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VIC - Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May 2019

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StratoBendigo
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by StratoBendigo »

EC ups the ante and reckons 72mm here on Wednesday-Thursday...

I suspect the strong MJO pulse is helping.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by JasmineStorm »

StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:57 am EC ups the ante and reckons 72mm here on Wednesday-Thursday...

I suspect the strong MJO pulse is helping.
Yep and the negative SAM that has sent the polar jet north http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 42#p109842
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Wilko
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Wilko »

UK, new GFS upgrading for this area 50 to 100mm, EC 40 to 80mm. Their projected NW flow means potential rainshadowing south of the range into Melbourne. Looking forward to seeing Access C tonight :)
[/quote]

Yes hard to get excited about this one with rainshadowing
Expecting around 5-10mm in Melbourne metro according to most models
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Skywalker »

stevco123 wrote: Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:20 pm Looks like 3 to 5mm in Melbourne metro (2mm in West, 4mm in east over the course of 16 hours. Mt Dandenong will get 15mm, Mouny Macedon 1mm and CBD 3mm.

Now save this post and get back to me on Friday :) :D :D :D
I'm with you Stevco, especially when it comes to the western desert. ;)
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hillybilly
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by hillybilly »

Progs seem to have bounced which is a relief. Band of storms spreading into rain over northcentral and central areas Wednesday into Thursday which will give the best falls for most of us. Looks to be more northerly at this point, which tends to lessen the rainshadow as it usually means upslide (which can offset some of the lee subsidence).

Action then moves into the northeast.

Main lows passes to our near south on Friday into Saturday, with gusty winds and showers.

Tending to think about 40mm for FC, perhaps half that for the city. Doesn’t look too good for areas west of about the Grampians and East Gippsland.

Melbourne and Adelaide both running driest start to a year on record (and suspect hottest year, but haven’t closely checked) so desperately need this one.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks hillybilly. I leave for Mt Buffalo tomorrow then continue on up to Mt Hotham on Friday. Going to be very soggy and snow at Mt Hotham on Saturday
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by StratoBendigo »

GFS has joined the party with a forecast of 70 mm here.

It almost seems a bit over-the-top to be honest. Probably end up half that amount IMO.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Gordon »

Some underwhelming totals for south of Divide in the latest BOM forecasts :?

E.g. Mt Dandenong 0-2mm tomorrow, 2-6mm Thursday, 0-1mm Friday, 2-5mm Saturday. Gives a best case total of 14mm??
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by weathergasm »

If history is any guide the BOM are probably wise to divide the model-projected totals by five every time. Can’t fault them lol
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by JasmineStorm »

Slight wiggles in the dual cut off lows on the models and the big totals move accordingly. 00Z Access R going for a 150mm+ water bomb around Euroa, EC going similar of 100mm+ just west of here around Daylesford. Looking like a significant convergence zone developing late Wednesday into the early hours of Thursday morning. Position unknown :)

Subtropical and polar jets are now interacting over S.A with the first cut off low starting to form south of Kangaroo Island. Once this circulation and 2nd new low in the bight gets spinning, models will lock onto the convergence zone position for Victoria. Should start seeing instability on the rise tomorrow morning as the first trough approaches from the west.
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Sean
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Sean »

Gordon wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:53 pm Some underwhelming totals for south of Divide in the latest BOM forecasts :?

E.g. Mt Dandenong 0-2mm tomorrow, 2-6mm Thursday, 0-1mm Friday, 2-5mm Saturday. Gives a best case total of 14mm??
They haven't been from the start, despite the models showing signs of decent totals south of it.

I'm wondering if it's a we've-seen-this-before kind of thing. I.e. these systems have certain tendencies despite behaviour that models are showing.

We'll see. Really would like to see 20mm through metro areas, but would love a whole lot more
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas temps today: Hobart 22.1, Friendly Beaches 21.9, Dunalley 21.7, St Helens 21.1, Fingal 20.9, Launceston 18.8, Wynyard 17.8
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by stevco123 »

I never trust rain from the north. It seems you always be patchy. My honest prediction is 10mm max in Melbourne metro on wed/Thu, but 20mm on Saturday
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Sean »

Very good totals adding up along the SA coast... we have actual moisture, people :D

Fairly confident of 'something' at the very least.
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wobbie
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by wobbie »

I just hope it Pour down somewhere, in all honesty I don't care where
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Supercellimpact
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by Supercellimpact »

stevco123 wrote: Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:06 pm I never trust rain from the north. It seems you always be patchy. My honest prediction is 10mm max in Melbourne metro on wed/Thu, but 20mm on Saturday
Lol up here is the opposite, rain from the north is trusted usually, from the south it's typically weak and short lived.
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by QldTwister »

Big rain event on and North of the ranges east of a line Swan hill to Colac get excited
20-40mm easy with many in the 50-80mm range and some over 100mm

West of this line 5-10mm maybe, if that, sad, Mallee and that really need it, less than 10mm so far this year there

Isol 100-130mm+ in the NE ranges

Framers and country side need it more than us but most of us 10-20mm and further east closer to 40mm in the hills etc

Enjoy next 48 hours lots of rain and storms very widespread for VIC ad NSW
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by QldTwister »

Bendgio easy 20mm, but thinking you more like 40-60mm the band of stroms and convergaence will be heavy and intense tomorrow night were that sets up heavy falls for sure

Big day and night of watching Sat and radar tomorrow
Bring on the heat and stroms
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93ben
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Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Post by 93ben »

Wow it's 20.6 degrees atm. No wonder why I feel it's hot.
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