Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Front coming through WA today will fade, but a trough with a fair bit of instability will move through Vic on Sunday into Monday. Looks more like a spring system with a decent infeed of tropical moisture (precip water values in the 20-30mm) and quite unstable. Not widespread heavy falls, but should be patchy moderate falls, locally heavy. Strikes me as the type of system that can produce impressive winter thundestorms with small hail. Not a lot of shear or wind with the system so not particularly conducive to good organisation.

Again system is mild so more rain than snow in the alps :?
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8

Post by StratoBendigo »

More useful rain again. Nice.

Looks much colder from July 12 onwards. Not the first year it that it took a while for the ski season to get cranking (ie. 2003, 1984, 1991 etc).
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8

Post by hillybilly »

Good to see Progs not budging :D

Meanwhile three mild days ahead. Could well get close to 20C somewhere around the Melbourne metro area each of the next three days.

Back to winter next week.
User avatar
Didjman
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2097
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8

Post by Didjman »

Temp here currently 5/3. Humidity 89%. Can't see a fog in that currently; more likely a frost. Satpic shows no cloud. Re winter next week, the real cold blast looks more likely 3rd week of July from Stratospheric warming anomolies.
User avatar
Didjman
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2097
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Didjman »

Look how far south that high is on the MSLP, @1042Hpa, crazy for this time of year!
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Skywalker »

Brrrrrr, another near zero degree morning here. It's certainly challenging the joints on the bike. :snowflake:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
J
Jake Smethurst
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Agreed, Skywalker! Down to 1.3 degrees here this morning with a "feel-like" temp at -0.7. Getting out of bed was difficult, even the walk to the car! Can't imagine riding the old bike! :|
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3142
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Don’t suppose you need to know the temp in Bali.
Off topic.
Not looking forward to our return next week.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by JasmineStorm »

Starting to look like a 10 to 20mm event locally. GFS near the 20mm mark. Access R has large temperature gradient from the surface to 500 hPa around and above the frontal boundary Sunday evening, one to keep a watch on if a squall line develops.
S
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 999
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8

Post by Sean »

hillybilly wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:12 pm Good to see Progs not budging :D

Meanwhile three mild days ahead. Could well get close to 20C somewhere around the Melbourne metro area each of the next three days.

Back to winter next week.
City got to 19.1, which is close.

Winter on pause at the moment. Ready for some blustery, cold and showery rain :(
User avatar
Rivergirl
Memorial
Reactions:
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 6:04 pm
Location: Ferny Creek VIC
Contact:

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Rivergirl »

Same here Shell I’ve been in a heatwave in Europe the last 2 weeks
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Another mild one today, which is nice but not exactly what it should be. Horses are happy with the new grass growth, but our grass doesn’t normally grow in winter.

Historically yesterday is the coolest day of the year in Melbourne with an average max of 12.9C. No record (1994 saw a 21.7C in the first week of July which takes the “cake” for mid winter mild) but just another in the long list of “warmth”.

Still on track for Sunday and Monday. EC been showing near 10mm pretty widespread for the past dozen or so runs. Spot values near 20mm. Will finally get July off the mark.

Nice wintery week then to come. Should be quite wet, particularly near the coast and ranges where totals will go pass 50mm. Anticipating about 50mm here :)
User avatar
Didjman
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2097
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Didjman »

Re winter returning next week, check this link! At 70hpa, the looming split in the polar vortex is easily seen as well as the northward kink in the polar jet.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -69.02,488
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Min here of 11C which is about 2C warmer than our max should be :( Another mild day, but showers slowly extending form the east. Should see 5-10mm widespread, with heavier falls near the ranges (particularly northeast). All rain in the alps, though, with the freezing level above 2000m ATM.

Blustery, cool and wet week coming up with a strong front on Wednesday. Should add up in the usual spots, but looks pretty rainshadowed in East Gippsland and plains west of Melbourne. Not overly cold so snow will mainly stay in the alps. Need a thread for this weather event :D
s
snowfall
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by snowfall »

Very mild here the past couple of days - 14.9c and 14.8c. Currently 11.4c. Difficult to judge how we'll go with rain later today, given the usual challenges in these setups here, although this one is more northerly than northwesterly, so hopefully a couple of mm.
J
Jake Smethurst
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Agree, snowfall. Bit of a hard one to judge at the moment, but hopefully most of us can squeeze out a few mm's before next week. Melbourne should see some showers from the afternoon and north central parts or the ranges as HB says seems like doing the best according the latest modelling! :)
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
H
Horts
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 238
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Horts »

Strangely muggy on the peninsula today, 84% humidity, 15 degrees feels about 20!
H
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Hawker »

Horts wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:58 am Strangely muggy on the peninsula today, 84% humidity, 15 degrees feels about 20!
Was just doing a bit outside and was thinking the same.
Some rain in the north west Charlton up to 6.
Usually comes down through there to here.
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by StratoBendigo »

7mm so far this afternoon. Great stuff.
H
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Re: VIC - Unstable with showers and storms: July 7-8 2019

Post by Hawker »

Same here Strato, prompted a bit of run off
Locked