The Australian Weather Forum

Ok, I will post this in the correct thread..

I think the cells are still moving ESE, but it appears ENE as they decay in the Melbourne death zone and shrink back towards the range. It's getting over the range in Gippsland and poking over in Western areas - just not Melbourne currently.

so why is it decaying in the melb area? why does the bom yet again put a severe storm warning out for this area when this is happening?

BoM is really frustrating with their forecast, placing a uniform 70% chance of rain with severe storms.

Let me tell you with the current southerly blowing, the chance of rain or storms is well near 0%.

Unless there's something they know that we can't see.

stevco123 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:46 pm BoM is really frustrating with their forecast, placing a uniform 70% chance of rain with severe storms.

Let me tell you with the current southerly blowing, the chance of rain or storms is well near 0%.

Unless there's something they know that we can't see.

The trough / convergance line is slowly moving South At 8am it was north of me in Wallan in a light SE breeze. Now wind here is northerly.

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:38 pm Nothing in it here. All high based cloud and just a light shower of rain.

Next.

I note Bendigo is having their 3rd band of storms in the last 3 hours, and has 10x as much rain as we had here

The wind has swung around to a northerly here, booming
thunder here again too.

HarleyB wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:06 pm

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:38 pm Nothing in it here. All high based cloud and just a light shower of rain.

Next.

I note Bendigo is having their 3rd band of storms in the last 3 hours, and has 10x as much rain as we had here

It's got more active since 3pm.
Only 8mm here compared to Airport AWS which has had 13mm. We've had some extremely close lightning though.

The cell up near Deniliquin looks nasty, potential hook echo?

nafets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:51 pm The cell up near Deniliquin looks nasty, potential hook echo?

Looks like a very large 'flying eagle' (v-notch) echo on the Yarrawonga radar. In the U.S, those type of echoes produce EF2 and EF3 tornadoes

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:54 pm

nafets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:51 pm The cell up near Deniliquin looks nasty, potential hook echo?

Looks like a very large 'flying eagle' (v-notch) echo on the Yarrawonga radar. In the U.S, those type of echoes produce EF2 and EF3 tornadoes

If not tornadoes, then some pretty nasty downdrafts at least....

Sitting on 28mm for the day - about 20mm more than I thought i'd get. New batch of multicell clusters now firing to the west of here.

Storms have mostly gone to the north or south here today.
But still managed 7mm, looks like the next lot going to just slide to the south.

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 6:59 pm Sitting on 28mm for the day - about 20mm more than I thought i'd get.

4mm here lol - shows the nature of convective setups! Not complaining though, got awesome sound of 2 flangs - full dynamics

Great result in Kyneton. A further 2.6mm this afternoon with a couple of brief heavy bursts and occasional thunder. We’ve been on the edge of the east-moving storms. New lot approaching now, but again looks like they will scrape just to our north. It’s definitely damp though, with murky, cloudy weather all day and fog this morning. Currently 15.6c and DP of 15c.

I’m disappointed at missing most of the action today but tonight’s sunset has made up for that!! Just spectacular!!

stevco123 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:46 pm BoM is really frustrating with their forecast, placing a uniform 70% chance of rain with severe storms.

Let me tell you with the current southerly blowing, the chance of rain or storms is well near 0%.

Unless there's something they know that we can't see.

Yep, very lazy forecasting effort by the BOM. Absolutely no chance of anything happening here today either.

Another day of watering coming up.

What a day ! Storm after storm, about 5 in total. 22mm in the gauge. Made up for lack of storm action this year.

Cracking 0.2mm in Ferny Creek yesterday. Always looked marginal for us, so not really surprised. Progs always had a tight gradient from 20mm plus to 0mm across central Vic, so almost nothing in it Good to see those falls in north central. I flew in through the band and looked amazing. Couple of try hard photos below (just iPad).

Thick fog this morning and still humid.

Geez Progs to impressive for the week ahead. Plenty of 50-150mm falls. Whole state looks like getting at least 25mm. Details will matter a lot, but pretty hopeful of getting 50-100mm here.

Near Ballarat heading south.


Just south of Macedon. Went form torrential snow and rain out the window to nothing in a couple of kms.

Ended up with 14.5mm, a bit disappointing, seemed like it should have been more.
Oh well, there should be plenty more later in the week.

20mm here in the end. Way beyond expectations.