Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Messy week ahead with a high to our south and an easterly trough dominating. Tonight an upper trough approaches from the SW with light rain developing across Bass Strait and parts of Vic. Models in complete disagreement for totals (e.g., CMC has zilch for Melbourne while EC has locally near 10mm).

Instability lingers through Monday in the northeast, then as the week progresses becomes more general. Quite unclear how the week will end, with EC and ACCESS bring down the EC-TC with heavy rain. CMC pulls most the TC residuals to the south and gives us a hot mostly dry end to the week while GFS sits inbetween.

Is one of the more frustrating set up for consistency in the models and between model runs, so obviously a huge amount of uncertainty. Based on current runs, FC could see anywhere between 6mm and 60mm :roll: for the week.
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3142
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Rained over night here, at one stage it was decent,
under 1mm in guage,
SWW issued 10am.. can only hope..
L
Lucia
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Location: Lilydale

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Lucia »

Extremely strong gusts of wind being experienced here, drying the garden even more. Plants are given a really good drink and by the next day very droopy again, even with a nice coating of mulch :x . Very trying this windy dry weather, will be glad when the summer is over. Received a miserly 1 ml overnight, enough to wet the drive!!
D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1659
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Dane »

0.6mm's overnight MTD now 0.8mm's.
Need Rain now !!!
B
Blackie
Reactions:

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Blackie »

There's something about these ESE'lys that I find disturbing. And so does my dog. Winds gusting to 63km here in Elwood presently. Makes for a trying night of tennis.
s
snowfall
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by snowfall »

A mere 0.3mm last night. Takes us up to 2.9mm MTD. It’s dry! Just have to hope that the weekend brings something a bit more than a sprinkling. Windy currently here but not too bad.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Skywalker »

Absolutely flew home on the bike tonight with that strong south easterly behind me. I actually ran out of gears at one stage. :P
I honestly can't remember the last time we had such a strong wind from this direction.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
j
jimmyay
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:33 pm
Location: Port Melbourne

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by jimmyay »

This warm strong south easterly wind is really peculiar.
W
WeatherViewer
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:57 pm
Location: Truganina

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by WeatherViewer »

What is causing these strong winds? Can anyone explain...
User avatar
Onetahuti
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2786
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:37 pm
Location: Dandenong Nth.

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Onetahuti »

WeatherViewer wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:02 pm What is causing these strong winds? Can anyone explain...
I think you will find that the remnants of TC Gita which is now and into Wednesday bringing heavy rain, up to 200mm and gales, gusts to 130km/h to central New Zealand is acting as a block to the system currently over us.
User avatar
Onetahuti
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2786
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:37 pm
Location: Dandenong Nth.

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Onetahuti »

Skywalker wrote: Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:22 pm Absolutely flew home on the bike tonight with that strong south easterly behind me. I actually ran out of gears at one stage. :P
I honestly can't remember the last time we had such a strong wind from this direction.
I cycled in the opposite direction, used level 2 of power assist on the bike to go down one hill on the way home, I usually use that to go up the same hill going to the nursing home.
C
Chritc
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:59 am

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Chritc »

Been quiet on here!!!! The progs are doing their usual little shimmy east of the rainfall as the track of the ex-cyclone from WA becomes clearer. Still more wiggle room but the South-West of the state and now edging into southern parts of central look like getting a decent drop..... Even some storm potential developing now for Friday through areas including Melbourne.....

Might be a nice little system that catches a fair few by surprise given the rather uneventful spell (except for the wind).
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Gordon »

Chritc wrote: Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:16 pm Been quiet on here!!!!
Yes, I think many of us are feeling a bit beaten lately by rainfall forecasts that fade away close to the delivery date! Still, the latest system seems to be bucking the trend a little, with models and forecasts improving rather than retracting as we get closer. Fingers crossed!
s
snowfall
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by snowfall »

Yes there hasn’t been a lot to talk about weather wise. We seem to have hit a long stretch of the doldrums, with almost no rain, sandwiched between big rain bearing systems over Western Australia and New Zealand. We’re sitting on a mere 3mm for the month so far. Looks like a little patchy rain today, but might not be enough to register in the gauge. Some of it will be virga as well. Hoping that Friday/Saturday will deliver at least a few mms.
W
Wilko
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1488
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Wilko »

Warming up indeed and subs out
Melbourne has already exceeded 27c
Currently 28.5
Bom are way out on this one !
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Yes there hasn’t been a lot to talk about weather wise.
I've been off travelling with very limited internet. Also a bit (actually a lot) over this weather. Closing in on 4 weeks now without proper rain for us. Things are thoroughly crispy, and garden looks awful. This is probably the worst dry spell for us now since summer 2008/09. If we miss this coming event we may well approach that event which saw close to zilch in a six week period.

1.2mm for the week so far. Am hoping for 20mm next three days, but not at all confident in the models and the climate's ability to rain ATM.
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Gordon »

A mighty 1mm so far today. It's testament to the lack of rain that 1mm felt and sounded like about 5mm!
L
Lucia
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Location: Lilydale

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Lucia »

I can see some light showers on their way across, praying and hoping please come my way and give us some watering relief! :raining: :|
L
Lucia
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Location: Lilydale

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Lucia »

Very slow moving, a few mls adding up now near Ballarat.
User avatar
Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3142
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Heard it was raining in Horsham, they would be very impressed..
Locked