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VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018

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hillybilly
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly »

Couple of brief showers here today for a total of 0.6mm :o today was always going to be mainly coastal, with showers hanging on the coast near the trough to our south (which separates westerly winds from southerlies). That trough is not really a front, and if anything temperatures increase as you go south with milder air now wrapping into the eaastern part of the cut-off.

Chilly max here of 5.9C so proper winter weather :D
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Onetahuti »

BOM have upped their 'thoughts', now 20-35mm for here tomorrow.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by stevco123 »

20 to 30mm? More like 2 to 3 if we're lucky
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by nafets »

ACCESS looking pretty good for Central/Melbourne from midnight through tomorrow. Has those 20mm+ falls.
Go the bombersss!
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Didjman »

Its 3C outside here. With that line coming up the bay - maybe some fluffy stuff? Satpic looks good too.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Amandagorural »

Just starting to get the good stuff here now in Portarlington
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Didjman wrote: Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:21 pm Its 3C outside here. With that line coming up the bay - maybe some fluffy stuff? Satpic looks good too.
That trough is kicking off some nice cold convection off Bass strait and bays. Currently just over 2c here but the range and Sea surface temps may hamper the fluffy stuff falling here.

I love how the models can't pick cut off lows. This baby is now spinning over SE Tassie....not one model got that right from 2 days ago :) Most 400 km out too far east. Hence the upgrade in central Vic rainfall (but who knows really, only mother nature knows from this point :) ).
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian »

Down to an even 1.0C here now.
Clear, calm and starry.

Temp range today was 1C to a max of 3C
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Game is changing :)
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Wilko »

Here comes the heavy stuff..cmon !
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly »

Wild wet and windy night up here. Plenty of rain and sleet/graupel showers but don’t think it was cold enough for proper snow. Temps been slowly rising through the night as the cold air has been thrown up in central NSW and we are in a warming pattern. Suspect snowline started near 700-800m but is probably nearing 900-1000m now.

We’ve got a very sharp trough in southerly flow on the western side of the developing low parked near us with strong cyclonic curvature. This is creating highly unstable conditions with the total totals near 60 over Melbourne atm (I am struggling this think of too many step ups where the total totals have gone much about 55 :o ). That explains the rapid development of numerous connective bands and heavy showers merging into rain. Temperature here currently 4.7C.

So far had 22mm since this time yesterday and ~44mm for the event. MTD about 65mm. Need about 40mm to our monthly average. Could get there today, though depends when the clearance kicks through. I’m tending to think the showers will ease here from about 2pm as it goes too southerly, but an hour or two either side could be plus or minus 15mm.

Going to be a wild arvo as the southerly kicks in and draws showers straight up the bay. Big waves and one of the highest tides (if not the highest) for the year today :?
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly »

A photo of the storm surge last night affecting Brighton’s Golden Mile :o Storm surge seems to be running around 25cm atm.

Image

Just passed 31mm here for the 24 hours :D
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Low now in eastern Bass Strait. This is a classic Port Phillip bay convergence zone set up with the southerly wrap. Latest Access C 18Z starting to show it for the next 24 hours . The game changed last night when the low went over Tassie :)
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Skywalker »

If I'm reading that map correctly Jasmine we are right in the bullseye zone here. :o

Very wet morning here with minor flooding threatening to start in the usual spots in the backyard. Dog is hibernating inside with us, no doubt will be ready to tear the place apart by the end of the day.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

33mm in the plastic,
Off to a Kids game of footy.
Not looking forward to the outside duties involved..
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

We're on the wrong side of the Great Divide today (as expected). Still managed 3mm overnight though, bringing the event total to 29mm.

Some massive snowfalls happening as we speak at Lake Mountain and Buller this morning. One of the best starts to a snow season in 40 years:

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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by snowfall »

Gosh Jasmine, some very concentrated areas of high rainfall in that prediction from Access C.

Dark, cold and wet morning here, feeling very wintry. 14.3mm so far overnight and the morning and currently 6.6c after a low of 5.2c. Looks like the western suburbs are doing well at the moment judging by the radar.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by stevco123 »

Went to bed at 1.30am with only 5mm, woke up with 22mm :o :o :o .

Is it likely to die down this afternoon or ramp up a bit as the low heads east?
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

snowfall wrote: Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:29 am Gosh Jasmine, some very concentrated areas of high rainfall in that prediction from Access C.

Dark, cold and wet morning here, feeling very wintry. 14.3mm so far overnight and the morning and currently 6.6c after a low of 5.2c. Looks like the western suburbs are doing well at the moment judging by the radar.
A Laverton radar special by the looks of it. Kilmore Gap will cop a pasting too.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Skywalker »

About to really ramp up here, just gone black as a dogs guts (apologies to Rosie my Kelpie) outside.
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