Upper lows are starting to take control. Initially Victoria sits under high pressure as the ridge cradles the first upper low as it moves from S.A to NSW & Qld creating a widespread rain event in places that need it. Then it gets interesting for Vic as twin upper cold core cyclones possibly connect with strong polar upper troughs. The low level detail is yet to be consistent across the models but its look like a classic volatile change of season weather pattern for the thread
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Last edited by JasmineStorm on Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The pre-loaded Weather Channel app on my phone (which I take with a grain of salt) has suddenly announced it will snow here this Monday - it hardly ever does that.
I thought it must be a glitch until I saw the southerly fetch for Monday on the BOM 4 day charts... Might be something to it after all?
Yes, Gordon....BoM 4 day looks like the EC run from this morning. It's a brutal southerly fetch on Monday coming off that Tasman low that deepens from the NSW rain event.
The latest EC run hasn't eased off either, a ripper polar injected fetch turning West Gippsland, Otways etc...white. EC and UKmet put the low in a different spot to the rest and have it as a Tasman low... Other models are going more the East Coast low higher up. Position matters with the polar trough coming in. EC and UKM are no 1 and 2 global models so they are hard to write off.... but time will tell.
2nd decent frost in a row today. Temp now up now to 15c and feeling spring like.
Lots of looking up at the heavens for rain in NSW this weekend, initial moisture in the mid levels of the troposphere looking ok at 1pm. Water vapour has increased in the last 6 hours on the eastern side of the upper low over NSW.
Nice sunny one here today, though light southerly breeze stopped it getting too”warm”. 10.9C for a max, but did feel much warmer in the sun.
Progs show quite a decent surge of old air Sunday and Monday but not a lot of rain. EC has 850Ts dipping to around -5C on Tuesday morning which is very cold but basically fine. Would not need to tweak much for be a decent low level snow event.
Another frost here on -2c, 1st time in a month that pressure has been above 1025 hPa which shows how strong that negative SAM sequence was.
Models now aligned for Monday / Tuesday with the Tasman low further east and the polar trough clipping Tassie. End of winter system is still on track for late in the week with fairly good agreement this far out.
Not much going on locally. Mild sunny one for us yesterday with a max of 12.9C. Started foggy here this morning, and expecting a partly cloudy one. Late change, but we only get the top end of the front so not much rain in it. Some seriously cold air with this system, but not much weather. Potential for significant frost inland.
Couldn’t rule out the odd flurry here tomorrow with the 850Ts dropping to near -5C, but tending to think it is more likely to be fine and partly cloudy.
Later in the week throws up a much stronger system, though it peaks to our west so won’t be a great rain producer.
Ok... Tuesday day and Wednesday morning have my interest in particular.
No rain as others have mentioned but Tuesday night into Wednesday could be record breaking minimum temperatures.
Bom going for 1 degree in the city. My weather station is going for -1 for my area. But usually it underestimates by 2 to 3 degrees on the coldest of mornings.
Quick 3mm here from that band. Heavy for about 2 minutes. Foggy outside now, and a chilly 7C.
Nice cold uppers and big high going to make for a couple of cold nights. We still haven’t had a proper frost up here this year, so hopefully this one delivers. Frosts this year have been largely driven by the drought over inland parts with dry air with large diurnal temperatures ranges.
EC and AXS have -1c for the metro crazy cold but def think 1c looking good suburbs more like -1 and the odd neg 2
Over 2/3 of the sate below 0 Tues ad Wed night with the mounts possibly -10c mins and widespread -2 to -4c inland very cold nights and mornings coming up huge frosts
Back to wind and showers late week before another big high first week of Sept
Almost snow weather here this morning. 2.4C with the odd shower. Sounded like rice on the roof before while lying in bed, so pretty sure it was graupel A total of 3.6mm in the gauge.
Colder air is still pushing in, so wouldn’t rule out a flurry if we score a proper shower today.
EC got -3C for Wednesday morning here. That would be close to a record, but ain’t going to happen as EC struggles with the local topography here which drains all the cold always on the clear nights Tending to think about 1C or so. Should see solid frosts on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
5th frost in a row here this morning. Cold southerly today but the sun is getting warm. If temps end up as predicted this week, we'll end up with a slightly cooler and wetter than average August this year.