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VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Gordon »

Speaking of ensembles HB, how do rate WATL?
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

hillybilly wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:04 am
Didjman wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:53 am Trough line appears to be not far nth of here. Might go for a drive this arvo. Quite a few sparks showing on live tracker.
A humid foggy morning in Ferny Creek.
Fog has only just lifted here. Temp 14.8/14
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Edit: Thanks HB, that post helps explain it. Good to see you're still 'on call' from the other side of the world :).
37,000 feet above the Indian Ocean :) gotta love modern technology ;)
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by JasmineStorm »

Total Totals are going to well over 50 dipping into southern areas this afternoon. Certainly plenty of sparks north and NW of here. Moisture isn’t that great at mid levels but there is good pockets this afternoon. Fingers crossed ;)

Just put something in for the next monster :) http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 41#p107624
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by JasmineStorm »

Dark and rumbling, closing in...
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by HarleyB »

We have lightning and rain here!! Feels like it's been a long time coming. This has been the best spring/summer of storms in about 7-8 years I reckon.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

faint rumbles here now
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by JasmineStorm »

22mm in the first cluster which exploded, had a 5 min period of a rainfall rate 100mm/h +

Big moisture plumes going up to the NW as well on the latest water vapour image.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by HarleyB »

that cell near Watsonia looks like it's exploding as we speak, lightning tracker is picking up sparks suddenly.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by HarleyB »

That lightning tracker is one of, if not, the best tool that I've ever seen posted here. It's lighting up like a christmas tree from Keith in SA right through to here.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by StratoBendigo »

Nothing in it here. All high based cloud and just a light shower of rain.

Next.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

Got an awesome sound recording. One cracker distorted my hearing aids!!
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

Scud is moving south here, while the cell appears to be moving to ENE
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

Multiple strikes in Mt Disappointment State Forest - not good
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

HarleyB wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:22 pm That lightning tracker is one of, if not, the best tool that I've ever seen posted here. It's lighting up like a christmas tree from Keith in SA right through to here.
Sure is!!
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 »

A few cells are popping up around Ballarat now, also watching that storm moving E-SE from Ararat.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by JasmineStorm »

Water vapour detecting at around -65c NW and west of Ballarat. That cell needs to be closely watched.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Gordon wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:11 am Speaking of ensembles HB, how do rate WATL?
Very good. It’s an optimal combination of most available weather models. But, you need to look at the range and the probability of exceedance products.

It’s pretty easy to show mathematically that if your ensemble is reliable (captures the true spread) then you can’t beat its mid point (or more precisely the mode or highest probability outcome) and your forecasts error will equal the spread of the ensemble. If you look at the current guidance the mid point rainfall for Ferny Creek and the spread of the ensembles for the week ahead is about 50mm and about 20mm (this is the standard deviation). That tells me there’s about a 95% chance the final number will be between 10mm and 90mm or 2 standard deviations and about a 68% probability that the rain will land between 30 and 70mm. These are not precise, but should be pretty close. The WATL has a probability of exceedance forecast which basically does this for you. I’d be happy with something in the 30 to 70mm range, and anything above that is a bonus :D

One thing this tells you this that you can’t on average beat the spread unless you know how it is wrong. That’s a very tough mathematical problem. You can do this a in your head if there’s a consistent pattern of model failing - for example in the models don’t capture drizzle as the mountains in the models are smoothed and will look like 100-200m size hills, rather than and sharp 400-600m wall.

When I see large spread I shrug my shoulders and accept that’s quite simply that the situation is so chaotic and that is the limit with current computers and observations, but you know that each model run you get closer the narrower the spread. That wiggle watching and never quite knowing is what makes the weather so interesting :D
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Gordon »

Thanks, handy info.

Just scored a few mm from a weakening storm - our first direct hit in this sequence.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 »

Just a few drops here but did have some long and loud booming thunder!!
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