Victoria: Low & Cold Front - 20-24 November 2018

[StratoBendigo]

Event total now 22mm. Today salvaged it.

Not sure there's a whole lot more tonight North of the divide. Who knows? Maybe another wrap-around?

[jimmyay]

Looking at BOM radar, haven’t seen a big thick windy rainy front come up from the south like that for a very long time.

[nafets]

Areas of flooding may develop during Friday into Saturday in the Upper Yarra, Bunyip, Dandenong and Latrobe catchments.

A low-pressure system is developing to the east of Tasmania on Thursday and move away during Friday.

Catchments are wet as a result of the recent rain.

Widespread rainfall totals of 20 to 40 mm and higher localised totals of up to around 60 mm are forecast for the flood watch area from late Thursday into Friday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV35010.html

[stevco123]

For me locally it's still a non-event. Very light rain despite it looking quite good and extensive before it came in.

I will be watching the positioning of that low closely, but at this stage it's not that exciting (once again, locally)

[Sean]

For me locally it's still a non-event. Very light rain despite it looking quite good and extensive before it came in.

I will be watching the positioning of that low closely, but at this stage it's not that exciting (once again, locally)

Sure doesn't seem particularly special atm. That band barely dropped a mil here.

[stevco123]

Yes Sean, 100% agree. To the point where the road is barely wet.

The whole system is just too far east. How many fails and very near misses before get a good low pressure system.

[Wilko]

Moderate to Heavy here
4mm and counting

[James]

"marj - the rains are here"

(wasnt that from an old tv commercial?)

[Wilko]

Wind has gone ballistic here
Rain going sideways

[Skywalker]

Event all over here. Once again we missed out on the heavier thundery stuff earlier, it all went west & north of here.

[hillybilly]

Wild, windy, foggy rainy night here. Rapidly closing in on another 30mm and coming down in sheets (gauge says rain rate of 10mm/hr of sideways rain ). Event is now on 90mm and MTD about 160mm

Going to be a feral day as that low sits anchored near eastern Bass Strait. There’s a strong trough in the southerlies just to our south with strong warm air advection over us. The low levels are saturated to about 15,000 feet so while it doesn’t look spectacular on the satellite we’ve got a very efficient rain producer in the low levels. Latest GFS has rain more or less non stop for another 36 hours through Melbourne eastern burbs and Yarra Ranges. Would not be surprised at this point if we got another 50-100mm, but tiny tweaks can make big differences, so likely to land somewhere in the 20-120mm rain. Apparently there was a very similar set up in December 1991 which dropped 240mm in 48 hours here, which shows how these can crank out the rain if they get going Would think flooding will start with another 20-50mm here. Would probably need another widespread 50-100mm for it to become significant.

Winds in Bass Strait look to be Storm to Hurricane Force atm. These will put quite a storm surge onto the Gippsland Coast. Be interesting to see if we hear any reports of damage through the day in Lake Entrance and 90 Mile Beach.

[stevco123]

1mm since midnight. Was definitely expecting a lot more.

Oh well you win some, you lose some

[Hawker]

I recorded another 10.5 to go with the first 8, not too bad.
Could have been more, but nice anyway.
Looks like your are in for a long wet day HB, so sad Oh well enjoy.

[stevco123]

I can even see patches of blue sky, whilst to my north it is as black as night. Unbelievable how much only 5 or 10 kilometres make a huge difference

[hillybilly]

Had another 8mm in the last 90 minutes. About to crack the ton.

Radar is looking more impressive than it did earlier. If this keeps up will be mighty wet by tomorrow morning

[Macedonian]

Sounds amazing HB.
Ive had 40mm all up and another 3.8C minimum, same as yeaterday.

[stevco123]

Had another 8mm in the last 90 minutes. About to crack the ton.

Radar is looking more impressive than it did earlier. If this keeps up will be mighty wet by tomorrow morning

Is it likely to spread down this way, or are we doomed to be right on the edge of it the whole day?

[flyfisher]

It does not look aligned very well for Cranbourne with the peninsula land strip directly to your SW, including Mt Martha. It also quite orographic lifting nicely over the Dandenongs which is intensifying the rain here. Bayside is on 10mm, while Ferny creek is on 42mm.

The fire season well and truly pushed back to January now - which is great news. Also, the semi-drought conditions we could now say is broken in this area with more rain on the way next week. Trees will love this, hopefully, many will be saved by these multiple rain events we are now getting.

[stevco123]

It does not look aligned very well for Cranbourne with the peninsula land strip directly to your SW, including Mt Martha. It also quite orographic lifting nicely over the Dandenongs which is intensifying the rain here. Bayside is on 10mm, while Ferny creek is on 42mm.

The fire season well and truly pushed back to January now - which is great news. Also, the semi-drought conditions we could now say is broken in this area with more rain on the way next week. Trees will love this, hopefully, many will be saved by these multiple rain events we are now getting.

Yeah that's what I thought. This has happened a few times

Hopefully the direction slightly shifts more southerly, as a Westernport setup usually benefits us

[Dane]

As Stevco mentioned not much action here in the last 24 hours.
Just 4.1mm's in the 24 hours to 9am making the system total 55mm's
and the MTD 103.6mm's.