Victoria: Showers and thunderstorms - October 6th-7th 2010

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Karl Lijnders
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:37 am

Well it appears there is a significant rain event lining up for the eastern half of VIC which will kick off a good start to the month for many areas.

Should see a nice warming and moistening of the atmosphere in the coming 12 hours as we go more SE in the winds today and then quickly to the N overnight and tomorrow morning ahead of the stalling frontal feature.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over western areas tomorrow morning before increasing through the C and E parts of the state during Wednesday. Rainfall gradient will be rather high and this will mean that areas west of Melbourne may see a lot less than areas east of Melbourne, (if we draw the hypothetical boundary over Melbourne).

In any case we are slowly winding up to a crescendo of weather whether it be tomorrow or next week but it is coming.

Anticipating 25-40mm here and 10-20mm in Melbourne at this time. EC dropped off for the first time in rainfall stakes but US/ACCESS have come back a bit. EC should resolve the glitch this morning as it doesn't quite match the satellite picture and what is going on ahead of the front.

Could be some 50mm falls in the catchments and NE.
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Nick Sykes
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 12:50 pm

BOM on ABC country hour sounded quite excited about storms tomorrow, developing from the NW in the morning and getting into Central and Eastern areas in the afternoon, sounded quite confident there will be severe storms. :)
Twister
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:36 pm

Any were E of a line Mildura to Colac should do quite well tomorrow, with showers and thunderstorms, few 20mm+ falls about to so enjoy that. The further E you go the better it gets as you run into more moisture and max day time heating
For us W, NW folk change moves through early and not enough moisture.

3 weeks today with no rain, its not to bad, but with all this warm weather its drying a bit, and nothing till next week will be 4 weeks before it rains again here, but after 60mm in 10 days in early Sept, its seems the norm up here, lots of rain then nothing for ages.

Hoping the forecast for next week comes off.

Looking great for Central and E areas tomorrow enjoy guys, NE should do quite well with storms, and a few heavy falls up that way, and through mounts, and some central areas.

23/8c atm with SE winds and clear skies
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adon
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:52 pm

Well hoping we can score some rain out of this as we are starting to need some rain again here. Heavy ground is starting to feel it a little. Not so much completely dry but the root are needing to drive deep to find moisture. Also hoping to get some fresh pasture growth so those little hoppers stay out of the crop.

We are pretty much on the edge of a chance tomorrow and will be keeping a keen eye out while at work.
stevco123
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:55 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong about this, but Does tomorrow mean that the highest rain falls tomorrow could well be in the South-Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and further out to the south-east?

My theory is if we do get storms...

Storms come in from the north-west before the change, dumping heavy rain, then winds turn south-westerly which means showers will continue for a period???
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Harley34
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 7:57 pm

Not much happened today. Fairly boring day with overcast conditions until afternoon, with the sun coming out. Tomorrow is looking sweet for storm activity. Lucky for me I finish school early at the ripe time of 1pm. So, by the time I leave and get home, I will most likely position myself in a great spot to watch these babies roll in 8-)

Any furthur updates on tomorrow guys?
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typhoon29
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:21 pm

lovely day to be out looking at roads that need repairs and removal of road side weeds. plenty of sun and around 20 for most to the afternoon,

tomorrow will be interesting.....depends on the prefrontal trough how and where it dips down and enters Victoria. Won't be much with the change itself just wind. storms could be anywhere tomorrow.
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droughtbreaker
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:23 pm

I picked up 5.6mm overnight and then another 0.3mm of drizzle. Radar sequence confirms that the showers hung over areas east of Gisborne and Mount Macedon for longer, I am on the eastern side of Mount Macedon township so ended up with over double what Mount Macedon MW recorded. Classic case of convective rainfall causing big changes in rainfall totals over small distances. 20C here today, the same temp as Melbourne which is a bit of a turn up.

Interesting one tomorrow. Models indicating only about 10mm here but just a slight difference in timing of the change and it could end up a lot more than that.

ACCESS actually sneaks us in here for 20-30mm.
DarkEye
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 9:11 pm

Will I see much tomorrow or will this be mainly an inland event?
Jake Smethurst
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 9:25 pm

It was a partly cloudy day today with generally light winds. The sun felt very nice on the skin, and I think it's trying to tell me I need a tan!! :D

For tomorrow, a very big situation developing. I'm pretty sure that you have all read the official BoM forecasts, and they are all in with scattered thunderstorms forecast across most of the state, as a frontal/trough system moved through during the day.

Latest models are showing a very unstable atmospheric environment with LI values down to -7 at some locations. Generally LI values are widespread at -3 to -5, however noticable locations near Echuca and covering most of the Northern Country see them down to -6 and -7. In regards to the convective potential tomorrow, it's generally very healthy with CAPE values expected to reach up to 1800 over the Northern Country with generally widespread values between 400-800 over most areas east of a line from Mildura to Colac. East of this line is where we should see most of the thunderstorm activity tomorrow, particularly during the afternoon and near the frontal system which is expected to move into the west during the day, reaching central regions and Melbourne around the latter part of the afternoon. The moisture profile is also very healthy with numerous injections expected over the next 12 hours ahead of the frontal system. Temperatures aloft are also remaining very favourable for thunderstorm development, and surface temperatures will be sufficient as well. Supercells are likely tomorrow, mostly across the Northern Country and Northeast forecast districts, but not restricted to this region, and are generally possible anywhere. Sheer is in my opinion better across the north, with an estimate of 37 knots for the 0-6km layer. Thunderstorm steering tomorrow should be southeast, and large hailstones, damaging winds and flash flooding are all possible. Tornadoes are less likely but cannot be ruled out. I should also mention that areas west of the line Mildura to Colac are less likely to see thunderstorm activity tomorrow due to less instability and moisture, however they are still possible during the morning as the front enters the region ... and cold-air thunderstorms are possible near the southwest coast at night.

Thats my view on things at this point in time.
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Dc449
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 9:42 pm

Looking good, cant wait.
fortius quo fidelius
Twister
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 10:12 pm

Big day tomorrow for Central and E areas with some Big storms in NC and NE areas, quite linear storms by late avro but early on should be a few very strong storms and maybe a few SCs there is some nice turning on the Trough with Surface NE tending W SW so that be nice isolate stuff early or ahead of the band will be quite impressive.

East of a line Mildura Colac looking great nothing up here sadly might get 6am rumble and dinner plate drops.

Enjoy Melbourne, and chasers and friends in NC and NE areas looking quite epic, lots of rain to, some will see close to 30mm+ could be some training of showers and storms early which will lead to higher falls.
Storms will be moving fast tomorrow up to 50km/h

See it as a typical day spring front day with nice infeed.
Showers and a few storms fire up in N NW Vic around sunrise, and move SE build into a bit of an early thundery rain band in Central areas then on back of this as change moves into W Vic, Storms will explode just west of the Mildura to Colac line and will move and explode as they move quickly E SE, they will form a nice band of thunderstorms with more showers and thunderstorms forming ahead of this line.
Behind it cool and windy no rain bar the far Sw in the cold pool.

Nice to see a storng spring front will be 4 seasons in one day great stuff

Clouds on sunset were quite unstable clouds really building over SA expect to see showers on Mildura radar between 4-6am this will be that start of all the Vic action
Triangle from Swan Hill To Melb To Wagga looking great tomorrow.

BTW great to see all the rain and storms over central Aus is great news, as hopefully as things go more troughy more of that moisture and action will filter down into SE AUS

ENJOY

I have my eyes on next week lets hope it comes off :)
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AUSSKY
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 10:36 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:I picked up 5.6mm overnight and then another 0.3mm of drizzle. Radar sequence confirms that the showers hung over areas east of Gisborne and Mount Macedon for longer, I am on the eastern side of Mount Macedon township so ended up with over double what Mount Macedon MW recorded. Classic case of convective rainfall causing big changes in rainfall totals over small distances. 20C here today, the same temp as Melbourne which is a bit of a turn up.

Interesting one tomorrow. Models indicating only about 10mm here but just a slight difference in timing of the change and it could end up a lot more than that.

ACCESS actually sneaks us in here for 20-30mm.

Better than Trentham..1.6mm for us out here.....misty foggy this morning.....
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I_Love_Storms
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 11:12 pm

Storms on the way for Victoria
Sam Terry, Tuesday October 5, 2010 - 16:03 EDT

Australia is only a little way into the storm season and already severe storms are on the way, with Melbourne in the firing line of a battering.

A fast-moving cold front is poised to sweep into Victoria and Tasmania tomorrow, causing thunderstorms to fire up in the areas ahead of it.

The Western and Wimmera districts should be affected first, with storms perhaps even popping up as early as 8am. As the day progresses, the storms should become more frequent and widespread.

Plenty of moisture will filter in ahead of the front, and instability will be deep, both factors that indicate heavy rain and flash flooding could occur.

Melbourne will be a sitting duck as the front approaches, with northwesterly winds driving in showers and storms from the higher ground. Storms are likeliest during early afternoon, but could occur anywhere from 10am to 3pm.

Behind the front, winds will be very gusty and much cooler, delivering showers during the evening. All in all, residents of central Victoria should be prepared for a wild day.

Keep checking weatherzone.com.au for the latest forecasts.

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droughtbreaker
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 11:22 pm

I hate the way WZ sensationalise. Sure it will be a very active day ahead of the change over the eastern two thirds of the state and some places will get slammed by severe storms (mainly the north) but can't they just report it rather than make it sound like the trailer to a Hollywood action flick? :?

Anyway, still looking very good. Oddly enough GFS now has the bulk of the heavy rain and storms after 4pm in its latest run despite instability values being high from late morning and highest in the early to mid afternoon. We may need a trigger in the form of the approaching wind change to actually spark things off despite a very unstable atmosphere generally.

My forecast for the day is for all the signals to get knocked out causing mass public transport chaos across the board. :x It seems to happen every time there is a large storm outbreak.
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Karl Lijnders
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 11:26 pm

Too right Andrew. They're timing on storm development is out to for the city with the wind shift not here till early evening.

I can already spot mid level cloud to the west in the night sky.
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rikjpool
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 11:30 pm

SO, im hoping to get out tomorrow after lunch, but Im not quite sure if work will let me. :(
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droughtbreaker
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Tue Oct 05, 2010 11:37 pm

The usual scenario at this time of year with this sort of system, is for a large squall line to come through around 2 hours ahead of and with the wind change with showery weather behind for a brief period. My tip is that it will be mostly fine and muggy for most of the day in Melbourne as showers and storms fire up in the north and a few showers or storms pop up around the metro area through the early to mid afternoon. Around 4pm-5pm, a squall line will approach Melbourne and clear the eastern burbs by 6pm-7pm with showers behind. Heavy rain, damaging wind squalls and hail are likely with isolated flash flooding with the squall line.

In a springtime scenario with a cold front coming in, storms are usually organised along the front itself more so than scattered storms developing in the form of an 'outbreak'. I may be wrong with all that but that's my gut feeling with this one.
Sniper
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Wed Oct 06, 2010 5:56 am

Cells already firing in Northern Country VIC.
Lightning active cells to the NW of Echuca (due west of Deniliquin).
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AUS_Twisted
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Wed Oct 06, 2010 6:16 am

Good to see things already firing up so early, I'm up for a drive today for sure as it's been so long!
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