I have noticed the deciduous trees loosing their leaves, some are going yellow but others are falling green. No red leaves like in Autumn proper. Could not even score some drizzle for this event - winds gone quickly to SE.
It's not looking great for rain this Autumn/winter. Yes the weak La Nina is fading, but it's influence on us here is minimal in the coming season. It's the Indian Ocean that's most concerning. Large cooler than normal waters near Australia and warming near Africa. So it's looking like a positive IOD although the models think it will return to the cool side.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
What I think we can be sure of is some mighty ECL activity during Autumn which is the time of the year they are usually strong. Tasman sea is very warm. Will help coastal NSW break their dry spell and perhaps Gippsland.
What is impossible to predict is the SAM. We can only hope that is goes it goes negative and expands westerly's towards Australia. (Then flip next summer to positive) Some strong fronts might induce on NW cloud bands despite poor Indian ocean temps.
So I would like to order up a retrograding ECL that comes into central Bass straight and hovers around for a few days - what's say Huey?