VIC - Major low and possible cold outbreak: May 7-14 2018

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 1746
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Gordon » Fri May 11, 2018 9:14 am

10mm more since I posted 90 minutes ago - rain to 9am 34mm, event 44mm. (44.5mm if you count Tuesday)

Still coming down steadily and the 512km radar suggests more on the way for all of central.

Edit: very reminiscent of April last year, although we're doing a better job of sharing :).

stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 1935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by stevco123 » Fri May 11, 2018 9:33 am

VERRRYY STILL here with drenching drizzle. The type that finds itself into your bones.

That NULL WIND MAP website shows an interesting pattern of where the winds are coming from and how strong.

Going by it, the low only needs to move 50km to the east and we will get slammed.

Expect then to pick up very soon
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

Macedonian
Supercell
Posts: 1776
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Macedonian » Fri May 11, 2018 9:34 am

snowfall wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 9:00 am
25.6mm overnight here. Got woken up quite a few times with the sound of heavy rain on the roof. Still some showers coming through, but we are now sitting between two major streams of showers/rain coming from the south. I expect this will change as the morning continues on.
Right between it for our area! A tad frustrating!

Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1441
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Skywalker » Fri May 11, 2018 9:55 am

Getting constantly smashed here at work, heavy shower after heavy shower. :D
Thank god I brought the dog into work today, she would be ready to tear the place apart if I left her at home.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

nafets
Supercell
Posts: 1286
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 6:10 pm
Location: Ascot vale

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by nafets » Fri May 11, 2018 9:59 am

Up to 35mm for the event now, bay stream conveyor belt continues shooting showers up! Could be another 20mm by later this arvo.
Go the bombersss!

stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 1935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by stevco123 » Fri May 11, 2018 10:07 am

I don't get it. Yet another certain heavy rainband comes towards the outer south east, and then either slides north east or in this case north west. There's surely an explanation for this, but we've been damn unlucky the last 28 hours
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 112
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Horts » Fri May 11, 2018 10:13 am

stevco123 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:07 am
I don't get it. Yet another certain heavy rainband comes towards the outer south east, and then either slides north east or in this case north west. There's surely an explanation for this, but we've been damn unlucky the last 28 hours
Same for the Peninsula, at least where I am, Red Hill/Arthurs Seat looks to be shredding anything that comes over, then reforms just to the north over the bay, hitting the CBD and dropping good totals to the Nthrn Suburbs, really frustrating, at this rate with the direction the showers are tacking I can't really see out totals improving a whole lot down here. Early days though.

Can't remember the models picking this to do so well in the west?

Also it's dead still, would've thought the wind would be here by now.

Hunter1890
Cumulus
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:43 pm
Location: Ivanhoe, Waratah Bay VIC

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Hunter1890 » Fri May 11, 2018 10:20 am

Horts wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:13 am
Can't remember the models picking this to do so well in the west?
A few of the models did indicate that areas west of Melbourne's CBD would do well. Of course it's difficult to keep track of all of them, especially when they kept chopping and changing due to this system's complex nature.

Watching that area in eastern Bass Strait carefully. Looks like a central Low is beginning to form out of the two?
-Budding Climate Nerd-

User avatar
mick
Supercell
Posts: 1350
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:45 pm
Location: down the bay

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by mick » Fri May 11, 2018 10:26 am

Hunter1890 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:20 am
Horts wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 10:13 am
Can't remember the models picking this to do so well in the west?
A few of the models did indicate that areas west of Melbourne's CBD would do well. Of course it's difficult to keep track of all of them, especially when they kept chopping and changing due to this system's complex nature.

Watching that area in eastern Bass Strait carefully. Looks like a central Low is beginning to form out of the two?
Its just started to drizzle down at the 90 mile beach, only had 10mm or so in the last few days, see how we go from here.
No wind to speak of. Temp has just gone into single figures for 1st time.

Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1441
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Skywalker » Fri May 11, 2018 11:04 am

Crickey check out the radar! :o
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 345
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by tonycynic » Fri May 11, 2018 11:11 am

Are those reds to the south on the doppler from a windchange or just an artefact of the rain? Should be picking up over the next hour or two.

Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 1746
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Gordon » Fri May 11, 2018 11:30 am

Gordon wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 9:33 am
Yes that's always the concern with ECL-type systems, although encouragingly, this system has shown a tendency to drift west since it was first picked up by the models.
This from way back on Monday. Subsequently the models lost interest in west-central (us) for a while, before jumping back on at the last minute. Also worth re-posting the WATL chart from Monday - it too deteriorated in accuracy closer to the event, going more for a classis far East Gippsland event only. There's a lesson in there somewhere!
Image

Meanwhile, back in real time, we've cracked 52mm for the event and still teeming down. That incoming blob from Bass Strait does indeed look ominous on the radar.

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1438
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri May 11, 2018 11:37 am

Grampians just had a gust of 133 km/h..... it's wild on the western flank :)

I've had a very detailed look at circulation on the sat pic. Fujiwhara effect is almost complete and a single circulation and deepening is underway. Not 1 model has the position of the low correct. On current location at 10am and movement, I would assume the big squeeze zone for rain will develop on the bay. but ...it's a cut off low...anything is possible from hour to hour..

Here is an ob to keep an eye on. Watch the baro pressure to get an idea of low location.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60801 ... 5039.shtml
Attachments
Sat Pic 10am 11 May.jpg
Sat Pic 10am 11 May.jpg (240.45 KiB) Viewed 1393 times

Macedonian
Supercell
Posts: 1776
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Macedonian » Fri May 11, 2018 12:05 pm

The ABC weatherman made special mention of Melbs outer northern suburbs last night. He said they would do well from the rain today. Not often you hear that. Its usually the east or south east.

Raining nicely here in Macedon.
Ive got a bus tour of 32 people coming to see the garden i look after at 1.30pm. Dont think its a very good idea if the strong wind materialises.

Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1441
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Skywalker » Fri May 11, 2018 12:20 pm

Absolutely bucketing down here, going to need a boat to get home tonight at this rate.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

snowfall
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 321
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (346m asl)

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by snowfall » Fri May 11, 2018 12:20 pm

Bucketing down here, as it seems to be through a lot of the central area at the moment. My wind gauge unfortunately broke a while ago and I haven't had a chance to replace it, so I don't have any measures of the wind. So all I can say is that it's windy, but not very windy!

Great analysis Jasmine.

stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 1935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by stevco123 » Fri May 11, 2018 12:33 pm

Only 3mm from that last lot and nothing behind it nearly. Sigh
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1108
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Didjman » Fri May 11, 2018 12:40 pm

32mm here so far. Temp 10/9

Sean
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 462
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Sean » Fri May 11, 2018 12:51 pm

Went to bed looking at the epic radar, which was orange with blobs of red, yet it wasn't raining..

I don't know if their's a rain shadow or if the radar sucks, but it's all been very disappointing so far.

Hoping something develops, but given up on anything extraordinary that's for sure.

Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 1746
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Major low and possible cold outbreak : May 7-14

Post by Gordon » Fri May 11, 2018 1:11 pm

Up to 55mm here now; wind getting nasty...

Locked

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 15 guests