Victoria: Cold front sequence/cold outbreak Sunday July 29 - August 2nd

[StratoBendigo]

A cold day here - just 10.6c for a max. A good chance of 10-15mm over the next few days. It's much needed.

[flyfisher]

The forecast is depressing...

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml

Nothing but a few mm here and there and lots of drying wind. These systems with a tropical infeed would be magnificent, but alas the oceans to our north have turned off completely.

[hillybilly]

Cold one here today with a max of just 6.4C. Bit of mizzle but mainly fine. Nothing recordable.

Two fronts in the next 24 hours, but again peaking to the west and fading as they near. First early hours of tomorrow morning, then the second mid arvo. Another 10-20mm along the coast and northeast ranges, and rest of us looking to squeeze out something but suffering the lack of any tropical indeed.

This pattern just keeps rolling

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall since 9 Mon: Mt Victoria 32mm, Mt Reid 31mm, Mt Barrow 21mm, Sheffield 18mm, Launceston 13mm, Scottsdale 10mm, St Helens 2.2mm, Hobart 0mm

[hillybilly]

Another front gone missing overnight. Blew like crazy pressure dropped and not a drop of rain fell I expect dry fronts in summer, but mid winter is getting a bit stupid. More falls along the coast where places like Wilson Prom are headed for a very wet month (about decile 10). Our MTD finishes on 80mm, so 30mm below average.

Today’s looks like a repeat. Front during the arvo, but mostly rain on the coast and northeast. Progs suggest maybe 5mm here, increasing to 20mm plus 100km south of here.

[Gordon]

Another 2mm overnight so we finish the month on 81mm, right on average. (Ballarat will be just above their average at 68.8mm; expect the trend for the whole district will be average to a bit above average for July.)

We are running 37mm behind our average for ytd, though the last three 'run-off' months have been good: 250.5mm vs 218.5mm average; hence decent stream flows and rising lakes.

[Macedonian]

Ended up with 80mm for July at work in Macedon, thats about 10mm below average but a shed load better than June. Havent added it up for the month at home yet.
4.2C at home for yesterday's max. Was pretty darn cold with the breeze.

[hillybilly]

Blustery winters day in the Dandenongs. Waiting on the front which is just passing Mt Gambier.

Btw July rainfall updated. Here’s the last six months (OMG).... clearly shows the slipping south pattern

[Gordon]

The last 3 months show some improvement for significant areas of Vic - you can see our 'above average' area that I referred to a few posts back and also the above average falls in the south-west. So far this quarter of Vic has contradicted the outlooks - hope it continues.




Certainly grim in NSW though.

[tonycynic]

Nice band of showers about to cross the bay, just in time for the drive home.

[hillybilly]

The last 3 months show some improvement for significant areas of Vic - you can see our 'above average' area that I referred to a few posts back and also the above average falls in the south-west. So far this quarter of Vic has contradicted the outlooks - hope it continues.

Not so sure Gordon. The area of red is about twice the area of blue. Rainfall is accumulative so if you are in red you are slipping further behind.

It does highlight the slipping south which has been on repeat the last three months. Vic is still mostly escaping the worst - NSW on plenty of measures is running close to "record low"

Fingers crossed for some surprises in the progs

[StratoBendigo]

We've had several convective showers of rain this afternoon. Temp bouncing between 13c and 9c with each passing shower. Quite an unstable airmass over us today.

[flyfisher]

Look at that baby shrink as it moves into the bay area. Maybe that sort of second band will make it?

[Gordon]

A quick 7mm with that lot to get August off to a start. Very heavy rain for a few minutes.

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall in July for Tasmania: Mt Read 653mm, Warra 353mm, Strahan 292mm, Sheffield 215mm, Scottsdale 192mm, Wynyard 184mm, Launceston 123mm, Devonport 104mm St Helens 51mm, Hobart 55mm, Friendly Beaches 24mm. Mt Read and Friendly Beaches are 200km apart as the crow flies.

[Dane]

Finished the month with 87.7mm's - Ave is 72.5mm's so above average in contrast to much of Melbourne which was below average.
BOM Cranbourne had 101mm's.
Temps were above average - Ave max here was 14.4c - Mean is 13.7c
Ave Min here was 7.7c - Mean is 6.9c.
It felt a lot colder due to the strong winds this month.
Got a feeling August will be windy as well. Looks pretty cold Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

[Didjman]

Got good drop at tulla, but at work. Aws says 2.6mm. Reckon was more than that 4klms south

[hillybilly]

Short lived but really pelted for a few minutes. A quick 4mm. Still raining so might squeeze out a mm or more. Bit of a bow went through the northeast burbs so anticipate some nasty gusts

Temp dropped back to 7C with fog and gusty winds

[Gordon]

Rainfall in July for Tasmania: Mt Read 653mm, Warra 353mm, Strahan 292mm, Sheffield 215mm, Scottsdale 192mm, Wynyard 184mm, Launceston 123mm, Devonport 104mm St Helens 51mm, Hobart 55mm, Friendly Beaches 24mm. Mt Read and Friendly Beaches are 200km apart as the crow flies.

Astonishing numbers for Mt Read in particular Tassiedave! Hydro Tasmania will be happy.

[snowfall]

Interesting to see the massive areas of rainfall deficits on those maps. It’s a huge shame given that we had spent many months in a (weak) La Niña and now potentially heading into an El Niño and positive IOD. Doesn’t bode well for NSW in particular. In some ways, we’ve been lucky in southern Vic, just scraping by with some areas still getting average or slightly above average rain, with the west generally faring better than the east. This spring will be critical though.

We had 3.3mm with the front today. Unfortunately, only finished up with 52.3mm for the month. Not a bad drop compared to some areas, but it’s slightly below average for July. We were a bit unlucky early in the month when areas nearby got some healthy falls but we just missed out, so ended up with a slower start to the month. That leaves us with three well above average months for the year (January, May, June), two well below average (Feb, April), and two slightly below average (March, July). Currently about 400mm for the year; we’re actually tracking a bit above average for now. Will see how the rest of the year goes!