VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

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hillybilly
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by hillybilly » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:54 pm

Getting rumbles here atm from that cell near 40km away near Healesville. Strange for it to propagate so far. Big low booms :D

Liking the look of EC for followup. Good southwesterly fetch tomorrow so should go into showers and drizzle. Stronger front for Saturday and stronger one on Tuesday. That systems almost cold enough for snow on the peaks. Would not be surprised if it packs a squally rainband then the odd coldie behind. Could change before we get there, but looks quite autumn like which will got well with such a hot bay.

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by mick » Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:35 pm

I think the BOM relies too much on its super computer in melb, the one that had to be craned in through the window years ago.

Putting an aircraft up and or asking those further up the Telegraph line would not be less accurate.

Hundreds of aircraft are up at 30-40000 ft, watching things develop in real time.

Farmer Brown can still forecast the rains pretty well.

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Sean » Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:27 pm

Nothing is more frustrating than storms for us at sea level. For those up higher, it may be the elusive snow, but at sea level, the ONLY fun weather in this city is a good thunderstorm. And unfortunately, they're unpredictable by nature. Take that cell yesterday, for instance, a big black core headed straight for Lara, yet it totally collapsed in one or two frames on the radar - I thought it would cross the bay. But nope.

Never get your hopes up when storms are in the forecast. They know the chance of them 'occurring' but as for where exactly, how long for, etc, they're too unpredictable and localised.

I'm ready for winter now. I'm sick of the dry. Everything is really looking sh*t now. Brown grass from here to the city, not to mention all the elms with leaf drop.

Hopefully the southern polar vortex breaks this winter. Give us a cold outbreak to make up for this dry summer :x

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by hillybilly » Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:04 am

Thick as fog here this morning with heavy drizzle. Good soaking type which gives the forest a good drink as the branches and leaves catch a lot more than the gauge :D

Closing in on 2mm more, so just shy of 6mm for the last 24 hours, and nearly 25mm for the event. Looks like a cool cloudy day with the odd shower in the south, and drizzle about the south facing hills. More patchy falls out east. Some spots are doing pretty well in the last week (such as Sale which has had nearly 40mm) which other spots nearby have had close to zilch :(

Tomorrow’s front is looking quite good. GFS3 has a really sharp trough with thickness values dropping to about 544, maybe a tad less. It has a band of heavy showers and possibly storms affecting southern and mountain areas. Could well see a few briefs flurries around the tops of Baw Baw and Lake Mt (very marginal but might just get there with the heaviest showers). Similar system for Tuesday. Not much in the north, just milder and quite windy, which will translate into hot and windy by the time you get to NSW.

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Skywalker » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:20 am

Sean wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:27 pm
Nothing is more frustrating than storms for us at sea level. For those up higher, it may be the elusive snow, but at sea level, the ONLY fun weather in this city is a good thunderstorm. And unfortunately, they're unpredictable by nature. Take that cell yesterday, for instance, a big black core headed straight for Lara, yet it totally collapsed in one or two frames on the radar - I thought it would cross the bay. But nope.
Couldn't agree more Sean, especially here in the uneventful western suburbs. It's the only fun weather that "occasionally" occurs, and I've lost count of the amount of near misses we have had this season.
Sean wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:27 pm
I'm ready for winter now. I'm sick of the dry.
I personally hate winter for the reasons mentioned above. Nothing ever happens here & most of the wet weather & limited snow events occur on the other side of the bay and up in the hills. There are of course many other reasons why I dislike winter which I won't go into.

Back to today's events, absolutely perfect conditions for the ride in. No wind, cool, and no blinding sun. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Gordon » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:01 pm

Time for a new thread? The heatwave pattern has indeed broken down and we seem to be looking at a much more agreeable week ahead temp-wise (at least for those of us who dislike heat!) with a couple of half-decent cold fronts too.

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by neil275 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:25 pm

A few storms along the Murray today. Hail reported in Katunga. 5 mm in Cobram with more to come I think.

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Horts » Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:30 pm

Sean wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:27 pm
Nothing is more frustrating than storms for us at sea level. For those up higher, it may be the elusive snow, but at sea level, the ONLY fun weather in this city is a good thunderstorm. And unfortunately, they're unpredictable by nature. Take that cell yesterday, for instance, a big black core headed straight for Lara, yet it totally collapsed in one or two frames on the radar - I thought it would cross the bay. But nope.
Amen. Living on the coast on the Mornington Peninsula side, this summer has been especially frustrating. The bay seems to be chewing everything up that looks half decent from coming over. Everything is so dry, gardens are stressed, walking on grass feels like walking on hay bales, that crunch with every step. Would hate to see my next water bill.

I'm a heat and storm lover, hate winter with a passion, so at least I've had the heat, but wow would I kill for some rain right now. Can't think of the last time we had a 10mm event. Wonder how the vineyards are doing?

Could be time to spend a year up north I think.

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by stevco123 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:12 pm

Anyone see this meteor that went over Melbourne a few minutes ago? People reporting it from Cranbourne to Broadmeadows
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Macedonian » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:55 am

8.9C here this morning.

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