Victoria: Mid Spring - Lows and Highs - Oct 3-11 2018

[Wilko]

Sky to NW looks threatening from here

[Wilko]

I think it’s dying

[nafets]

Just had some unexpectedly heavy rain NW of the city! Tropical feel with large drops smashing down. Slow moving - still raining but the heavy core moving south. Probably 3+mm in this short time.

[Jake Smethurst]

Yeah a nice heavy downpour just now in the city, very tropical feeling. Instability definitely popping about.

[Wilko]

Massive crack of thunder
1 second delay

[JasmineStorm]

Good to see Melbourne getting some action. Footscray got a quick 5mm under that cell as well.

I think the bay is only around 14c ATM, so that will hinder anything that moves over water. thunderstorms don't like cold feet

Surprised the BoM didn't pick up the temp differences in the uppers over central Vic. Not even a chance of a storm in the Melbourne forecast. It's been on the models for the last 24 hours.

[Wilko]

rain has arrived
Lightning becoming very frequent

Ps pouring

[hillybilly]

Just shy of 10mm near docklands under that cell. Slipped south, but left an area of convergence over the eastern burbs. Anticipate there could be a bit more pop up. All marginal and local, but something to ponder.

Rainband thickening our west as anticipated. Couple of models hold this together (German, Canadian) but GFS and EC kill it somewhere west of Geelong. Generally, wouldn’t bet against EC, but can hope

Progs stalking the weekends system to the west so a big system that creeps glacially slow into Vic. May never get here, or deliver buckets

EDIT> hearing rumbles here. Must be about twenty five kms away.

[JasmineStorm]

Plenty of inter cloud high frequency lightning in that bayside cell, Must be a fair light show down there.

[stevco123]

Hello Spring

[Wilko]

[quote=JasmineStorm post_id=106652 time=1538990416 user_id=3388]
Plenty of inter cloud high frequency lightning in that bayside cell, Must be a fair light show down there

Sure is Jasmine
Hope to get a reading once it eases up a bit

[Australis(Shell3155)]

One real decent bolt seen to my SW, others just cc.

[StratoBendigo]

Just shy of 10mm near docklands under that cell. Slipped south, but left an area of convergence over the eastern burbs. Anticipate there could be a bit more pop up. All marginal and local, but something to ponder.

Rainband thickening our west as anticipated. Couple of models hold this together (German, Canadian) but GFS and EC kill it somewhere west of Geelong. Generally, wouldn’t bet against EC, but can hope

Progs stalking the weekends system to the west so a big system that creeps glacially slow into Vic. May never get here, or deliver buckets

EDIT> hearing rumbles here. Must be about twenty five kms away.

Yep, who knows what next week could deliver? EC keeps pushing it later into next week, but overall totals could be quite significant due to day after day of a trough sitting over us with a big tropical infeed.

[Wilko]

12mm
Certainly was not expecting that
To put things into perspective on how dry it has been
12mm is the highest since17th of June !

[hillybilly]

Band all faded as it got here, so didn't trouble the scorer. Wierd that one tiny cell has manage to run for nearly 3 hours and is still kicking along.

GFS now joins the UK, Canadian and German model in spreading rain across the whole state tomorrow. 20-30mm west, 10-25mm east and around 10mm in the middle. Perhaps we might score something after all.

It's all complicated with a low in the easterlies tending to be ripped southeast, and the upslide focus shifting north into NSW. Very slight tweaks to the pattern will make the difference between 2 and 20mm.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Sun 14th Monday 15
90% 10 20mm
Darn I'll have to mow once more before then.

[tonycynic]

Was lying back listening for the thunder but when it is bin night.....
Hoping for some rain at home, getting dry way too fast.

[StratoBendigo]

Cloudy, humid, but no real rain here yet. Most forecast models suggest just 5-10mm. It'll be a good test of how accurate they are....

As for next week, EC now says nothing until Oct 18....

[hillybilly]

Getting light to moderate rain here ATM. Enough to wet the pavement and trickle off the roof, but not much more.

Radar looks to have the whole system a bit further east than EC has been suggesting, so would tend to favour the UK, GFS, German and CMC models which have better falls across the state (10-30mm in the southwest and far east) and around 10mm inbetween. I supect southfacing slopes in central could well do ok to as the southerly comes in under the rainband. Would really like 25mm here, but suspect 5-10mm most likely.

Progs getting messy and stalling for next weekend.

[snowfall]

1.9mm yesterday and 0.3mm so far today. The rain is very light, but getting slightly heavier as I type. It's good to have a cool, rainy day, even if it's not pelting down!