring in an organised line along a trough over the southwest of the State. This trough line will extend towards central Victoria tonight and may still produce severe weather after dark. Storms near the east Gippsland coast and on the Northeastern highlands are mainly a risk of flash flooding or damaging wind gusts until about 9pm and are more localised.


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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by samueliza »

PS- is it just me- or does it feel hotter today than it has all summer? Will be in glenroy tonight. Hopefully some action out that way. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL. LOOKING FORWARD TO LEARNING HEAPS MORE FROM YOU GUYS IN 2010! :jumpingmany:
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by Dc449 »

What time do we excpect the line to hit? also is this line it, or are we waiting for one later, like Midnight onwards?
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by I_Love_Storms »

The line has split into at least 3 lines now, looks great on the radar, definitely growing as it crosses the hot, moist airmass!
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by mick »

yer I reckon so. its the wind. Ch9 cam has a good view out to the n/e nothing happening there. I hops Liv has the sun roof put in and gets back to work before summer ends.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by AUS_Twisted »

I can just see the development SW of Geelong and it's getting bigger, black core now

Edit: Noticed there's been a -CG near Werribee in the last 5 mins
Last edited by AUS_Twisted on Thu Dec 31, 2009 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Some stats from the storms thus far:

Edenhope - 14.8mm in around 30 mins, 70 kph wind gust

Yarrawonga - 18.2mm in an hour

We also had the 100kph gust in Dartmoor earlier.

Can't source any big rainfalls from SA, but I'm sure some localised dumpings.
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