VIC - Warm and dry weather rolls on: April 17-30 2019

[Sean]

Do you know where I can find Melbourne's annual rainfall data going back to when records began? I want a list of every annual total from back then to now, as it would be interesting to see if there are any patterns, but I just can't seem to find it on BOM's website (not user friendly at all)

Direct links at the URLs below. You can also use the interface at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weat ... _num=86071
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weat ... num=086338

Just started to rain here. Was expecting it to start tomorrow. Satellite shows mid level cloud thickening southwards.

Legend!

Really off topic, but the Millennium Drought years are atrocious. Then bam, 2010 and 2011 strike. Both well above average. 1994 is just about where it starts declining, but which is followed by good years in 1995 and 1996, but then 1997 hits and we only record 360mm for the whole year.

Interesting to note that many of the bountiful years come in twos (La Nina years?). Also, we've only surpassed 900mm 3x since 1856. 2014 and 2015 are both pretty dismal. 2016 and 2017 were decent, both around the 600mm mark.

What's clear, though, is that this below average trend of the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s has no precedence. There are bad years going all the way back to 1856, but they're nowhere near as sustained. I.e. the periods of dry are followed by stretches of average or above average rainfall. 1906 to 1915 comes close, but the dry years aren't as dry, and they're also followed by a very sustained and wet period of above average rainfall.

[hillybilly]

0.2mm here overnight. Currently foggy with a few spits. Looks like a gloomy day with some showers or drizzle. Not a lot in it but with April so dismally dry anything is welcome.

Front on Friday looking like quite a doozie with 850Ts dropping to around -2C, though moisture starved. Could make for a decent fall of snow at Baw Baw etc and frosts inland.

Btw here an update on the Melbourne dry.... https://www.theage.com.au/politics/vict ... 51glb.html

[StratoBendigo]

Sea surface anomalies don't give me much confidence for rain in the coming weeks. Much cooler than average water off WA at present, and looks locked in.

There's going to be some savage frosts this winter IMO.

[Dane]

Managed to get lucky early this morning. 4.0mm's at Ballarat airport MTD 10.0mm's YTD 42.0mm's.
Driest first 4 months on record is 60.4mm's in the drought year of 1967 so looks like we have that one beaten.
I recorded 4.5mm's up to 9am today taking my MTD to 9.7mm's. Monthly average is 51mm's.

[Adam38]

Nothing here, sitting on 30mm YTD. I’ve noticed locally, old River Gums are dropping large limbs lately including one that fell on the pub car park.

[JasmineStorm]

EC going for an early May haymaker. Large cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex that cuts off a surface low over NSW/Vic. It then gets the moisture advection machine cranking off the Tasman into a convergence zone heading into central and Gippsland. Needs a few more runs but other models are also picking up the upper low in a weeks time. Its starting to get volatile

[hillybilly]

EC going for an early May haymaker. Large cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex that cuts off a surface low over NSW/Vic. It then gets the moisture advection machine cranking off the Tasman into a convergence zone heading into central and Gippsland. Needs a few more runs but other models are also picking up the upper low in a weeks time. Its starting to get volatile

EC been on/off/on/off/on last few runs. Not much confidence, but does look like a decent prospect (maybe).

Meanwhile, a piddly 0.6mm for us today. Pretty disappointed with that. Was expecting 2-5mm.

Now look to Friday's strong but moisture starved front (which I suspect will be mainly cold and windy). Could well see some raised dust with that one

Maybe a thread next week in which we can talk about real weather, rather than this dismal string of disappointments

[JasmineStorm]

EC going for an early May haymaker. Large cut off upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex that cuts off a surface low over NSW/Vic. It then gets the moisture advection machine cranking off the Tasman into a convergence zone heading into central and Gippsland. Needs a few more runs but other models are also picking up the upper low in a weeks time. Its starting to get volatile

EC been on/off/on/off/on last few runs. Not much confidence, but does look like a decent prospect (maybe).

With so many false starts in the last 2 months, this set up needs to still exist within 100 hours on every main ensemble to have any confidence

[Australis(Shell3155)]

As much as the rainfall is dismal,
It's a pretty time, the clouds with sun rays sparkling through.
The colouring of the leaves, very pretty, reds yellows and green.
A little moisture, the 5mm Blackie mentioned
And follow ups has seen the talcum turn a tinge of green before your eyes,
What used to be a lake of water then a mud plain then a green tinge in a few showers..
Mansfield had a little yesterday afternoon and upon arriving in Bayswater 4pm if only it had eventuated as it was chunky drops, then they stopped.
Arrived back to FTG and could still see push bike tracks in the dust, nothing I presume in the prior three days to even settle it down,
Enough moisture this morning on tin roof to hear a few drops into the temporary down pipes set up in anticipation.

[snowfall]

0.4mm here yesterday, which takes us up to 3.2mm for the month. We're also tracking about 3c above average for our maximum temperature. Quite a few stressed and dying trees out this way, as well as fields with bare dirt patches and cracked ground. The latest EC run for late next week does look good for Victoria. It's still a long way out, but at least there's something on the horizon even if it's still in theory.

[Gordon]

I don't know why I torture myself like this, but ACCESS-G now broadly agrees with EC re a cut-off low over Vic late next week:

[StratoBendigo]

I don't know why I torture myself like this, but ACCESS-G now broadly agrees with EC re a cut-off low over Vic late next week:

And completely gone on 18Z run. I have very little confidence at present.

[tonycynic]

Have faith people, there will be rain next weekend. Am doing my first market in 18 months, the last three I did were almost rained out. Expecting the same.

[Horts]

For those interested.. 20ft at Bells tomorrow for the Rippy!!

Epic day of surfing ahead

[hillybilly]

Solid front for tomorrow with 850Ts dropping to about -2C and squally swly to wstly winds. Unfortunately moisture starved so showers just near the coast and ranges. Hoping for 5-10mm here, and should see locally near 20mm about the usual wet spots (Otways, Donna Buang, South Gippsland).

EC looks very good for next week, and GFS3 and CMC also onboard. Looks a bit like last year when we went from baking dry and warm/mild to cold and wet with not much proper autumn growing season inbetween

[Tassiedave]

Tas temps today: Fingal 20.1, Maria Isl 20.0, Friendly Beaches 19.8, Hobart 19.1, Wynyard 18.6, Launceston 18.1 - also Mt Read 26mm of rain

[Gordon]

I don't know why I torture myself like this, but ACCESS-G now broadly agrees with EC re a cut-off low over Vic late next week:

And completely gone on 18Z run. I have very little confidence at present.

ACCESS-G looking even better on the latest run?? http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall overnight in Tasmania: Mt Read 47mm, Cradle Valley 21mm, Reece Dam 19mm, Scottsdale 5.6mm, Low Head 5.6mm, Hobart 1mm

[occluded]

I am pleased to report that we have actual RAIN here. A short sharp band of rain, just in time for the school drop of course.

[hillybilly]

Pouring here and foggy atm, though looks to be short lived 4mm so far.

Cities 3mm makes for the wettest day of the month and nearly double the April total Now about 15% of the average

Some showers to follow in the cold air.

Looks like locally 10mm about parts of the exposed coast