VIC: Rain/showers & thunderstorms - October 12th- 14th

[johnno]

Been a while since I have started a thread here in breaking weather but am liking what I am seeing next week starting from Tuesday..

All models have a sharp upper trough with rich source of moisture from the NW and deep surface trough slowly edging eastwards Tuesday with a band of rain and isolated storms developing over Western Victoria Tuesday ahead of this band expect humid unstable NE/N winds from Queensland to develop Scattered showers and few storms ahead of the main band itself manly Central and Eastern Victoria. Humid N winds will dominate most the day but expect a SW to S change to sneak into SW Victoria Tuesday pushing through South Central parts at night.

Wednesday: Areas of rain will continue for alot of Southern & Western Victoria with showers and storms will continue over Northern and Eastern Victoria some solid falls will occur as the sharp Upper trough and surface trough will almost stagnate over Victoria on Wednesday. Humid NE to NW winds East and North of the surface trough and SW to SE winds West of the surface trough, with those SW to SE winds also expect drizzle and fog on higher ground to develop in the very moist conditions.

Thursday & Friday are abit tricky at this stage with some models pushing the trough and cloudband into Eastern Victoria and Tasman sea and have a high slowly ridging in and drying things out in Southerly winds while other models such as EC and UKMET (the 2 best models IMO) have a 2nd front and surge of cold air developing behind this 1st system moveing NE on Thursday into Victoria.. If this were to happen expect rain and isolated storms to contract into far Eastern Victoria with drizzle and showers to continue along the ranges especially the Northern slopes while drier weather will prevail in most of Southern Victoria but as the front approaches expect Showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop in SW Victoria middle of the day and spread to Eastwards during the afternoon with freshening NW winds shifting colder SW. Local hail may also follow the change in SW Victoria.

Friday: Cold SSW winds may continue with showers mainly on and Soutth of the ranges easing from the West, local hail and thunder is also a possbility in parts of the South but that also should contract into Gippsland during the afternoon. Snow may also falls to as low as 1000 metres during Friday morning.



Still a few days out but theres a reasonable change most of Victoria may see 20-30mm with some Southern, Northern Eastern parts and ranges may see totals as high as 50mm if not more. Keep a close eye on it guys could be the most interesting week in October for Victoria for at least 5 Years.

[ckeenan]

yeah the system looks good next week.

I cant wait for some good storms y migth be on a chase

[Rhino]

EC been on this for a while and other models are starting to come into line. Will be nice to have rain areas with embedded storms so most areas get a nice drink, will be plenty of time for massive storm complexes in the coming months, and runoff into catchments at this time of the year is worth it's weight in gold. Certainly looking wet though and humid too.

Rhino.

[Karl Lijnders]

Yes I agree with you John, looks to be a great period of weather.

I suspect that there is still some wobbling of the models, watch for the LWT slowing down, a low pressure system forming from the N and cutting off or the trough becoming cradled, all distinct possibilities.

I am tipping 50-100mm widespread and floods returning to the NE and N slopes.

[droughtbreaker]

GFS in it's latest run has 125mm+ right over my house basically. We all know how this model can shift around and over intensify things though.

Any way you look at it it should be a very wet week and more flooding is a near certainty.

[Karl Lijnders]

Personally if the trough stalls then that scenrio is possible. Local thunderstorms will see totals of 100-150mm achieved anyway.

Now let us see if it holds.

[Karl Lijnders]

So US relaxes but would not be suprised if it comes back to that rainfall intensity for the state.

EC has got us in a troughy situation till around Thursday but has broken the rain band down a bit and looks much stormier and unsettled with higher temps Tues/Wed/Thur then a pool of cold air meets this tropical airmass and wraps into a low later next week with rain/showers and storms easing by late in the weekend, say a week from today.

ACCESS has got a band of useful rain for us, looks thundery as well. High moisture content coming down in NE winds as well now too with the upper low off the SE QLD coast. Could see storms develop over NE VIC on Monday.

Most models in agreement for further showers and storms initially tending to rain.

I guess the thing to watch is for the trough to stall and the cold air to get wrapped into the complex developing a low in our region. Still tricky knowing where to place that low.

[droughtbreaker]

EC and GFS (the two main models I can be bothered looking at), both sticking to 50mm+ for here and no doubt many other places in the state. EC actually has around 80mm for the week here, so as one model shifts back a little the others take up the slack. With La Nina we will get heavy rain from anything, even just a weak trough will spark storms and rain. The cold air behind it all is the key though. EC has a nice gentle cold pool of around 0C 850T that is slow moving and would really help with uplift of the warm humid air ahead and help with the development of lows over us.

GFS is looking OK but still looking at a massive cold outbreak Thursday/Friday, which would be an exciting event, (it would be cold enough for very low level snow) but it would also dry the air right out and probably decrease rainfall chances after Thursday. EC is probably looking the best atm

[Jake Smethurst]

A very interesting week ahead! Models are still relativley all over the shop but we are getting a general agreement or overview of the situation. In all likelyhood it is going to be quite a large event, or several numbers of different systems as per EC is indicating. But either scenario, flooding becomes a real problem again across the state.

During Sunday, we should see winds tend more northeasterly, and this is when the moisture starts to be pumped down into Victoria from northern regions and Queensland.

By Monday DP's should have risen a little and there is some indication that there could be a few isolated afternoon showers or/and thunderstorms near the northeast ranges and in the southwest, filtering over from southeast South Australia where there is an upper disturbance. Winds will tend more north to northwest during Monday and they are looking to be quite fresh to strong and occassionaly gusty across the state as the pressure gradient tightens a little. Temperatures will be quite warm as well with mid 20's through the south and high 20's approaching the 30 degree mark across the north.

Depending on which scenario plays out, Tuesday could remain rather troughy as per EC, or a day with cloud increasing and rain areas developing from the west as per GFS and even ACCESS. If GFS plays out, there would be a relatively weak south to southwest change enter the southwest during the afternoon. However EC looks a lot more interesting with moisture comtinuing to plume into the state with northerly winds continuing and instability rising thanks to the trough in the region. This would ensure shower and thunderstorm activity to continue across most of the state.

Wednesday onwards is just way too confusing at the moment with many scenarios possibly playing out. EC continues troughy conditions with a weak front coming through the state later in the day, ensuring showers and thunderstorms to continue, whereas GFS has most of Victoria in a southeast flow and rain areas continuing.

So hard to say from Wednesday onwards ... will have to watch the satellite over coming days and model runs as well.

[Karl Lijnders]

I think the key to these systems evolving at the intensity they have been and are is the cold air coming in behind fronts or being flung up from the southern ocean.

We are just seeing the start of a run of something quite unprecedented IMHO.

Anyhow the moisture source is moving down the coast with showers and rain moving into NE NSW and extending inland with the trough tomorrow and Monday.

[stevco123]

Wow! I didn't realise until today just what am awesome week this could turn out to be.i expected an interesting week, but its just built up more.there really could be a potential for rain falls within the 75-100mm range on tues/wed, and with this rain, all the creeks and rivers will burst their banks.iexpect flood watches to be enforced from tomorrow or monday for the tuesday and wednesday range

[mantis]

Hope we get something here. Hasnt rained in Horsham since early sept. Well, I dont consider 0.2mm to be rain

[schitzengiggles]

yeah the system looks good next week.

I cant wait for some good storms y migth be on a chase

Can you please put your location in your profile?

[droughtbreaker]

GFS in the latest run has -5C 850T and a widespread 5-25mm of rain in central and southern Victoria from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. I know GFS goes over the top with cold outbreaks more than a few days out but I have been impressed with its consistency with this potential cold outbreak. EC is not keen on it now but GFS has stuck to its guns.

Expect one of the biggest low level snow events for this late in the year for a long time, and possibly in living memory if it somehow comes off.

Just a side thought for now though. More important I guess is the 50-100mm that models are indicating for the next 7 days. It looks like it will be in the form of continuous rain too and not just storms. In fact it is probably looking less impressive for storms now just from my naive view on things after looking at the latest GFS.

[daviescr]

trying not to get too excited about all the rain, but with all the moisture that's around it's looking nice, and to top it off, looks like I will be in Melb all week too for a change...

[Karl Lijnders]

Things well and truly still on track. Models wobbling rainfall about the place particularly surrounding next weekend which is still up in the air as the first system literally sets up the second one.

We should see a fairly solid thundery outbreak a little earlier now through Tuesday over N VIC spreading throughout by later in the day, moreso in W and C areas along a organised boundary of showers/rain and thunderstorms. Most models have 20mm or so for much of the south including Melbourne and no doubt in convective environments, local falls of 30-50mm are possible.

That aspect will flatten to rain through Wednesday before further storms develop on the leading and back edge of the cloudmass, more confined to the back side of the cloudmass with further moderate to heavy falls. Another 30mm is likely over much of N and E VIC and 10-20mm back further west. The far SW will miss out on most of the first system, but should still get around 10-15mm.

Then from there it turns real interesting as a cold pool develops over southern Bight waters and then is flung north behind a cold front set to enter W VIC during Thursday with the main cold air hard to track at this point. It seems it will go through Bass Strait or S VIC/N TAS with a low forming a deep centre in the vicinity. Rain and thunderstorms are likely to develop once again ahead of the front, more extensive in the north and east during the day. Showers hail and thunderstorms over southern VIC behind the front. Another 20-30mm is likely from this.

From Friday it is too tricky to call but showers/rain and thunder will continue over SE Australia in bands wrapping around a low pressure system. ACCESS has a pretty deep complex of 989hPa off NE TAS during Saturday putting C and E VIC into cyclonic SW with rain and showers wrapping around with decent totals. Could cause further problems for flooding.

Snow also likely about alpine areas over the course of the second system.

[johnno]

All going to plan guys since I started this thread a couple of days ago, UK and EC were the 1st models to show this cold air flinging up and gradually other models GFS and so on have caught on at the back of it all. Looks good.

[johnno]

By the way ALL models that I have look at this morning have this Cold air now flung North eastwards so its not a question of IF anymore more a question of how this 2nd part of the system comes through whether it interacts with the pre trough and forms a huge rainband and storms ahead of the cold air late Thursday and Friday & a cut off just North or East of us OR if we get cold air flung right over us and a cold showery, hail thunder outbreak but we should get weather one way or another by the look of things now

[Anthony Violi]

We all get excited when we see progs like this...all are in agreeance, just the specs are slightly varied.

My interest has always been on the massive cold outbreak Fri/Sat, i expect a big cut off to form in our vicinity. All models are just playing with the location but the particulars are pretty much the same, huge cold air surge for one of the coldest of the year.

However, i have a sneaking suspicion Wednesday will set Friday up. As DJ says, very high RH should ensure 20-30mm generally, but its the stalling i like. NOGAPS last night stall the system over us or just East, and starts to wrap it into the low on Thursday night. If that were to come off we could have a once in many year event. The other models make it happen a bit further East, but its there and possible.

Looking forward to 30mm Tuesday/Wednesday, and at least the same Fri/Sat/Sun.

[schitzengiggles]

Ugh.. No rain next Saturday pls AV. Yesterday was absolutely perfect for cricket & we could do with more of the same