Hearing some absolutely marvellous sounds on the roof right now! RAIN!
This first frontal system should provide us with up to 10mm hopefully (going by ACCESS), if we're lucky, 15mm would be grouse! GFS indicates this, though EC is a bit less.
Still love to watch the models trying to decipher this complex system. The 00z EC run certainly wants to give the southwest coast a nice soaking with accumulated falls up to 50-70mm by Friday night. The real focus on EC though is across the eastern ranges, Gippsland and the far east, with widespread totals up to 100mm with higher local falls to 130-150mm.
06z GFS is a lot laid back for the southwest, falls between 20-40mm up to Friday night with spot falls in the Otway region up to 50mm. GFS definitely gives Melbourne (mainly eastern and southeast suburbs) a real blast with falls up to 50-60mm by Friday night with the west side of town generally between 25-30mm. The focus again out east with very high falls between 100-200mm for the far east and locally higher totals above that as we persist into Saturday night.
00z ACCESS-G shows totals along the southwest coast to be around the 15-25mm up to Friday night, while 30-50mm in and around the Melbourne area. And then the focus is all about the east with falls up to 100mm and spot falls to 150mm by Saturday night.
The Canadian model tends to hang falls a bit further west, similar to 06z ACCESS-R, which Jasmine posted earlier this evening, and 06z GFS.
It's still one compliacted system. Worth paying close attention to the models and particularly the observations from this point on. Satellite will become a very handy feature this week!
