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VIC - Strong front and possible low: June 2-6 2019

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93ben
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by 93ben »

Skywalker wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:58 pm
tonycynic wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:28 pm New forecast is out, colder and wetter. Enjoy your evening, Monday morning won’t be nice.
Guess who has tomorrow off work! :D
Hopefully this time there are no dramas in the office & I can actually get out & do a snow chase.
I have tomorrow off too! Might head to mt dandenong.
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hillybilly
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by hillybilly »

Off to a good start here with a deluge just before 5pm. Already had 8mm, with a peak rainfall rate of 50mm/hr which is pretty good for winter. Very thick rain and foggy too. Now waiting to see where the rainband stalls and rotates. Radar and Progs suggest it will be pretty close to Melbourne. Wouldn’t surprise to see a few 50mm plus falls by morning. It strikes me as one of those event where the city is almost best placed.

Latest Progs tend to suggest we will actually get into a wrap of warmer air in easterly to southeasterly flow. The freezing levels rise quite high tomorrow now to sit near 1500m over central areas during the arvo. There will be period early when they drop locally below 1000m, but I’m struggling to see a good low level snow producer for Vic now. The coldest air shoots north towards northern NSW where areas like the Blue Mountains should get an event. Generally with these setups the more rain the warmer the system as the rain warms the mid levels.
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Sean
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Sean »

Very light rain here. Not sure what to expect judging by the radar.

I've never done well with these wrap-around type set ups. They either hit west of the bay, the city or somewhere in Gippsland, leaving me with no more than 10-15mm in the morning despite huge totals just tens of kilometres away.

We shall see.
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Wilko
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Wilko »

https://meteologix.com/au/satellite/vic ... z.htmlNice upgrade alright
I tend to be in the dry zone nowadays but there is concensus suggesting 40mm+
Looking at the satellite
the deluge is about to start
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Wilko
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Wilko »

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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by wobbie »

This afrernoon I watched this beautiful dark low cloud fly into the Dandenongs until it couldn't hold anymore, the hills disappeared. Looks like the low is on top of Laverton right now... Maybe Ballarat area is in the spot again
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Wilko »

Lightning !!
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Sean
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Sean »

Rain intensity gradually building. Haven't seen any lightning, though!

Radar filling in nicely.
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Wilko
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Wilko »

I am right on the edge of the red/orange near Moorabbin and I can hear a constant low rumble
Rain has been quite steady for the last hour
Just starting to rain quite heavy
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Sean
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Sean »

Wilko wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:55 pm I am right on the edge of the red/orange near Moorabbin and I can hear a constant low rumble
Rain has been quite steady for the last hour
Just starting to rain quite heavy
Rain steady and verging on heavy down this way. The blob over this side of the bay appears very stationary, but is trending down. The blob over on the other side is trending up. Looks like you're right wobbie.

I hope it dumps all night. Already at 5-10mm surely.
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Wilko »

Sean wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:06 pm
Wilko wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:55 pm I am right on the edge of the red/orange near Moorabbin and I can hear a constant low rumble
Rain has been quite steady for the last hour
Just starting to rain quite heavy
Rain steady and verging on heavy down this way. The blob over this side of the bay appears very stationary, but is trending down. The blob over on the other side is trending up. Looks like you're right wobbie.

I hope it dumps all night. Already at 5-10mm surely.
Spot on
I’m right on the edge
Not sure of the radar is slightly overestimating
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by stevco123 »

Definitely appears to concentrating tself over the eastern and southeastern suburbs. Rain has progressively getting heavier here the last hour or so
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Sean
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Sean »

It's easing off already :(

I could wake up to 15 or 50mm tomorrow :o

We'll see. Just glad we're having a top up
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by stevco123 »

stevco123 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:13 pm Definitely appears to concentrating tself over the eastern and southeastern suburbs. Rain has progressively getting heavier here the last hour or so
And just like that it's cleared... :x :x :x
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by stevco123 »

Hmmmmm... another western districts event???
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Sean
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Sean »

Seems to be focusing north of Melbourne :|

The Access C chart Jasmine posted earlier looks to be on the money...

Areas SE of Melbourne may end up doing the worst depending how well the inflow develops.

Hopefully it pulls east, but it's practically stationary at the moment.
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hillybilly
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like the band of rain has barely budged overnight :o Was mainly west of Melbourne last night and again this morning. There is a little low currently sat almost on top of Melbourne. This system will weaken in the coming few hours as the main low develops off the NSW coast. As that happens the rain focus will jump east into Gippsland. Going to be some wild conditions out east with big waves and long fetch south and southeast winds,

Been quite lucky here (for the eastern burbs) with 16mm. We got a jump start from the initial band of heavy showers which passed through the southern Dandenongs then out through Belgrave. Not a lot in the northern Dandenongs with sites showing around 10mm. We should see a brief period of heavy showers when the southerly pushes through, though these systems tend to clear quickly and the showers train so will be bit hit miss out here. Could land anything between 5mm and 25mm more.

Meanwhile, solid fall clocking up in west central. Must be a few spots nearing 50mm. And city has just clocked its wettest day for the year passing the previous high of 11mm in February :D only 140mm to catch up the the YTD average :? Be good to make a decent dint in that.
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Hawker »

Light to moderate rain since about 12 ish I think,
been on the top end all night. Will check when it gets light enough.
Maybe 15 mm at a guess.
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Adam38 »

Very heavy rain here!! Private weather stations nearby have recorded 30-40mm since midnight and it’s really coming down now.
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Re: Strong front and possible low: June 2-6

Post by Macedonian »

Hammering down at Mt Macedon, quite windy as well. Down to 1.8C through the night.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
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