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VIC - Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

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hillybilly
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly »

Hottest March night on record? Got down to 22.3 last night and was 22.6 night before. But record is 26.5 on 13 March 2013???
Melbourne Ap, Ferny Creek and Laverton have all set a new high minimum this month. City got a brief cooling associated with the trough and storm outflow.

Those that missed records were up there.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Didjman »

Below is a link to the Anticrapuscular rays panorama from yesterday. It was pretty stunning so was happy with that and no storm :D

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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Horts »

Awesome night last night, few beers on the deck after an arvo surf can't be beaten. Going to savour every moment of the heat before autumn sets in before another long Melbourne winter.

Blow out down here this morning, Bunyip fire very visible on radar, not good.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by stevco123 »

that Bunyip fire was quite small about 2 hours ago and visible from here, but since then has grown extraordinarily and has just about blocked out the sun down here.

Here is a pic from about half an hour ago. That sky is now all but covered in smoke
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by stevco123 »

Updated pics. Blue skies to my west and south, different picture to the east
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Tassiedave »

NEW RECORD : Hobart has reached 38.2 beating previous March record of 37.3. Also the highest March temp recorded in Tasmania
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Skywalker »

That smoke is currently over the top of us here on the island, resulting in a very eerie orange glow to the sunlight.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Tassiedave »

Hobart update 39.1. Could break the previous March record by 2 degrees. Impressive as records go back 130 years at the same site
EDIT: And now Cape Bruny is 39.4 degrees!
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly »

Down at Sandy Point and can see three fires. One at the Prom, one over Bunyip other near Dargo. Light winds overall, but heat and dry isn’t helping. Big convection over the Dargo fire which looks borderline Pyro Cu to Cb.

Tas record gone by more than 2C.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by JasmineStorm »

Not much to report from up here, after a prolonged cool period in Feb, a nice warm finish to summer. Still plenty of water in the tanks and plenty of underground water to tap into, so all good here. Rainfall wise, a very similar total for the last 6 months compared to Sept 2015-Feb 2016 of around 200mm. Back in that last dry period, there were nasty winds up here as Lancefield found out in October 2015. So far, so good. When the Autumn break arrived in May 2016, I got 800mm in the southern wet season with a negative IOD. The one think I have learnt about being on the land north of the divide, when the rains come, they come hard.

Dry lightning is now probably the biggest risk over the next couple of days as south east and east of Melbourne has found out. Total totals on the rise into the 50’s here late tomorrow afternoon, so will be keeping a close eye on that. The monsoon comeback over Northern Australia is still on track for mid March, the cyclone season peak ;)
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by snowfall »

Nasty fires out there in the east. Some of the areas got some reasonable rain yesterday, but clearly not enough to stop lightning from triggering fires. Goes to show just how dry it is.

Finished February here with temperatures not too far above average (ended with 26.1c maximum and 12.9c minimum) due to the cooler spell during the month. But gosh it's just so dry. Haven't had any rain since 12th February, and with the heat these last few days, it's terribly parched. Currently sitting on our maximum for the day of 34.3c. It was windy early this morning, but has since calmed down. Not liking our chances for much rain this week unfortunately. But at least there is something being modelled for a bit of hope!
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by snowfall »

JasmineStorm wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:25 pm Not much to report from up here, after a prolonged cool period in Feb, a nice warm finish to summer. Still plenty of water in the tanks and plenty of underground water to tap into, so all good here. Rainfall wise, a very similar total for the last 6 months compared to Sept 2015-Feb 2016 of around 200mm. Back in that last dry period, there were nasty winds up here as Lancefield found out in October 2015. So far, so good. When the Autumn break arrived in May 2016, I got 800mm in the southern wet season with a negative IOD. The one think I have learnt about being on the land north of the divide, when the rains come, they come hard.
Would be great if this year followed a similar pattern as 2016. The SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean are at least looking a bit better than they were a month or two ago. We've still got groundwater flowing here too, and the tanks, which we really entirely on for water, are thankfully still above half.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Horts »

Plume from that fire has just exploded in the last 30mins, out on the bay at the moment, haze has cleared. It's huge.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly »

Horts wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:20 pm Plume from that fire has just exploded in the last 30mins, out on the bay at the moment, haze has cleared. It's huge.
That fire has increased by about four fold in the last six hours. That’s puts it burning get around 500 hectares an hour, or about 5km squared. Running into populated farmland now. Under a huge smoke plume here at Walkerville. Fortunately not much wind the next three days, but once a fire gets to that size it generates its own weather which makes them so much more dangerous :(

Seen reports that the cloud top is around 8km so borderline pyrocumulonimbus. Could well spark soon and produce local rainfall downstream.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Horts »

hillybilly wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:52 pm
Horts wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:20 pm Plume from that fire has just exploded in the last 30mins, out on the bay at the moment, haze has cleared. It's huge.
Seen reports that the cloud top is around 8km so borderline pyrocumulonimbus. Could well spark soon and produce local rainfall downstream.
Can confirm that, I've got a clear view of it and it's massive. Definitely looks like it's about to go pyro if it hasn't already.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by JasmineStorm »

Yes snowfall, a 2016 turn around would be nice indeed.

HB and Horts your observations are spot on. Bunyip fire is starting to pop on the enhanced IR.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Horts »

FB_IMG_1551520816803.jpg
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Awesome photo of it trying to go/going pyro. Hopefully everybody is safe out there.
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by hillybilly »

Word is that Dover in Tasmania cracked 40C today. Won’t know until the official numbers come in, but that’s possibly the furthest south we’ve seen a 40C in OZ in any month. Will take a bit of digging to verify.

Progs still holding a strong front for later Tuesday. Time for a thread for that. Could well be an autumn break (if we get followup) for areas east of about Dandenongs and perhaps also South Gippsland and the Otways. Cold enough for snow at Lake Mt and Baw Baw :D
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by 93ben »

That fire in Bunyip is nasty. Already some houses gone now. Will there be enough rain tonight when the change comes through to help put these fires out?
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Re: Return of heat: Feb 24 to March 5

Post by Gordon »

Not tonight sadly, though at least temps will drop & humidity increase. Maybe Tuesday evening/Wednesday rain may help.
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