Strong cold front. September 8th-10th 2010

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Karl Lijnders
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:25 pm

Another quick moving system is set deliver more useful rainfall and strong winds to the state mid week.

Cloud will increase from the west during Wednesday with a band of rain entering W VIC later in the day moving into C areas overnight. Should be some moderate to locally heavy falls over the northern slopes of the divide overnight into Thursday.

Thursday the rain will move into E VIC with some heavy falls about the NE ranges during the day. Clearer air following the rainband and a short wave will see showers and storms develop during the afternoon and spread into C areas during the evening. Looking at rainfall of 30-40mm over the NE and 10-25mm across the state however drier in Gippsland.

Should keep flood waters going but not really seeing the rise further.

Showers over southern areas through Friday could be a little heavy with the risk of hail and thunder. Snow will return to the Alpine areas.
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johnno
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:06 pm

Yes another little handy event coming up for Thursday looks good for another 10-25mm through most of the Northern plains and the West with possible 20-40mm through the Grampians & Central ranges and 25-50mm for the Higher NE ranges again, falls of 5-15mm through South Central and less as you get into East Gippsland. Something tells me that falls may be a little more than what some models are showing especially with all this surface moisture hanging about UK looks fairly good though. It shouldn't make flooding worse than what it is but may prolong the easing of the flooding with this burst. As Karl says looking quite showery through the South on Friday and hail is a risk especially close to the coast.
Twister
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:38 pm

Yes the rain just keeps on coming loving it, but more just a normal spring front now back to normal, not a dumping tropical low though, few more of those would be great this spring, though people who are flooded would think otherwise.

Yeah looking interesting, driving down to Melbourne on Thursday, so expect quite a wet and interesting drive so that will be fun.
Front south of WA atm looks a ripper, cold pool behind is even more impressive, as well as the cloud exploding over NW WA and NT diving south, if that front was moving more NE and not weakening on approach, then another huge event would be on the cards for sure and would be a big worry for many.

Cant see more than 5mm up here sadly, but still would be a nice fall and would keep things wet, shame cant get 30mm up here and only 5mm in the NE.
Looks like the wet spots on and just north of the GDR will do well again with up to another 20mm+, which i am sure is mostly unwanted at this stage for these areas after huge flooding.

Hoping front can get a bit more of a link up to the moisture up north, to give as a bit more rain than forecast.
In all looking a wet period once again, from Wednesday night through Friday night with an almost repeat system on the following Sunday Monday keeping things very wet, flooding will be holding on if not slightly increasing after each rain.

Wet run continues :D and if this does so till end of October, I think maybe all dams and rivers across the state will be very close to, if not already full.
Melbourne water might get to 55-60% that be great, and if Hume and Dartmouth could get over 80% and Elidon over 70% then things would be just grand as we head into what looks like a hot, humid, stormy, wet, summer.
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droughtbreaker
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:41 pm

johnno wrote: It shouldn't make flooding worse than what it is but may prolong the easing of the flooding with this burst.
If we get the upper range of what people are saying up here then the Maribyrnong will start to see some problems. There has already been minor flooding at Keilor over the weekend. Another 20-30mm here would cause some significant rises IMHO.
Rhino
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:06 pm

Certainly don't want 20mm around my area, and it will be interesting to see what 10mm does to the level, bring it up to moderate level IMO and the level seems to be taking forever to slowly drop now with the extra water coming from Tullaroop too. Sandbags are still in the middle of the main road that runs along the creek here, although it's a raging river at the moment, and sandbags are along the side of the Pyrenees Hwy as a precaution for the rain to come. Been 14 years since Tullaroop Res has been full so hard to remember how hard the creek can flood, although this is one out of the box. Nth-east areas won't look good by the weekend again, every drop of rain will just pour into the river systems now. :( Never been wishing so hard that we don't get rain, something very sobering about having a 300m line of sandbags out your front door and a raging river, scary actually.

Rhino. :) :)
DarkEye
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:03 pm

Great more rain, just what those poor people in the flooded areas need right now, sen smegging sensational.

(Sorry if I sound somewhat pessimistic, it's just after this weekend's events it would be nice to have some fine weather for a while, especially given the floods)
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Karl Lijnders
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:17 pm

Well unfortunately this is the trend so it is going to be a tough 9 months IMHO. Forecasters on here have been saying it for quite some time now and I personally don't think we have scraped the barrel yet!

US upgrades now and delivers 100mm to the NE highlands without really interacting with the NW moisture in feed. Will watch closely and analyse as we go for all those in flood affected areas. My instinct at this time is telling me that we are in for some more serious rainfall in the next week. May not fall on one day but back to back days of 20mm is just as bad.

One to watch, hopefully it can belt southern areas more and give the northeast a rest.
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Jake Smethurst
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Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:27 pm

We have slow internet at the moment, so cannot get a hold of latest model runs as they don't load, so I cannot make my own forecasts at this point in time. Data allowance renews this Wednesday, just before the front, so good news there.

By reports from Karl, John and others, looking interesting again, obviously not a spectacular low like a day or so ago, but a good old fashion frontal system interacting with the abundance of moisture and cold uppers! Likely to be some storms again too IMO.

Will chat more on this tomorrow afters school. ;)
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Karl Lijnders
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:38 am

Most models have a reasonable rain event spreading west to east over the state from tomorrow with 10-25mm for most and up to 40-50mm on the NE slopes. Winds will not be too strong and will shift colder westerly into Thursday. With a little more of a thermal gradient and steep lapse rates, there is the risk of thunderstorms on the front following the pre frontal rainband with diurnal heating kicking things off. C and E areas look to benefit most from this.

Friday will be fairly showery in cold SW winds. There is the risk of hail and thunder and snow developing down to 1200m. SW winds continuing.

As we get to the weekend, conditions ease briefly and winds turn NW ahead of the next frontal system bringing rain into Sunday night. There appears to be a significant cold air surge behind this front and a chance of another heavyish rain event, mainly on and south of the divide.
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Rhino
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:24 am

Just checked my records I've been keeping and we have had just under 9 inches of rain in the last 5 weeks (218mm). No wonder things are wet. Things could be worse for this week re flooding but hey, can't do anything about it, mother nature's got it sorted or at least I hope she has. :) Still looks good for at least 10mm for most sth of Echuca-Horsham.

Rhino. :) :)
Twister
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:50 pm

Yeah most folk south of that line you mention Rhino will see 10-20mm of rain bit more in hills and wetter spots so more wet stuff to fall.
Less to the NW only about 3-8mm up here, NE cant see them getting more than about 40mm max more like 20-30mm at this stage up there less is best atm

Good to see more fronts coming through Sunday Monday front looking nice to but miles away

Then after that looks like we might dry a bit with bit of dry period but ages away yet

Hoping this wet spell keeps going would LOVE all dams and river to get to 80-100% by December that be magic.

Really nice in feed into SA atm which is quite impressive, as to the front and huge cold pool behind it, sadly its slamming into the high over us and slipping SE.
Still both will provide another chance of good rain, bit of snow and a few thunderstorms.
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Karl Lijnders
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:01 pm

Anticipating around 50mm for the Alpine areas this weekend but a better snow chance thean the last event.

Cloud band and cold front looking promising I guess for areas southwest of the flood zone.
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Karl Lijnders
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:57 pm

Looking good for another 10-20mm through southern VIC and 20-40mm across the majority of the northern slopes and plains, bar the far NW in this next system. Alpine areas will get the heaviest of the rainfall of about 50-60mm but only enough to keep the flood levels where they are at this stage but important to stay tuned to the warnings as this rain evolves through the week.

As we get to Thursday evening there is a significant risk of thunderstorms across the C areas during the afternoon with a bit of a wind change and colder air coming in. Looking promising.

Into the weekend we work towards a brief clearing trend then a more significant statewide rain event with falls of 20-50mm statewide and potentially 70-100mm possible in the NE and E ranges. Potential for that to fall as snow too which is amazing.

Then EC suggesting a very large and protracted cold outbreak which could see significant snow return to alpine areas, and widespread moderate falls in southern and mountain VIC straining river systems down here. The Yarra being the one of most concern.

Melbourne is also likely to have flood watches renewed.
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Sniper
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:44 pm

I tend to agree DJ. More of your garden variety system in terms of rainfall, but with a soggy base will only provide more run-off to the already full rivers and waterways.
Twister
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Tue Sep 07, 2010 10:14 pm

Yeah both front and trough weakening on approach, as they reach us here in Vic still though most should get around 5-10mm less up here, few 20s about to in NE, NC, Wimmera as well.
Still most will see some more rain, which is good for most, sadly wettest areas now, look to do best again.

Friday looking to be quite a nice pocket rocket looks like tight little low with lots of showers and and few thunderstorm moving through on Friday.
S SW and the ranges of VIC could do quite well, could be quite wet in parts with this especially in some mount areas that might have had around 15mm or so the day before.

Sunday into Monday could be quite large IF the NWCB and front can hook up more, if they cant system will be much like this one only colder and stronger SW flow

Winds already back to ENE here with NWCB streaming over head atm, sadly all high cloud and rain is WELL back in N, NW SA still, stream SE please.

Of note is the insane amount of rain in North SA over the coming week, on top of everything this last month and if not year, and looks like a few more big 20-40mm rain bands to move through up there in coming week. Must be insanely wet up there after all this, they are doing very well, need the jet to take a more SE dive next few systems that will give us more big rains, and will fill everything which would be unreal
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Sniper
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Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:49 am

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:21 am Wednesday, 8 September 2010,
Valid until midnight on Wednesday, 8 September 2010.


No thunderstorms are expected over Victoria up until midnight Wednesday although there may be some high-based thunderstorms occuring to the west and northwest of Victoria during the evening.
Sniper
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Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:52 pm

Quite breezy around town, wasn't quite expecting that today.
Isolated showers starting encroach the state now.
Twister
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Wed Sep 08, 2010 4:12 pm

Really cant see the rain periods for tomorrow, after this band goes through there will only be patchy cloud on the front.
No mass of storms developing in SA or anything to produce a rain band at all with main front slipping well south of the state

Looking like a wind change with a few showers and the odd storm big downgrade though was never looking huge, looking more like fronts and troughs of the last few years at this time of year, dry, weak and little if any rain.

Cloud might build a bit over night in SA but still dont see rain periods at all, with this lot of light rain, shower period over W, NW VIC long gone and only very light

Also judging by the little action in this thread, i guess little will happen tomorrow.

Light rain here atm but not enough to wet the ground yet

17c atm light NNE wind

BTW Fridays pocket rocket looking quite nice
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Karl Lijnders
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Wed Sep 08, 2010 6:37 pm

Looking great for showers and storms tomorrow IMO.

Quite a bit of instability, extra warmth and a front riding through should provide a perfect mix for thunderstorms. A little bit of rain currently over the north will spread SE over C areas towards midnight with minimal falls. Then tomorrow showers and thunderstorms will develop over the west during the afternoon and spread to C areas with moderate falls of 10-25mm likely. Higher falls as this activity flattens to rain areas in the NE.

Friday looks quite good too with further showers and afternoon storms and hail about. Snow returning to the Alpine areas too. Another 10mm in the south is possible.

We then reset for Sunday/Monday where a much stronger and orgnaised system is developing for the state with heavy falls likely.
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typhoon29
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Wed Sep 08, 2010 7:46 pm

a spring like day here, cool start then the temp increased nicely with some lovely sun then the cloud and wind increased mainly high level stuff although thickened to some high based showers on sun down, some steady dribbles in the past hour, from what the radar is telling it looks convective. Risk of a high based storm tonight?? Tomorrow is looking unstable especially in the early afternoon with a good chance of some storms, Friday will see the change. Sunday looks interesting too.
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