Impressive cold front showing up for late Thursday into Friday with a long southwest fetch and deep cold air. Warm Thursday, but winds picking up and the chance of the odd shower. Front comes through Friday with a band of showers/storms/rain and then we have 24-36 hours of showery conditions. 850Ts drop to around -2C so snow will fall on the alps, and potentially down to the higher sub-alpine locations (such as Mt Macedon). Expect a bit of accumulation at Lake Mt, Baw Baw etc. Expecting lots of coldies, with local hail/thunder etc later Friday and Saturday
The system doesn't have much of an infeed, but should still produce lots of showers in southern and mountain areas. Expect east central will see 15-40mm, with good falls also around the Otways, South Gippsland and the northeast.
The usual dry spots will struggle (without the moisture infeed).
Second front on Monday with more showers.
Of course, there is still the potential for a downgrade, but currently looks promising and GFS3 and EC have hardly budged on consecutive runs (if anything they are looking a bit better).