snowfall wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 9:00 am
25.6mm overnight here. Got woken up quite a few times with the sound of heavy rain on the roof. Still some showers coming through, but we are now sitting between two major streams of showers/rain coming from the south. I expect this will change as the morning continues on.
Right between it for our area! A tad frustrating!
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
Getting constantly smashed here at work, heavy shower after heavy shower.
Thank god I brought the dog into work today, she would be ready to tear the place apart if I left her at home.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
I don't get it. Yet another certain heavy rainband comes towards the outer south east, and then either slides north east or in this case north west. There's surely an explanation for this, but we've been damn unlucky the last 28 hours
stevco123 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 10:07 am
I don't get it. Yet another certain heavy rainband comes towards the outer south east, and then either slides north east or in this case north west. There's surely an explanation for this, but we've been damn unlucky the last 28 hours
Same for the Peninsula, at least where I am, Red Hill/Arthurs Seat looks to be shredding anything that comes over, then reforms just to the north over the bay, hitting the CBD and dropping good totals to the Nthrn Suburbs, really frustrating, at this rate with the direction the showers are tacking I can't really see out totals improving a whole lot down here. Early days though.
Can't remember the models picking this to do so well in the west?
Also it's dead still, would've thought the wind would be here by now.
Horts wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 10:13 am
Can't remember the models picking this to do so well in the west?
A few of the models did indicate that areas west of Melbourne's CBD would do well. Of course it's difficult to keep track of all of them, especially when they kept chopping and changing due to this system's complex nature.
Watching that area in eastern Bass Strait carefully. Looks like a central Low is beginning to form out of the two?
Horts wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 10:13 am
Can't remember the models picking this to do so well in the west?
A few of the models did indicate that areas west of Melbourne's CBD would do well. Of course it's difficult to keep track of all of them, especially when they kept chopping and changing due to this system's complex nature.
Watching that area in eastern Bass Strait carefully. Looks like a central Low is beginning to form out of the two?
Its just started to drizzle down at the 90 mile beach, only had 10mm or so in the last few days, see how we go from here.
No wind to speak of. Temp has just gone into single figures for 1st time.
Gordon wrote: ↑Mon May 07, 2018 9:33 am
Yes that's always the concern with ECL-type systems, although encouragingly, this system has shown a tendency to drift west since it was first picked up by the models.
This from way back on Monday. Subsequently the models lost interest in west-central (us) for a while, before jumping back on at the last minute. Also worth re-posting the WATL chart from Monday - it too deteriorated in accuracy closer to the event, going more for a classis far East Gippsland event only. There's a lesson in there somewhere!
Meanwhile, back in real time, we've cracked 52mm for the event and still teeming down. That incoming blob from Bass Strait does indeed look ominous on the radar.
Grampians just had a gust of 133 km/h..... it's wild on the western flank
I've had a very detailed look at circulation on the sat pic. Fujiwhara effect is almost complete and a single circulation and deepening is underway. Not 1 model has the position of the low correct. On current location at 10am and movement, I would assume the big squeeze zone for rain will develop on the bay. but ...it's a cut off low...anything is possible from hour to hour..
Here is an ob to keep an eye on. Watch the baro pressure to get an idea of low location.
The ABC weatherman made special mention of Melbs outer northern suburbs last night. He said they would do well from the rain today. Not often you hear that. Its usually the east or south east.
Raining nicely here in Macedon.
Ive got a bus tour of 32 people coming to see the garden i look after at 1.30pm. Dont think its a very good idea if the strong wind materialises.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
Bucketing down here, as it seems to be through a lot of the central area at the moment. My wind gauge unfortunately broke a while ago and I haven't had a chance to replace it, so I don't have any measures of the wind. So all I can say is that it's windy, but not very windy!