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VIC: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 20 2018

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hillybilly
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by hillybilly »

Sat on 14mm here for the event. Did ok yesterday, with a heavier band running along the front face of the Dandenongs from around Montrose to here. Bit patchy overall with some middle burbs cracking 15-20mm which others only made it to 10mm. Good drink for the garden, but won’t last long without followup.

A showery quite unstable 36 hours coming up. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20mm plus here, but everything is slow moving and training so a slight tweak in the trajectory and you can go from 2 to 20mm. We usually do well here in unstable moist nwly flow. More focussed in the southern half of Vic. Should be rumbles around this arvo, but looks more of the embedded type with lots of murk.

Saturday’s front looks like also packing some decent showers, which thicken as they move east. Might deliver a further 5-10mm.

PS could well crack 30C in Melbourne Monday, spike day coming up with a squally northerly.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Yesterday morning, this is what models suggested on the 12z run for Kyneton. Access C 15mm, EC 10mm, CMC 7mm, GFS 6mm, UKM 5mm, Access R 2mm and I got 31mm. Whilst models are great these days in picking up the synoptic scale systems, they still throw up rubbish on a mesoscale level and even at the eleventh hour. Access C with it's higher resolution is a clear leader for Victoria within 24 hours but still struggles IMO.


Today looks interesting. Already a small squeeze zone appearing through central areas trailing down through eastern parts of Melbourne … and not 1 model from 12z run has it appearing :) The main action down south will be this afternoon, especially if the sun comes out
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hillybilly
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by hillybilly »

Tough situation for the models yesterday and today. The atmosphere is moist and unstable, but where it fires is all up to the mesoscale. Also, had two upper circulation in play, one near Mt Gambier the other in western NSW. Between 0Z and 12Z, EC completely flipped from the focus of the rain being east of Melbourne to west of Melbourne, while nature threw up some for both and a gap inbetween :?

Yesterdays storms appeared to propogate east out of the synoptic convergence zone. I'd guess the outflow interacting with the northeasterly triggered a new convergence zone which propogated into north-central and central areas. For a while this became dominant, then the synoptic convergence zone fired again.

BTW a couple of items that slipped under the radar. Yesterday's sounding at Melbourne had the third highest precipitable water value on record for October. The only higher ones (two) are in 2017 (so the top three have all occurred in the last "year"). Also Melbourne's two nights above 19C is a first for October.

Currently teaming rain in the Dandenongs again from that mini band. Would be nice if it could sit over us all day ;) 2.4mm in the last ~15 minutes, to event about 16mm or thereabouts.

EDIT> now up to 7mm for this morning and still coming down fast. Just gone past 20mm for the event.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Macedonian »

hillybilly wrote: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:08 pm
27mm in my gauge, a lovely rainy spring day. Very happy.
You’re on track to be the one spot in Vic to get above average this month (though hopefully we all get there). Lucky for your area :D your MTD must be near 80mm now :?:

On 14mm here now. In a hole, but so much going on with the radar so could start again any moment.

Those storms around west of Ballarat are dumpers. A private weather station under the band near the western highway has clocked a quick 10mm.
65mm mtd HB.
Doing quite well but we def need it and more would be good. I was digging yesterday in a garden bed that has had irrigation lately as well and it was dry 2cm down.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Very welcome rain rate at present,
No more dust here..
Garden will be so thankful,
I'm thankful to wet those hills also...
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Gordon »

Our turn to miss out - that band passing through eastern Melbourne dropped 14mm on Ballarat, then died over us for 1mm, then re-formed!

Story of the last 48 hours for us - 6mm in total :(.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by hillybilly »

13mm from that mini band in Ferny Creek. Still dribbling so might squeeze out a mm or two more. Rockets our event up to ~27mm so respectable, and thinking another 10-20mm more likely the next 24 hours (we need 60mm more to our monthly average :? ). This is probably our best event since way back in August, which shows its been very lean.

I suspect the showers this morning were on the convergence band that sat over Ballarat last night finally moving through us.

A photo and radar image below for safe keeping :D

Looking east as the band moved over us.
Image

The radar image showing the best of it.
Image
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by StratoBendigo »

17mm all up for us. Nearly all of that fell in the space of 15 minutes.

Cloudy and overcast atm. Perhaps another 5mm over the coming days.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Dane »

16mm's up to 9am today, event total is 17mm's.
Hopeing for some more later today
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Wilko »

Nice to see the Sun
Super Humid Dp 14.5
Has that feeling of Kaboom
Working at Frankston today and will take the Camera
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by mick »

For those at home, Ch7 is about to show some chopper shots of a storm about to hit Dubbo.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by James »

again..where is all the lightning? too early?
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by JasmineStorm »

James wrote: Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:24 pm again..where is all the lightning? too early?
regarding lightning - A key ingredient for lightning is the temperature and dewpoint at 850 hPa compared to the temp at 500 hPa. This calculation method is known as total totals. The higher the 850 hPa dewpoint and temperature and the lower the 500 hPa temperature, the greater the instability and the resulting TT value. For lightning, anything above 50 is a good chance if cells develop. The latest weather balloon info from the BoM for Melbourne this morning has a reading of 49, so it's borderline but still a chance.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by stevco123 »

Here we go...first development in nd around Melbourne. Minor, but it is something
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by StratoBendigo »

And it's raining again. At the exact same time that it rained yesterday - school pickup time :?
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by James »

seem to be developing too far south today
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Skywalker »

Yawn, nothing happening here.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by stevco123 »

James wrote: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:44 pm seem to be developing too far south today
Depends where you live I suppose :) Not too far south everyone. Those in Wonthaggi wouldn't be saying that
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by Onetahuti »

Happy to pick up 2.2mm more earlier this afternoon in a short shower, now standing @ 18.6mm.
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Re: Warm sunny start, then a NE flow and upper trough Oct 11 - 18

Post by mick »

4mm.

Interesting there is a sausage of low pressure cloud from lakes entrance to traralgon, very low very fast being sucked into the rain about to hit Sale.
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