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VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Jake Smethurst wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:16 pm Definitely an unstable day out there. Judging by both the models and obs, appears trough has slowed more than anticipated. Would suggest to me the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity will be about the western districts (as playing out now). EC particularly keen on thunderstorm activity out this way and into the southwest district as the day progresses. It is unstable enough for thunderstorms to develop further east over central parts (including Melbourne) though we'll be less reliant on forcing from the trough itself. The hotter it gets temp wise for us the better. Otherwise hopefully some shower/storm activity from the west can extend eastwards far enough as the day progresses. Eastern ranges another potential hot spot for today (given instability in that area and lifting from the ranges).
Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 060219.png
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Skywalker »

James wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:13 pm notice the media has jumped on this (as usual) warning of epic flooding etc
Well, you know what that usually means. :roll:
Wish they would just bugger off.

I'm sitting on the fence with this one. The charts to date have been impressive but I'm just not quite sure. Guess I've had way too many near misses lately with storms.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by JasmineStorm »

Nice one Jake.

Afternoon crew, nice day for an outbreak of wet microbursts. Explosive observations at the moment to the east of those current storms.

The atmospheric river currently pushing into the Mallee is a tropical water slide
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by JasmineStorm »

Moisture plumes now hitting around -65c on the tops. It's going big :)
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Gordon »

Interesting JS!

Also, I can't remember the last time storms right on the western edge of the Melbourne 256km radar were so obvious - normally the echos are much fainter than this. A function of exceptionally high cloud tops maybe? (20mm in 15mins at Longrenong)
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by StratoBendigo »

Longerenong just coped 20mm in 17 minutes. Not bad.

Perhaps we might just get the edge of this in a couple of hours time.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Mother reports thunder lightening and 4mm @ Horsham 1 ish pm
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by mick »

Moisture still streaming in from the gippy coast, but a lot higher than the last few days, temps gone up a few degrees, sun trying to come out.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Jake Smethurst »

The southern portion of the band is unfortunately sparking a few fires (rain isn't has widespread). One west of Terang has 11 appliances attending. It is extremely dry down that way, so hopefully some rain will quickly follow-up.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Gordon »

Hope the rain hits those fires soon Jake - certainly looks like it will on the radar.

Meanwhile, BOM just posted this on Twitter:

'A significant band of thunderstorms is moving eastwards across #Victoria, with heavy rainfall observed at several locations. These storms could impact #Melbourne, most likely between 6 and 9pm this evening. Keep an eye on the radar! http://ow.ly/rXX350kIqjt'
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by JasmineStorm »

Based on the radar echoes and water vapours images, it seems like the trough is starting to show a negative tilt. Winds at 700 hPa are also around 40 to 50 knots to maintain the cells.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Adam38 »

STW has been extended east again.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by StratoBendigo »

Seems to be some rapid development not that far West of here. 35c here with a DP of 14c. Hotter than forecast.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Yep, some more local convective development ahead of the main band currently. Still touch and go as to whether Melbourne region will see local development, or if we'll have to rely on the band later (EC this morning had this decaying as it reached central parts though :| ).

Amazing looking satellite picture though ... the tops of these storms extending eastwards in dramatic fashion! My dad on the farm in the southwest can hear the thunder and see the lightning, says the power has been off at least eight times in the last hour or so ... doesn't look promising for power! Radar showing they're just on the edge of the main band (NE of Port Campbell), will be interesting to see how much they get.

EDIT: Yep, they've got a few power problems down their way!
https://www.powercor.com.au/outages/outage-map/
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Chritc »

Agin my 2 cents worth..... Get ready Central and North Central. Storms extending further north and south along the trough than forecast. As i mentioned earlier 6-9pm is the key window for Melbourne.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by stevco123 »

Looks like it'll make it to Melbourne some time about midnight, but in a dissipating fashion.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Adam38 »

New STW out and now includes Melbourne metro.
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Timster »

Chritc wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:53 pm Agin my 2 cents worth..... Get ready Central and North Central. Storms extending further north and south along the trough than forecast. As i mentioned earlier 6-9pm is the key window for Melbourne.
Long time no posts, but for once I am home (in the country) when we look like getting some weather :-)
Wind is just picking up and the sky is darkening. Rumbles happeneing, and the radar looks like we might get some decent rain.
Yay!
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by StratoBendigo »

Reports coming in of significant flash flooding in Ararat. Rail line is underwater apparently.
https://www.araratadvertiser.com.au/sto ... orm-photos
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Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Post by Chritc »

Storms blowing up ahead of the main rainband now!!!
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