Tough situation for the models yesterday and today. The atmosphere is moist and unstable, but where it fires is all up to the mesoscale. Also, had two upper circulation in play, one near Mt Gambier the other in western NSW. Between 0Z and 12Z, EC completely flipped from the focus of the rain being east of Melbourne to west of Melbourne, while nature threw up some for both and a gap inbetween
Yesterdays storms appeared to propogate east out of the synoptic convergence zone. I'd guess the outflow interacting with the northeasterly triggered a new convergence zone which propogated into north-central and central areas. For a while this became dominant, then the synoptic convergence zone fired again.
BTW a couple of items that slipped under the radar. Yesterday's sounding at Melbourne had the third highest precipitable water value on record for October. The only higher ones (two) are in 2017 (so the top three have all occurred in the last "year"). Also Melbourne's two nights above 19C is a first for October.
Currently teaming rain in the Dandenongs again from that mini band. Would be nice if it could sit over us all day
2.4mm in the last ~15 minutes, to event about 16mm or thereabouts.
EDIT> now up to 7mm for this morning and still coming down fast. Just gone past 20mm for the event.