New Years Week: becoming hot and humid with possible storms

[I_Love_Storms]

I reckon say, 50mm NYE and a following 50 NYD and beyond would be a great end to 2009 and start to 2010. That almost sounds like a prediction ....maybe just wishful thinking on my part

Haha...that is a lot of rain dagget. Oh well, possible I guess.

The way I see it Thursday will be very humid and hot then we will get at least two lines of thunderstorms coming through the CBD...relatively thin and fast moving but will probably dump 15-20mm between them...

Friday different story, I expect to see isolated pockets of rain during the day with slightly possibility of thunderstorms, with a big line coming through in the evening with embedded supercell features. Probably looking at anywhere from 10-50mm on Friday realistically, however direct hit by at least one supercell in CBD could get higher than 50mm. Looks as though that is what GFS is predicting.

Saturday will be rain until early afternoon as well I think. Could get another 10-20mm with isolated heavier falls (hopefully), Saturday still a way off yet though.

[Petros]

Will have the models up on the site soon but have a look at :

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml NOGAPS
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html US
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082300!!/ EC

... double cheers Karl, I'm still trying to work out how I could get a 20mm rain diffrence in EC progs vs yours a few days ago

Calm 31.9C here today, great waterskiing avo in these parts.

looking forward to the moisture/storms later in the week/weekend and hoping (greedily)that it wont affect a round of golf Sat arvo too much!

[dagget]

Haha...that is a lot of rain dagget. Oh well, possible I guess.

anything is possible right!, told you it wasn't a forecast/prediction just wishful thinking, just love to see another wet December like we have had in recent years.. anyhow if it is anyhting like recent events it will be dry up here

[Rhino]

Just got home after being away for a few days and looks like a nice system going to develop. Would be nice to get a solid rainband aswell as some good storms but will be nice to see a bit of lightning on New Years Eve. EC and OCF totals seem a good bet at this stage, GFS totals around the Melbourne area are possible but really would have to get under a slow moving core for those totals to occur, halve GFS totals and that would be closer to the mark. Will be interesting to see if some or these storms develop into areas of rain on Thursday and Friday night, could be some good falls if that occurs.

Rhino.

[Petros]

Will have the models up on the site soon but have a look at :

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml NOGAPS
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html US
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082300!!/ EC

... double cheers Karl, I'm still trying to work out how I could get a 20mm rain diffrence in EC progs vs yours a few days ago

Calm 31.9C here today, great waterskiing avo in these parts.

looking forward to the moisture/storms later in the week/weekend and hoping (greedily)that it wont affect a round of golf Sat arvo too much!

Still cant find a way to the EC rainfall progs, (only MSLP and 850 wind speed) - do you have to set up an account???

[Anthony Violi]

Petros, all the links including the Ec rainfall is in the weather links section..

Not sure if this one is on there but it is very good too...

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... ts?LANG=nz

[Dc449]

Exciting few days ahead!

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest GFS pretty much holding Friday's rain forecast, slight downgrade and a shift slightly eastwards but that is about it, all speculation as to the positioning this far out, but interesting to keep an eye on nonetheless.

In summary the forecast shows storms likely from Thursday afternoon to midday Saturday. Gives us a nice 48 hour window.

[Petros]

Petros, all the links including the Ec rainfall is in the weather links section..

Not sure if this one is on there but it is very good too...

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... ts?LANG=nz

Thats it, I'm officially dumb.

I've looked all over ECMF site and cant find rainfall charts or a "links" section. You blokes must be able to log in or are far smarter than I.

... [edit] and I went into ECMF via the weatherlinks site, stumbled around for ages and STILL cant find rain progs. Im missing something obvious I know, but getting mad with my ineptitude now....

[Karl Lijnders]

Petros,

Here you are mate.... http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victor ... /long.html

I was out tonight and I am sorry I didn't see this earlier.

BTW keep watching the models shift things around as we get into the next few days. Looking promising for some good thundery weather still, despite US shifting things back and forth. Next 24 hours will be crucial.

Cooling back but quite humid out here with dew forming heavily on the car.

[Anthony Violi]

Its ok Petros, at this time of year and a few bevies later we all lose our marbles...the EC link is completely seperate from the EC site.

Still looking good, just the humidity alone should ensure some good wet thunderstorms with the possiblity of some rain areas around as well. Going to be a lot of luck involved but they should be widespread enough so we all get something.

And DJ, in regards to that 95/96 storm event on NYE, was showing Karl the photos the other days, we had storms till late, cleared, then at 7 am they redeveloped on the central ranges and moved into Melbourne dumping some massive totals before 9am. When i get home i might even upload them, they were very heavy bases due to the high humidity..

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like a bit of a downgrade for NYE - or perhaps more a case of the action being pushed back a few hours into the early hours of NYD. Looks like most of the action will be in the west and pretty isolated elsewhere.

The GFS forecast still looks very good, negative LIs from midday, high heat, and moderate CAPE values. Latest forecast does look as though the main line of storms will move through early NYD, however it is possible that widespread storms will develop during the day.

Friday (all day) and Saturday morning continue to look like rippers as well, I think Central areas will get a deluge.

[Petros]

Petros,

Here you are mate.... http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victor ... /long.html

Thanks Karl, I thought that site used UKMet not ECMF?? It goes out 2 days, but I see others quoting EC rain progs out 3 days ahead???

[Karl Lijnders]

Stunning day out there. Very warm with NE winds here in the Yarra Valley. Plenty of heat to build ahead of this in coming system tomorrow.

I agree with the model consensus. EC was the first to jump on Saturday a few days back, but wouldn't be suprised to see it return to the 30-40mm falls. Really comes down to timing and everything falling to our favour. Would be a really excellent way to start 2010. Considering the last few years we have had shocking Januarys!

Petros click the long term forecast to get 7 days. If you want the next few days in detail, click Hour Overview. If you want the EC rainfall maps, go to advanced map. The link I gave you gives your EC rainfall estimates to 7 days out for your area.

[mick]

Dare I hope for a lightning display over the bay tomorrow night????

[I_Love_Storms]

Dare I hope for a lightning display over the bay tomorrow night????

Better than 50/50 chance I would say. Hopefully a really slow moving storm can get going and we can have some cracking lightning for a few hours

[rikjpool]

Im going to be in St Leonards from the 2nd of Jan. Hopefully there will stil be some nice storms around then, I still want some sea lightning shots. :jumpingmany:

But to today, its warming up verynicely atm. 32C's here already.

[daviescr]

Hey everyone,
got my new weatherstation installed yesterday. And looks like just in time too

Humidity is rising nicely, just hit 58% and already at 32.3c with no wind.

Supposedly working today but have a yearning desire to jump in the car with the wife and dog for a day at Flinders beach. Have a great one

Chris

[norfolk]

hot temperatures now about the place, with 34c out here, 32c in the city. And as it is still before noon, could be about 36 or 37 by later this afternoon

[James]

wow has that sun got some punch to it!

went for a walk to the shops earlier and it was warm...but bearable

but just going outside now, its much much hotter than before and the sun is so intense...all my poor tomato plants are leaning over even though they have enough water...its just its starting to cook them!

looking forward to some nice thunderstorms over the weekend