VIC - Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by WeatherViewer » Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:30 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:33 pm
Humid max of 20C for the (after 9am) period. Nice cool breeze, but sultry sun.

Progs persisting with an earlier front on Sunday, with the odd shower about. Before then warm to hot to very hot. We don't get the worst of it - SA is hotter, while Tasmania has about half the state forecast to break March record highs on Friday or Saturday :o

Bit early to get too excited, but CMC and GFS 0Z runs are showing a decent rain event next week now. Waiting to see if EC has it. Progs have been toying with the idea of a front next week standing up and finally dragging down a decent in feed from the tropics.
Still quite a bit of heat North West of the country, still the potential for another heat blast after this week? What's your thought's hillbilly?

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:22 am

WeatherViewer wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:30 pm
hillybilly wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:33 pm
Humid max of 20C for the (after 9am) period. Nice cool breeze, but sultry sun.

Progs persisting with an earlier front on Sunday, with the odd shower about. Before then warm to hot to very hot. We don't get the worst of it - SA is hotter, while Tasmania has about half the state forecast to break March record highs on Friday or Saturday :o

Bit early to get too excited, but CMC and GFS 0Z runs are showing a decent rain event next week now. Waiting to see if EC has it. Progs have been toying with the idea of a front next week standing up and finally dragging down a decent in feed from the tropics.
Still quite a bit of heat North West of the country, still the potential for another heat blast after this week? What's your thought's hillbilly?
Yep... too much heat for my liking. We want the 570 thickness line to head north. It still covers most of OZ, so the barest northerly and bang we are back in the mid 30s. After the hottest December, January and not quite record February for OZ, guess it's unreasonable to expect us to suddenly return to normal, even if we all cross our fingers and toes.

Progs doing their stupid dance next week. Each of GFS, GFS3, Canadian and EC manage to throw up a different scenario. They do eventually all bring some rain to Vic, but where and how much is completely up for grabs. Looks like the main front to flush out the hot air won't make it til Tuesday or Wednesday.

Meanwhile, we start with the run of hot days today. Not liking Thur/Fri/Sat and possibly first half of Sunday - should all go past 35C in most spots, and near 40C in the northwest. Last thing the gardens/forests need.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Wilko » Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:24 pm

Yes HB I share your concern
Recently spent some time Philip Island way in San Remo and was alarmed at the landscape
Beautiful place but Countryside was the color of hay..dead dry
As predicted we are just following the previous summer trend in the northern hemisphere
On a brief side note thr UK has experienced its warmest winter day on record, the Met Office has revealed

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Adam38 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:20 pm

I am currently staying in a lakefront cabin on Lake Hume
about 30km east of Albury... the waters edge is 1km away... l’ve never seen it this low before!

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:28 pm

Adam38 wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:20 pm
I am currently staying in a lakefront cabin on Lake Hume
about 30km east of Albury... the waters edge is 1km away... l’ve never seen it this low before!
Down to 27.83%. The last time it was that low was Autumn 2016. It was full by September that year.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by flyfisher » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:12 pm

Another session of garden watering - I am even bucketing the bath water from the kids bath onto the gardens.

The cold patch of water off WA has shrunk and is now surrounded by warm water on all sides - this is a good sign. Keep going you good thing into Autumn and winter!

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:58 pm

29C here so just stayed under the 30C. Four more hot ones to come, though Sunday will start hot then cool. Some hope, but geez could still disappear, that next week will bring a break in the pattern.

Not looking forward to the next water bill, but when you’ve spent thousands on plants you can’t really afford to let them die :?

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by snowfall » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:13 pm

Up to 30c here today after a low of 9c last night. Not looking forward to the next few days. It’s such a struggle trying to keep the garden alive, and I don’t think the countryside can take much more dryness. It’s looking very parched out this way. Let’s hope for some rain next week - at this stage even a little bit is better than nothing. One thing I have noticed is that the nights out here are getting cooler overall, though will be quite warm over the next few nights. Autumn is gradually closing in.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:37 am

ACCESS-G, EC, CMC and GFS all showing a significant rain event next week. Looks to be two part - first system around Tuesday PM then a second around Friday. Might be the odd shower with Sunday/Monday's trough, but sparse. The sequence looks pretty straight-forward - trough stalls then a strengthening front approaches from the south, which would tend to mean some confidence in the pattern holding.

Meanwhile a hot one today, tomorrow and Saturday. Change day on Sunday, but hot early.

Our overnight min was 23C here, so a yuck airmass :( Thankfully winds stay fairly light, otherwise this would be a bad one for fires with dry, heat and low humidity :?

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Macedonian » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:21 am

That's a hot min HB. I had 18.8C (now) and Trentham dropped to 9.9C.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Sean » Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:04 pm

Well, we didn't make average in terms of rainfall this month, or last month - what a surprise. YTD obviously tracking below average - what a surprise.

This is probably no surprise either: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/# ... 2019/2/27/


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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by WeatherViewer » Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:35 pm

Currently 40°C at Avalon, it's only Thursday folks! :o

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Amandagorural » Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:52 pm

I'm less than 20 KMs from Avalon across the bay and although BOM has said it was 39 here the PWS said it only topped out at 33 though I'm only 2 streets away from the beach. Had some fat drops of rain half an hour ago, enough to put just over half a mm in the gauge, and enough to soak my hair and give me some relief

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Jake Smethurst » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:50 pm

Blimey it's warm out there! Bit of convection bubbling away, some thundery showers to the west of Melbourne and over the eastern ranges. Will have to check how high we got to today a bit later. Maybe a thundery shower to come.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:53 pm

33C here so about 38C sea level equivalent. Have lost track of the number of 100F (sea level equivalent days we've had this year). Few lumpy Cu around, so maybe the outside chance of a shower tonight.

Spent most the day out in the Latrobe Valley. Some big thunderies over the ranges, and drove through the edge of one near Sale. Car thermometer said 39C and it was raining :?

Airmass next two days doesn't really change much so not expecting much change Friday, Saturday or until late on Sunday :o

GFS/GFSV3 and CMC all sticking with a strong front for Tuesday late. Cold enough for snow on the alps come Wednesday. Let hope so ;)

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Wilko » Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:21 pm

Sean wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:04 pm
Well, we didn't make average in terms of rainfall this month, or last month - what a surprise. YTD obviously tracking below average - what a surprise.

This is probably no surprise either: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/# ... 2019/2/27/


Welcome to the subtropics, Victoria
Thanks Sean
I’ve been searching the BOM for some time trying to find a good site which encompasses soil moisture etc and alas you’ve found one for me ..Your a legend mate :P
I don’t know what everyone else thinks but I find the BOM site has similar information in all these
different headings.
The site is not user friendly in a format for the average puNter
Reached 38c here🥵🥵
Not all that confident at all for decent falls next week

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Horts » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:25 pm

2 extremely short bursts of torrential wind and rain at Safety Beach, dog was not impressed to be at the beach when they hit both times :D . Rapid drop in temp. Couple sparks over the bay. All over in about 1 minute both times. Now temp has sky rocketed back up!

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Didjman » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:54 pm

Heaps more fires out east from CGs

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Adam38 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:10 pm

Spectacular light show up here!! I am just across the border in NSW about 30km east of Albury-Wodonga, beautiful evening up here ⚡️⚡️🍺🍺

Edit, the best lightning show I’ve seen in a long time! Storm sat overhead for almost 2 hours, not a lot of rain
but plenty of close cg’s and loud thunder.

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly » Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:22 am

Min of 24C here. Reckon that must be getting close to a autumn record here. Stupidly high temperatures. It looks like Laverton and Melbourne Ap have set records for overnight March temperatures :(

Another garden frying hot one today. Our hottest summer ever for OZ rolls into autumn :roll:

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