Wild, windy, foggy rainy night here. Rapidly closing in on another 30mm and coming down in sheets (gauge says rain rate of 10mm/hr of sideways rain
). Event is now on 90mm and MTD about 160mm
Going to be a feral day as that low sits anchored near eastern Bass Strait. There’s a strong trough in the southerlies just to our south with strong warm air advection over us. The low levels are saturated to about 15,000 feet so while it doesn’t look spectacular on the satellite we’ve got a very efficient rain producer in the low levels. Latest GFS has rain more or less non stop for another 36 hours through Melbourne eastern burbs and Yarra Ranges. Would not be surprised at this point if we got another 50-100mm, but tiny tweaks can make big differences, so likely to land somewhere in the 20-120mm rain. Apparently there was a very similar set up in December 1991 which dropped 240mm in 48 hours here, which shows how these can crank out the rain if they get going
Would think flooding will start with another 20-50mm here. Would probably need another widespread 50-100mm for it to become significant.
Winds in Bass Strait look to be Storm to Hurricane Force atm. These will put quite a storm surge onto the Gippsland Coast. Be interesting to see if we hear any reports of damage through the day in Lake Entrance and 90 Mile Beach.