VICTORIA - Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9 2018

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JasmineStorm
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu May 03, 2018 11:24 am

Winds still ok here, had a gust of 30 km/h. Access C has upgraded the system over elevated central areas on the 18z run, Melbourne’s east also. Hopefully can squeeze out 20mm here. Interesting to see this afternoon what happens with all the burn offs when the wind picks up and humidity goes into the 30’s.

Something big is definitely going on around the south pole. http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 46#p104946 When it cuts loose and pulses north this could set off an ECL sting jet off the SE coast as well.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Horts » Thu May 03, 2018 3:12 pm

Radar doesnt look too promising for central.
Well, anywhere besides the SW really :(

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly » Thu May 03, 2018 6:17 pm

Interesting to see this afternoon what happens with all the burn offs when the wind picks up and humidity goes into the 30’s.
Lots and lots of small fires broken out. Seems they have been knocked down quickly, but still not what you expect in May.

Fair bit of rain in the radar hole, so expecting 10-20mm in FC. West and northeast should do quite well.

BTW record heat in a few spots (again) including a May southern Vic record at Bairnsdale :(

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by stevco123 » Thu May 03, 2018 7:51 pm

What a hole! Developing everywhere except Melbourne
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Rivergirl » Thu May 03, 2018 8:04 pm

As Hillybilly mentioned re the fires up here -

Yesterday fire bans finished so residents up here in the hills started burning off. It's so dry up here still. Within 2 hours there were 5 fires within our vicinity that were caused by burns that got out of control, more in other parts of the hills. Same thing has happened today.

Early tonight apart from numerous calls out for the same thing we had a fire break out a couple of houses up the front then 10 minutes later another fire across the road that we back onto. With these wind gusts up to 50kph and the dryness, it's quite scary up here. Thank you CFA, you have been so busy.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by tonycynic » Thu May 03, 2018 8:08 pm

Is there a rain force field around the CBD?

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by wolfcat » Thu May 03, 2018 8:10 pm

Oh Yes, there is a rain shield around Melbourne, the image proves it.

Image

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu May 03, 2018 8:30 pm

Rain on the tin roof, nothing like it. Radar filling in nicely up here, that is a ripper rain shadow over Melbourne ATM.

Been a gusty evening, had one at 64 km/h. Not surprised on the burn off fires. They pulled the trigger a few days too early IMO.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by stevco123 » Thu May 03, 2018 8:49 pm

100% this will fill in at about 3am. And then move quickly out by 4am. Typical rubbish.

If we don't get 10mm we are we're in trouble
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Horts » Thu May 03, 2018 8:55 pm

Does anybody live inside the 'hole'? West of the CBD between Melb and Meredith.
Is it an error with the radar or a massive rainshadow? Doesnt seem to be picking up anything inside the 64km ring?

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by snowfall » Thu May 03, 2018 9:00 pm

Incredible rainshadow, but all as predicted. We’re also caught in it here, right on the edge, although light rain has just started.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by snowfall » Thu May 03, 2018 9:15 pm

Looks like the rainshadow is gradually shrinking. Steady light rain here - still very windy.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Tassiedave » Thu May 03, 2018 9:31 pm

NEW RECORD: Launceston reached 22.9 degrees today which is its highest recorded May temperature. Previous record 22.0 1st May 1997

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hillybilly
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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly » Thu May 03, 2018 9:47 pm

Spotty rain here now. Radar looks ok, but not getting too excited. Monthly average here is about 110mm, so we should be getting near 30mm a week :?

That rainshdow wasn’t actually real. Melbourne was surrounded by virga. It was only once you got a certain distance from the radar that the beam got high enough to see the rain. There will definitely be rainshadowing in the totals, but the radar earlier was largely an artifact.

Totals out west still mounting which is good. Almost an autumn break, if we get follow up :?:

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Macedonian » Thu May 03, 2018 9:53 pm

Rivergirl wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 8:04 pm
As Hillybilly mentioned re the fires up here -

Yesterday fire bans finished so residents up here in the hills started burning off. It's so dry up here still. Within 2 hours there were 5 fires within our vicinity that were caused by burns that got out of control, more in other parts of the hills. Same thing has happened today.

Early tonight apart from numerous calls out for the same thing we had a fire break out a couple of houses up the front then 10 minutes later another fire across the road that we back onto. With these wind gusts up to 50kph and the dryness, it's quite scary up here. Thank you CFA, you have been so busy.
The stupid idiots should be ashamed of themselves. Lighting burn-off fires when it was still dry, warm and windy. Couldnt they wait for a few weeks?
Still, they were given the go ahead by CFA. Ridiculous.

Finally getting some decent rain here this evening. Its going to take a lot to catch up on the shortfall this year so far.
I hope this spells the end of the heat/dry until spring.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu May 03, 2018 10:40 pm

We're doing quite well tonight. Just copped 14mm with some small hail in the past hour or so. Beyond my expectations to be honest...

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Didjman » Thu May 03, 2018 10:46 pm

Macedonian wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 9:53 pm

The stupid idiots should be ashamed of themselves. Lighting burn-off fires when it was still dry, warm and windy. Couldnt they wait for a few weeks?
Still, they were given the go ahead by CFA. Ridiculous.
In my CFA district (12) the call went out yesterday - no burns Thursday and to extinguish any from Wednesday!

To burn today - WHAT THE.............

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by QldTwister » Thu May 03, 2018 10:51 pm

SW, W, NW, NC all doing well 5-10mm in NW and 10-20mm for most others which is great and best rain in 5 months.

Melb 5-10mm looking good higher east burbs and dandys

GREAT to see SOME rain for all of inland Vic MUCH MUCH needed

Sadly no rain after this for 10-14 days, amazing pattern we are in Killing farmers hopes of good crop if goes into June which I think it will.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by Macedonian » Thu May 03, 2018 11:13 pm

Just hit 20mm. Fantastic.

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Re: Sequence of Fronts: May 3-9

Post by hillybilly » Fri May 04, 2018 5:30 am

Just over 10mm here. Ok start, now just waiting to see how the showers go. It’s going to be an unstable day today, but being mainly westerly it can be very hit and miss. Comes down to moisture in the low levels and if showers get organised.

Patchy falls as expected. Good falls in the central ranges, southwest and northeast ranges. Hit miss elsewhere. Melbourne’s west through to Geelong missed out completely :o :(

Btw EC throwing a curve ball with a huge cold low mid week :o The idea of a strong cold outbreak and cutoff has been on and off, so don’t know what to make of it. UK has a couple of decent fronts, which Canadian and US models have a high :roll:

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