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VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Warm to hot one in the Dandenongs. Scored 0.4mm overnight.

Looks like a bit of convection under clearer skies west of Geelong. GFS wants to build showers in that area next few hours, so might be some interest or not :?:

Progs going big for later in the week. EC has local falls topping 200mm in the single run, and over 100mm in the ensemble. Other models (UK, GFS2/3) look pretty similar. Potential to be a big event :D Seems like this year might follow 1994 is breaking down the IOD/weak El Niño dry pattern early over Vic. Guess we will find out ;) EC scenario for the TC/EX-TC is remarkable.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

Strikes around Ballarat
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 »

Nice dark sky to my w-nw!!
A few falls of 5-15mm being recorded in Ballarat’s southern suburbs.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 »

Severe TS warning out now for central area.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by nafets »

Seems like the southerly destroyed those storms, any other thoughts?
Go the bombersss!
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Adam38 »

I got a couple of rumbles before it disintegrated as it approached.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Decent band of showers out west now. Should edge northeast, but whole set up is subtle so may not ;)

EC upgraded a bit for tomorrow so more like GFS now.

Next week looks big. Progs variously throwing up 100mm plus falls :D Be great start to summer if that happens.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Storms have just popped up and are inbound for Melbourne. What an odd (and unpredictable) system this one is :) .

PS I'm at Abu Dhabi airport waiting for a flight, not suffering insomnia :D

Models updates for later in the week are showing no reduction in totals :o
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Looking at models, tomorrow's quite interesting. The trough stall, and aloft a strong jet max moves to be just west of us by the middle of the day. This will put much of Vic under good upper divergence, tending to focus near central Vic. That's where tomorrows shower/storms come from.

Question is does the moisture and upper divergence coincide, and exactly where. Current GFS has got very keen and produces moderate to heavy falls. My confidence with these systems isn't high, as they can make or break with fairly small changes in the details. The other models are spraying in different directions. EC is similar to GFS but patchy, so 2mm falls sit alongside 20mm falls with not a lot of structure.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Long rolling distant thunder, or not loud if it's close, or high up.
Raining now.. and it's getting closer..
Actually. Bucketing down
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Quick 1.5mm at home in FC. Area near Glen Waverley showing locally 2-5mm, which scored the best of that lot. Few sparks on the lightning tracker.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by StratoBendigo »

EC scales it back to a more realistic 1mm for us later today. And also a more realistic 45mm later this week.

I'm sure the downgrades will continue...
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by snowfall »

Nice to have some cooler weather finally. Currently 12c here. An isolated line of showers passed through the Macedon Ranges area this morning - 3mm in the gauge here from that and the bit of rain overnight.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

1.5mm here since midnight. 14/14 with fog - not surprisingly!
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Tassiedave »

How are people seeing this big LOW which is projected to form over Victoria and Tasmania Thursday/Friday/Saturday? What needs to fall into place for it to happen? Is it connected to TC Owen remnants?
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by StratoBendigo »

Tassiedave wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:19 am How are people seeing this big LOW which is projected to form over Victoria and Tasmania Thursday/Friday/Saturday? What needs to fall into place for it to happen? Is it connected to TC Owen remnants?
It'll be a cutoff low. You could get 5mm or 100mm. Roll a dice.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Didjman »

Trough line appears to be not far nth of here. Might go for a drive this arvo. Quite a few sparks showing on live tracker.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

Didjman wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:53 am Trough line appears to be not far nth of here. Might go for a drive this arvo. Quite a few sparks showing on live tracker.
There’s is an east to west area of convergence running not far from the Great Dividing Range. Would anticipate that to be the focus in the coming hours. Wouldn’t be surprised to see locally heavy falls. With nwly steering it should push south. A humid foggy morning in Ferny Creek.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by Gordon »

All the 'apps' - Weatherzone, The Weather Channel etc, are convinced we're in for big totals starting in the next hour or two, and yet it's totally 'unstormy' (is that a word :)?) here now with 13C and fog. The radar also has everything well north of here.

I don't place great faith in these apps from a distance, but only an hour or two away with supposedly 90-100% likelihood? Must be based on sun breaking through.


Edit: Thanks HB, that post helps explain it. Good to see you're still 'on call' from the other side of the world :).
Last edited by Gordon on Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VIC: Early Summer Blast of Heat, and storms - Dec 6-10

Post by hillybilly »

StratoBendigo wrote: Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:28 am EC scales it back to a more realistic 1mm for us later today. And also a more realistic 45mm later this week.

I'm sure the downgrades will continue...
I would not read too much Into one model or your local spot forecast. If you look at the overall pattern it looks excellent. Across the models it’s generally 25-100mm. Where gets the peak seems to be quite random, so the fine details are still highly uncertain. Is worth browsing the ensembles which give you a detailed breakdown of the uncertainty.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/vi ... 1200z.html
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