VICTORIA: Potential Autumn Break - March 23-26 2018

[Macedonian]

Mt Macedon top scored for Victoria with 36mm. I was hoping to at least get 10 but we got very lucky.

[Sean]

12-15mm, which is good but not great. Looks like the storms are well and truly north, which is a shame, but at least almost everywhere through the central regions has picked up something worthwhile. BOM only progging around 1-3mm for tomorrow - hope we score more than that! lol

[nafets]

18.5mm in Ascot Vale which is just great. As has been mentioned a great light show from that cell that raced from the NW into the Yarra Valley. Definitely some instability left with cells N of Melb.

[Didjman]

Question for people like HB and JS. What caused that fast moving, rapidly developing convergence line this evening? From what I could see it started as a small bunch of cells tracking SE from the Mallee - and then boom! I am keen to know!

[JasmineStorm]

Question for people like HB and JS. What caused that fast moving, rapidly developing convergence line this evening? From what I could see it started as a small bunch of cells tracking SE from the Mallee - and then boom! I am keen to know!

My 2 cents worth....The wind speed at height was increasing rapidly. I saw the latest obs showing over 50 knots at 700 hPa, which helps strengthen the updraft and allows the storms to maintain the rage while travelling rapidly There were also big temp differences between 850 and 500 hPa, which normally means lightning potential.

[PapaD]

34 mm at Hanging Rock. Very pleased with that.

[93ben]

Currently seeing lightning in Templestowe and the wind is picking up.

[hillybilly]

Weirdly warm and really windy up here this morning. Strange as yesterday was cool to mild with and following the rainband.

Not seeing any proper rain for us today until late. Showers and storms will mainly hang around the northern slopes and Bass Strait.

EDIT> looking at the conditions, the uppers are still really warm. 850Ts at 4am we’re still in the mid to high teens across Vic. That almost as hot as last weekend, but this time we’ve had the rain and cloud, rather than just the warmth and wind

[93ben]

I'm surprised the BOM hasn't included Melbourne/whole of central in the severe weather warning by now. The wind is certainly getting a lot stronger!

[StratoBendigo]

9mm so far.

Yes, it's got that pineapple express feel in the air atm. When the cold uppers come through this evening it could get interesting. GFS has subzero 850T over us tomorrow morning. Brrrr....

[Didjman]

Question for people like HB and JS. What caused that fast moving, rapidly developing convergence line this evening? From what I could see it started as a small bunch of cells tracking SE from the Mallee - and then boom! I am keen to know!

My 2 cents worth....The wind speed at height was increasing rapidly. I saw the latest obs showing over 50 knots at 700 hPa, which helps strengthen the updraft and allows the storms to maintain the rage while travelling rapidly There were also big temp differences between 850 and 500 hPa, which normally means lightning potential.

Thx JS, That makes sense of it all

[Dane]

14.2mm's in the 24 hours to 9am almost 3 times the amount I have had here in the previous 54 days.
Some thunder and Lightning around at 2.30am and again about 4am but not much rain with those.
Looks like mainly fine until later today when the showers pick up again.

[Jake Smethurst]

Good to see further rainfall on the approach to Melbourne tonight with the next system. The Southwest has seen some okay falls, they'd love more but my parents say it'll certainly keep a lid on fire danger down their way after the recent fires. Looks like a nice wet, showery night ahead! Though watch out for those blustery winds!

[Sean]

This scruffy band appears to be rather empty... But here comes the wind, of course.

[hillybilly]

Been really windy here the last hour or two. Roaring through the tree tops. Looks like it’s about to start raining

Thinking another 5-10mm overnight here, then starting out mostly fine tomorrow with showers later. It’s too westerly with the cold air tomorrow for showers to spread inland for most of Vic, but as the air warms and we get a bit of warm air advection showers will spread inland more. Going to be a wild 36 hours on the coast.

[Gordon]

A quick-fire 3mm here and still coming down. Another 1mm this morning so 27mm for the event so far.

Certainly regarded as the autumn break here (the local definition being a one inch (25mm) plus fall between St Patrick's Day and Anzac Day). It's overall success will depend on follow-up rain of course, but a break's a break.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

reports of Tornado Tolmie. they did say Mini, but i dont understand mini when they mention roofs ripped off.

[hillybilly]

Pouring up here now. 7mm and thick rain still falling with fog blowing past in a gale. Trees really getting hammered. Classic unstable nwly stream which tend to be really productive here. Event now nearing 30mm, and 38mm for the week (counting the drizzle on Tuesday). Nice turnaround after that shocking dry spell

Unfortunately, our local AWS looks to be blocked

[Gordon]

Up to 8mm now, 32mm for the dates. Models significantly underestimated rain here for both yesterday's system and today's - nice

[Onetahuti]

Ticking up slowly, now 7.2mm this evening, not a lot more in it at least short term but great follow-up from yesterday. Appreciating the Davis station, certainly would not be venturing out to read the manual gauge. Had a peak gust of 47km/h @ 6:52PM.