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VIC - Cut off low: May 19-23 2019

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 5:14 am
by hillybilly
Decent cut off low and trough developing in the bight, but likely to weaken and slide south as it approaches Victoria. It looks like dropping moderate or better falls near the SA border, but lighter as you go east. The northern slopes might also do ok with upslope winds.

Not expecting a lot for Melbourne or central area, but can always hope to be wrong. Also quite mild conditions, with temperatures running a few degrees above normal for the time of year.

We’re are dropping back on the YTD and Melbourne is likely to starting setting records for driest YTD from the weekend, and needs about 20mm before the end of May to avoid the driest January to May on record :(

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 8:58 am
by Tassiedave
Forecast temps for Hobart over the next week: 18,18,19,16,18,16,17
Long term May average: 14.5
Average so far this May: 15.9

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:04 pm
by Sean
Was hoping the cyclone up north would inject some moisture and interact with a front, but it's not lining up for us. Good news for SA though.

Things may change. We'll see..

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 6:31 pm
by Tassiedave
Wow - Melbourne forecast to have six 20 degree days in a row in the second half of May!

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 6:30 am
by hillybilly
Tassiedave wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 6:31 pm
Wow - Melbourne forecast to have six 20 degree days in a row in the second half of May!
Not good. And late next week brings another burst of warmth. Depending on timing it looks to be setting up for a run at some really mild June temperatures. It’s been in the high 30s in northwest OZ for a few days, and we have been within a whisker of getting the latest 38C on record for OZ. Far too much warmth for almost winter.

Incoming system still looks like a west of Horsham type system. Northern slopes might get a bit too, but further east south and the east will struggle. Am fearing we are shaping up for a below average month if something doesn’t brew up soon :x

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 7:18 am
by stevco123
It's been worse. In 2003 or 04 there was a week of 23 to 24 degrees.

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 8:16 am
by StratoBendigo
stevco123 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 7:18 am
It's been worse. In 2003 or 04 there was a week of 23 to 24 degrees.
Or the 13 days over 20c in a row back in 2014 between May 11 and 23....

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 10:20 pm
by stevco123
StratoBendigo wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:16 am
stevco123 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 7:18 am
It's been worse. In 2003 or 04 there was a week of 23 to 24 degrees.
Or the 13 days over 20c in a row back in 2014 between May 11 and 23....
Yep. Nothing unusual this year.

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 5:58 am
by hillybilly
stevco123 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 10:20 pm
StratoBendigo wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 8:16 am
stevco123 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 7:18 am
It's been worse. In 2003 or 04 there was a week of 23 to 24 degrees.
Or the 13 days over 20c in a row back in 2014 between May 11 and 23....
Yep. Nothing unusual this year.
It doesn’t need to set a record to be unusual (particularly given how many warm records have occurred in the last twenty years). Melbourne max should be around 16.7C in May. We are headed for about 18C, perhaps a bit higher. Pattern for OZ is pretty similar. Melbourne is also about to dip below it’s driest start to a year, which is pretty significant :?

Bit of a split on the progs with EC and Canadian pushing the rain further east, with some into central areas and moderate falls out west and possibly northcentral. GFS2/3 and UKMO not so keen. Might then get a couple of fronts next week, though tending to slip south so not a sure thing. Hopefully EC is picking the low.

Also, fingers crossed for some rain in the southern NT. Could be the first proper rain in the Alice in nearly six months :D

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Sun May 19, 2019 7:30 am
by hillybilly
Looking like a more western Vic event now. Locally good falls towards SA, but rest of us will see not much.

Great to see spots around the Alice score 20-60mm after their failed wet season.

Later next week starting to look unstable with potential for some decent falls.

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Sun May 19, 2019 9:30 am
by Didjman
Current MJO forecast showing strong pulse in our tropics near end of month.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... egfs.shtml

Fingers crossed it connects with a few fronts for more meaningfull rain

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 7:21 am
by hillybilly
Tracking pretty much as expected. Some good falls right near the SA border but thinning quickly as you go west. Maybe a mm or two for central areas.

Currently getting some showers in FC with about 0.4mm so far. Another really mild one with our minimum of 12C higher than our max should be at this time of year :?

Later this week looks a bit better for return of wetter weather.

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 7:24 am
by Australis(Shell3155)
That tricked me,
Warm wind - wash everything in sight with off peak power and tank water,
Next time I'll check radar first, now what to do with all this wet washing.. hmm

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:12 am
by Didjman
0.5mm at Wallan so far

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 9:12 am
by Skywalker
Shield in full force here with everything being completely shreaded. :roll:
Will be back to watering plants by the end of the week by the looks of it.

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 9:58 am
by Gordon
3mm here, and some better falls of 5 to 9mm through parts of the southwest, southern Wimmera and north central. A dream break for this area and those places - great to see the country turning emerald green; one benefit of the unusual warmth.

Hope the end of the week gives the east a turn!

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 11:06 am
by StratoBendigo
4mm here this morning. Before it heats up again.

Potential is there for a cold outbreak on Sunday and beyond, although not a whole lot of agreement yet in the forecast models.

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 12:48 pm
by JasmineStorm
5mm here, 86mm MTD, 11mm above the May mean, looking like over a 100mm + for the May total is a lock in.

Sharp dipping negative SAM in a week from now that has originated from a moderate sudden stratospheric warming event over the south pole 2 weeks ago. The polar vortex is coming soon :)

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 2:48 pm
by Wilko
2mm here in the bayside 🐪
33 mm MTD
78mm Ytd Average 268mm :(
“The tap is officially turned off”

I predicted this 12 months ago and I hate being right on this occasion
Still watering

Re: Cut off low: May 19-23

Posted: Mon May 20, 2019 7:25 pm
by hillybilly
1.2mm here with a mild windy one.

City has just dipped below the driest start to a year on record :( Not just us either, with Perth, Adelaide, Hobart and Melbourne all sub 100mm YTD which hasn’t happen before in our records at this point in May. That’s an astonishing lack of rain in southern OZ.

Or grass is growing gangbusters up here with the warmth, when I usually put the mower away early May.

Later this week looks fairly promising for a burst of wet, cold and windy weather. New thread time :D