Victoria: Mid Spring - Lows and Highs - Oct 3-11 2018

[Tassiedave]

Am I reading it right that the models have jumped right off next week's event?

[StratoBendigo]

Am I reading it right that the models have jumped right off next week's event?

Not EC. It has 50mm here for the next 9 days (14mm this Tuesday and 36mm the following Sunday-Monday!)

[Gordon]

Very hard to keep track of, big changes in forecast rainfall with every run of Water & Land.

[Didjman]

Well the models might be struggling, but the local ants are building mounds! What I like to see

[Jake Smethurst]

A bit unstable tomorrow across parts of the state. Isolated showers and thunderstorms looking likely across the southwest. Majority of the Southwest district and parts of the Wimmera and Central districts are at risk for some development. Moisture looks okay, so with enough heating some thundery activity might get going. Would watch for heavy rain rates mostly, if they develop. Other severe phenomena unlikely.

[JasmineStorm]

EC was the first to pick the strength of the high pressure ridge which will send that significant upper low more east, spawning a cyclonic Tasman gyre to launch an attack on NZ. That’s leaves the surface trough developing in S.A today, moving west. Access G and CMC are quite bullish for widespread good falls for Tuesday but others aren’t as keen and are more localised in Western Vic and the Mallee. Still hard to pick….

A week’s time keeps lining up with the big models showing a S.A, VIC, NSW and southern QLD rain event. The weather pattern is certainly changing with more tropical moisture involved

[Adam38]

I made the mistake of going up to Ballarat in shorts and a T-shirt... it was wet and cold, my google home said rain
but the BOM said it was fine.

[snowfall]

I made the mistake of going up to Ballarat in shorts and a T-shirt... it was wet and cold, my google home said rain
but the BOM said it was fine.

Yes, the BOM got it wrong in their forecast for that area today. That band of light rain is inching east, but would appear to be slowly dying out. Sunny here this morning, but mostly cloudy now. A very pleasant 20c outside though and barely a breeze.

[Jake Smethurst]

A couple of thundery showers thus far in the southwest, so instability about. Been a pretty wonderful day here bayside today, mostly sunny this morning but the cloud has been whisking over as the afternoon progresses. Lovely conditions!

[StratoBendigo]

A warm 26c this afternoon. Slightly cooler and cloudy now.

GFS (among others) has downgraded Tuesday to just a few mm. Still very bullish for this time next week (ie 50mm). Expecting a downgrade for that too.

[hillybilly]

Warm one here today with a max of 21C. Gave the pool a clean in anticipation of being able to swim soon. Temperature is already up to 20C in the pool so bit of kick in the sun now. It’s about the driest I’ve seen it here in October so starting to get desperate for rain Grass is already start to brown in the foot hills, so fire season on a couple of weeks away without substantial rain.

Not expecting much here this week. Decent event for the far west, but systems slides south and the upslide falls apart. Hopefully models have this wrong, and the systems holds it together, but that would be a long shot. Could see locally 20-40mm near the border, but fades from about Horsham east.

Something brewing for the weekend ahead, but again not included to get excited give the models recent performance.

[hillybilly]

Progs not much changed. Showers late today near the border, with an area of rain and storms in the west into tomorrow. All fades as it moves east, though anticipate some further showers out east. Central areas are on the edge, so if it all happens 100km different we will get a bit (otherwise dribbles).

System brewing for later in the week. Upper trough from this system doesn't really clear out, so the weekend coming is somewhat the same situation. Progs have some big rain totals, but seen that before (EC had ~50mm for central areas tomorrow a week back ). It doesn't look like a classical spring system so never quite trust the model details until the day or two before.

Warm one today. Going to get close to 30C in a warmer spots.

[StratoBendigo]

Still looks ok for tomorrow. 10mm a good possibility.

Next week is a total lottery. Anything from 5 to 50mm!

Grass is turning brown here now.

[JasmineStorm]

Currently large temperature differences between 850 and 500 hPa west of Melbourne atm. Sky is bubbling away to the south of here.

[StratoBendigo]

Even 24 hours out the forecast models are spitting out everything from 5 to 15mm for us tomorrow...

I suspect that SW Vic might be where most of the action will be.

[JasmineStorm]

That cell around the Otway's had plenty of sparks over the last hour. A few cells now popping up over the Macedon Ranges south of here. Getting darker and might get a spark soon.

[occluded]

Just back from two weeks in Pambula, South Coast NSW where it was dry and mild, apart from Thursday last week with about 10mm of rain, hardly got warmer than 20 the entire time and very cool in the evenings - glad I took the warm clothes.

Returned home to find the front lawn browning off already and a top of 28 degrees. Not expecting much if anything from this approaching band.

[Adam38]

The smell of summer rain...I love it!! The sky has that thundery look to it.

[hillybilly]

Radar and sky look reasonably hopeful, but progs have it all fading at a line running from about Geelong to Bendigo. Solid falls to the west of that line, dribbles to the east. Decent thundery shower bubbling up currently near Melbourne's eastern burbs, but steering will push it north which isn't good for sustaining storms.

Expect showers post the front late tomorrow, which could add up around the north-central ranges and far east.

[snowfall]

Spitting here at the moment. The sky has been looking stormy this afternoon, but I haven’t heard any thunder.