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VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

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hillybilly
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by hillybilly »

For those wondering, almost record low Feb in Melbourne with 1.6mm. Record is 0.5mm in 1965. 1mm is neither here nor there, so basically equal record low....

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by flyfisher »

I have noticed the deciduous trees loosing their leaves, some are going yellow but others are falling green. No red leaves like in Autumn proper. Could not even score some drizzle for this event - winds gone quickly to SE.

It's not looking great for rain this Autumn/winter. Yes the weak La Nina is fading, but it's influence on us here is minimal in the coming season. It's the Indian Ocean that's most concerning. Large cooler than normal waters near Australia and warming near Africa. So it's looking like a positive IOD although the models think it will return to the cool side.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

What I think we can be sure of is some mighty ECL activity during Autumn which is the time of the year they are usually strong. Tasman sea is very warm. Will help coastal NSW break their dry spell and perhaps Gippsland.

What is impossible to predict is the SAM. We can only hope that is goes it goes negative and expands westerly's towards Australia. (Then flip next summer to positive) Some strong fronts might induce on NW cloud bands despite poor Indian ocean temps.

So I would like to order up a retrograding ECL that comes into central Bass straight and hovers around for a few days - what's say Huey?
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Macedonian »

Cold here and very strong wind all day.
Highest temp today was 11.9C
It is back to 10.5C now.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by flyfisher »

OMG look at the back building storms in NE Vic. Some light showery stuff trying to make it here from the SE - not our preferred direction.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Sean »

The trees around here also think it's autumn.. Most are turning yellow and dropping leaves. My lawns are bare dirt. If it weren't for those rains earlier in the summer, the natives would probably be stressed as well. So depressing.

It has sprinkled a few times, but in terms of millimetres accumulated, it would equal whatever the vertical dimension of a water drop is, lol.

From good rains to zilch... Honestly expected to see above average rain this Feb.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by WeatherViewer »

Raining here in Tarneit.
Coming from the east, quite strange.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Gordon »

Heavy drizzle here for the last 20 minutes or so. Totally unexpected; not even a mention in the forecast. And straight on the back of Saturday's big fail. These are strange times indeed... :?

Edit: ended up with 2.5mm in the gauge this morning; an even 10mm for the mtd.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by hillybilly »

A few spots here overnight. Good falls out in the east again, which is good for them. Parts of the northeast and Gippsland have had an almost average February now.

Not seeing meaningful rain in the outlook. Decent low misses Vic by 200km on Wednesday, going through Tasmania and Bass Strait. Upper trough next weekend ends up producing more rain in NSW. Need the pattern to change, but geez not seeing it atm.

Sorry story for central Vic on the rainfall map.

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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by snowfall »

Lots of wind but no rain here on the weekend unfortunately. Unless there’s a drop on Wednesday, we’ll be closing the month on 5.2mm. Definitely a dry month and no end in sight! For a while there it was looking like we might have been in store for quite a wet summer, so it’s a massive turnaround in terms of how dry it went so suddenly.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by stevco123 »

Just a coincidence that it's been dry between the 1st of feb and mar.

I wouldn't say is unusual but 30 days without rain is definitely not good
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by QldTwister »

Even worst in the Mallee where they get 40mm or so first 2 months, they had had 2-5mm this year dry there to.

Next 2 weeks more dry but warm and loving that

PREFECT day today just wow

Tomorrow also looking PREFECT

Friday Saturday also Prefect.

Keep this weather COMING

Rains will return at Easter
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Skywalker »

More wind filth has arrived here this morning. The boring useless conditions continue.... :cussing:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by hillybilly »

I wouldn't say is unusual but 30 days without rain is definitely not good
Driest month in the city since January 2009. Driest February since 1991. A month this dry is about a once a decade event for us so it’s pretty rare.

Progs suggests we might turn thundery later next week which would put the dry spell around six weeks (at a minimum). Am over this dry :(

These dry spells are worse now because they are hotter. Australian trees use evaporation to cool themselves, and so they experience higher heat stress in droughts now. If you get out in our forests you’ll see many dead trees. Up here there are spots where all the big trees have died since 1997.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by flyfisher »

Another day another dry change - watching it slip through bass straight to give Tasmania some rain. Looks like dry change again on Friday. Models hinting at possible thundery weather with higher humidity next week. But given the no rain bias currently over our area, I am not counting on it.

Councils should start to emergency water vulnerable trees, some won't make it though to when ever it will rain properly again.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Yes, looks like they have stolen the show down there in Tasmania.. :o :aussie:
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Dane »

Finished with 1.5mm's for the month here, driest since my records began in January 2002.
Thats 194 months of records and this is the driest month.
Previous record was 3.0mm's in January 2013 - previous February record was 3.6mm's in 2009.
Doesnt look like much rain in the outlook either. :x
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Skywalker »

Horrid trip ride home on the bike coming up with these disgusting strong westerly winds. :cussing:

It's a real worry when the western desert has spread across the entire central area as far east as the dandenong ranges. Not good at all, especially with the impact it's having on the trees.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Lucia »

Already had 2 loads of water delivered and half used, don't seem to be getting anywhere with the watering, this hot dry wind and conditions are unable to be kept up with I'm afraid. :grumpy:
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by stevco123 »

Rain here :D :D :D
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Re: VIC: Warm, humid and possibly showery/thundery - Feb 18 to 25 2018

Post by Tassiedave »

Rain from today's LOW in Tasmania: Tim Shea 72 mm, Cradle Valley 40 mm, Narcissus River 25 mm, Hobart Airport 23 mm, Luncheon Hill 18 mm, Woods Lake 18 mm, Kingston 18 mm, Copping 9.6 mm, Hobart 9.4 mm, Smithton 6 mm, Wynyard 2.8 mm, Deloraine 2.4 mm, Scottsdale 1.0 mm
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