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VIC - Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18 2018

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Gordon
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Gordon »

PS: Quite a good summary of this system here http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/did- ... rds/528057.

Some impressive numbers, if not long-term records.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Wilko »

Horts wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:25 pm
Sean wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:07 pm
stevco123 wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:13 am Coolangatta recorded its coldest June minimum ever at 0.6.

A 'global warming' alarmist's worst nightmare that surely is. :D :D

0.4mm here last 24 hours.
Steve, you're truly an ignorant man indeed. I would direct your attention toward the fact that glaciers are retreating to higher altitudes, the fact that the sea has risen, the fact that earth's global average temperature has risen, the fact that our own state of Victoria has seen longer heat waves, with temperatures at 45c across multiples centres far more times in one summer than should be seen in 5 years, but it means nothing to you whatsoever. Because contrarians like you are stubborn, pathetic fools.

For everyone that visits this board, this same man, who thinks global warming isn't happening despite the wealth of evidence we observe and record, tried purporting the 'contrail' conspiracy sh*t despite no evidence whatsoever. Why? Just more contrarian BS.

You don't double the atmospheric Co2 ppm without consequence, people. And that's what WE have done (not to mention the increase in atmospheric methane).. I mean, do people even understand how the atmosphere works? Greenhouse gases are called "greenhouse" gasses for a reason... Greenhouses get hot because they trap more photons. Well, more Co2 and methane in the atmosphere means that less photons escape into space, thus those photons introduce their energy (heat) into our systems, e.g. the ocean, melting ice, rock, etc. It's simple physics. Also, Co2 doesn't just trap more heat, it acidifies the oceans, making it harder for the bottom of the food chain to build their calcium carbonate structures.

It's true that we don't know exactly what's going to happen. We can't be 100% sure if some places will be drier while others wetter. What we do know, however, is that warmer temperatures melt snow and ice and cause the sea to expand (again, simple physics). What does this mean? Well, some animals will go extinct, while others will adapt like they always have. HOWEVER, our coastline cities can't get up and walk away from storm surges or advancing water, which means we may end up spending trillions trying to save old infrastructure INSTEAD of spending that on new infrastructure or technologies (think space, think medicine).

The oceans rise and fall and have throughout history, hence we find limestone and sea life fossils far inland, hence, people could walk between continents in the past. And one of the reasons behind why sea levels rise and fall is the composition of the atmosphere, how much heat our thermal blanket is holding on to.

Don't be fooled by a couple of cold days or a broken record.. Because when parts of North America and Europe suffered through that cold snap, Arctic temperatures were way above average, meaning that cold air was merely displaced. It wasn't 'extra' cold.

We have one damn home. No other planet in the solar system is habitable, which means everyone should be a environmentalist. You don't have to do much, just use a little less electricity. Buy a car with low emissions. Only vote for a government that is either investing in renewables or is going to actively save money for when fusion plants become a reality.

I know some members of this board are of the right/conservatives. So how about you 'conserve' our g'damn planet and its CURRENT climatology, because that's the climatology we have built our society around, that's the climatology our biological ecosystems have evolved to inhabit. If you don't, we lose a lot more money in the long run, and it will take millions of years for lost biodiversity to increase.
Well said Sean, one of the best posts I've read on this forum.

If I could like this post 1000 times I would.

I’ll keep this brief as this is not the correct place for such posts but I am dismayed there are some people that are yet to believe in man made runaway global warming. Probably still believe in the ‘Easter Bunny’

Here here we’ll expressed Sean

The current state in the Arctic is ‘Critical’
I we do not reduce carbon emissions in next 5-10 years then it may be too late

Add methane to the mix (150 times co2) then forget it

I have had a decent run at life (55yo) and I would like to afford future generations the same opportunities
https://climate.nasa.gov/system/downloa ... 21116.jpeg
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Great event! It was a great thread until the end there. We’ve all had our say, so let’s get back to the topic on hand please :)

Have been in Thailand (Koh Samui) for a few weeks but got back last Monday just in time for this epic weather! Spent my return down on the farm where it was cold, rained, got colder and rained a bit more! Since last Monday, the farm has received 118mm! Was a bit of a shock to the system coming from temperatures of 35 degrees with “feel like” temperatures between 43-48!!

Got back to Melbourne (from the farm) on Friday afternoon and still trying to adjust to the colder weather. Right now it’s about 3 degrees!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian »

Frosty and -3 at work at Macedon.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

-1 degC here and a deep frost.

Apparently -6c at Eungella near Mackay this morning. The cold airmass made it a long way North.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by snowfall »

Frosty this morning too and 0.7c.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Gordon »

This is pretty cool (no pun intended...): http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-19/b ... nd/9886242
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Already down to 4 degC and it's only 6:50pm. Brrrr...
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly »

Glorious day up here with a min of 4C and a maximum of 9C. Was quite mild in the sun, and our lounge room popped up to a toasting 23C with all the passive solar this arvo :D

Dropping like a stone out there now, but cirrus will prevent it getting as cold as last night.

Not seeing much weather in the next week now. We almost get a strong front on the weekend but it slips under us. Progs looking pretty dry for nearly the whole of OZ apart from coastal NSW which is getting some cracking showers and storms with the cold air.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Now down to 2 degC. Frost forming already.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian »

hillybilly wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:06 pm Glorious day up here with a min of 4C and a maximum of 9C. Was quite mild in the sun, and our lounge room popped up to a toasting 23C with all the passive solar this arvo :D

Dropping like a stone out there now, but cirrus will prevent it getting as cold as last night.

Not seeing much weather in the next week now. We almost get a strong front on the weekend but it slips under us. Progs looking pretty dry for nearly the whole of OZ apart from coastal NSW which is getting some cracking showers and storms with the cold air.
I wonder why it stayed so cold here HB?
4.8C this afternoon and still bits of frost in certain areas of my garden.
My living room was only 8C inside when i got home from work. Your house sounds better ;)
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly »

4.8C this afternoon and still bits of frost in certain areas of my garden.
We didn't get that cold (~4C) so only rose 5C so consistent with your obs. Sun's very weak this time of year so you don't rise too many degrees.

We've had similar days in the past when frost stayed all day in our garden. While the media got carried away by yesterday's chilly morning around Melbourne, when you look at the uppers it was actually fairly normal by winter standards which explains why we didn't drop that low in the end in the Dandenongs).

The coming weekend looks potentially colder (depending on which model you believe).
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Coldest temp recorded for 2018 so far here this morning. Got down to -2degC and there's quite a frost. More of these in the next week by the looks of it.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like no weather for a week now :o High and more highs. Maybe just the odd shower Saturday.

Could well end up another below average month for much of Vic depending on the timing of the fronts in about ten days time :(

Should be some nice frosty mornings and sunny arvos so nice weather for mid winter.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian »

It was gorgeous at work today after another -3 morning. I love this sort of weather esp after getting good rain last week.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Didjman »

Down to 4c here now.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

5th frost in a row tonight. Already 1c and very icey.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by Macedonian »

-3 at Macedon and -4 at Trentham.
0 at my place and everything white and frozen after the fourth frost this week.
Quite unusual to get enough clear conditions for 4 frosts in a row at Mt Macedon. This one is a doozy. :D
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by flyfisher »

Frost = drought signature as pointed out by HB some time ago.

Looks worse next week with a big high right over us with a cold pool sitting in the uppers. Frosts could intensify at all levels. Don't like the way the pattern is going currently - looks like a dry winter, but always hopeful it will "Somehow" change to wet. Ski season should be alright as cold temps and not much moisture to wash the snow away.

IOD is just crazy cold near Australia now, right from the coast to the mid-Indian ocean. El Nino forming in the Pacific too.
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Re: Series of fronts ending with cold outbreak: June 11-18

Post by hillybilly »

Frost = drought signature as pointed out by HB some time ago.
Just reminds me of 2009 ATM. Weakish La Nina spoiled by a positive IOD followed by a weak but unhelpful El Nino. Central Pacific is already near +1C. Question is whether the eastern parts also warm now. Current models are mostly showing a weak El Nino with BoM, NOAA etc putting the odds around 50:50.

Springs going to hit with a bang if it doesn't rain soon in inlands parts as they are seriously dry (and the trend only goes on way) :?
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