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VIC: Return of summer - February 5 to 10 2018

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flyfisher
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by flyfisher »

I certainly hope the Indian Ocean of NW Australia warms up because at current temps we are looking at a dry Autumn and winter. The Indian Ocean seems to be in a cool phase currently. MJO is strong in the pacific which could trigger an El Nino at the same time. Hope not.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly »

Decent hill fog this morning in FC with a few spots of rain. Temp of 16 and DP of 16C. Another warm almost hot and sticky day ahead for us in the south, and hot in the north. Same tomorrow, but with a bit more wind and cloud.

Some showers, but hit and miss. Looks like there will be showers post the change tomorrow into Sunday morning which might add up a bit in parts of the south given a very moist airmass behind the trough. Hoping to see maybe 5-10mm in the Dandenongs.

Still not really seeing a major change in the offering. Typical late summer doldrums waiting for something to breakthrough. There's no consistency between models when they show rain in the longer range ATM, and what rain they show comes and goes with model run updates. Hopefully Wednesday's front pack more punch, but currently looking like mainly a Tassie system.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Gordon »

Exactly the same here, 16C & thick hill fog, about the third one in the last several days. An odd week - half summer, half autumn. Yesterday's cloud capped us at 28C so quite pleasant.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Skywalker »

Lot of cloud & that's about it here this morning. The only drops falling are the ones out of my sprinkler.

A rather uneventful period of weather for the time being it seems with nothing exciting to look forward to.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by snowfall »

Dark and foggy here this morning too and 18c. It really does feel a bit like autumn, although daytime temps are still way up there.
flyfisher wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:06 pm I certainly hope the Indian Ocean of NW Australia warms up because at current temps we are looking at a dry Autumn and winter. The Indian Ocean seems to be in a cool phase currently. MJO is strong in the pacific which could trigger an El Nino at the same time. Hope not.
I too have been concerned after watching the Indian Ocean for a while now. I am really hoping it doesn't evolve into a full-blown positive IOD, especially after the (weak) La Nina dissipates. The ultra warm Tasman is perhaps a saving grace for the moment!
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Gordon »

snowfall wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:39 am
flyfisher wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:06 pm I certainly hope the Indian Ocean of NW Australia warms up because at current temps we are looking at a dry Autumn and winter. The Indian Ocean seems to be in a cool phase currently. MJO is strong in the pacific which could trigger an El Nino at the same time. Hope not.
I too have been concerned after watching the Indian Ocean for a while now. I am really hoping it doesn't evolve into a full-blown positive IOD, especially after the (weak) La Nina dissipates. The ultra warm Tasman is perhaps a saving grace for the moment!
BOM's 3 month outlook has been positive for good Feb rain for much of Vic for the last two runs: 25 Jan: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... ll/summary and 11 Jan: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... look.shtml

Not that I have great faith in these outlooks, but they must be seeing something - maybe related to JS's latest contribution in this thread? http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/fo ... 29#p104329

Next Thursday's update will be interesting, although it will be for March-May.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Gordon »

Well that's unexpected! Genuine rain, albeit light, is falling here now - and temp just 19C. Might almost settle the dust at this rate...
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Tassiedave »

Bit of social media chat about the potential for severe storms in Tasmania tomorrow. Exciting stuff!
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly »

23C up here yesterday so coolest day for a while. That’s still a degree or two above average for us which just goes to show how persistent this summer has been. Few spots of rain, but nothing recorded now the gauge. Looks like 39C was the hottest in Vic, with mid 30 across the board up north.

Hot sticky one today. Moisture ok aloft but not great aloft (precip waters around 35mm) and the mid levels are really warm so storms a chance, but overall it’s a bit marginal. In coming cloud will cap temps whic lessens the chance for decent storms. Best chance seems to be central through east. One of those days where you watch the sky and radar with the fingers crossed.

Should see a weak showery rainband overnight in the south and then drizzle tomorrow morning near the coast. Progs producing mostly light falls in the 2-5mm range, but east central might do a bit better with spot falls to 10mm or so.

Looks like a ripper system for Tas, closer to the parent low.

Front for Wednesday, but looks like it’s going to mainly slip through to our south :(
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly »

Warm windy humid spitty day up here today with 0.4mm. Similar for much of Vic. Quick spike in temps happening now just west of us as the cloud clears and the change approaches. There’s convection going up on the wind change, but there only a narrow window for development. Hopeful, but not that confident we will get something.

Cracker of a set up for Tasmania with heavy showers and storms.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Gordon »

Watching some clouds growing quite fast to our south-west in the clear air behind the main cloud band - hope there's something in it. BOM twitter has us smack in the middle of their 'Severe Thunderstorms Possible' forecast issued at 12.25 pm(NOT warning... yet!)

(PS: Loving the autumnal temperatures stretching on from tomorrow for a week plus in the latest forecasts/ models.)
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Seems to be quite a bit of development along the change. One would think they’d become lightning active soon, as it continues to move towards the east. Otherwise very blustery here this afternoon after a sticky, warm, cloudy morning with a touch of rain.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by tonycynic »

Couple of mm here, just enough to mess up the freshly painted roof. :x
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by JasmineStorm »

Some nice an active sections in the squall line :)
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by hillybilly »

Lots of sparks coming out of that band now. Almost filled in the gaps as it approaches central areas. Winds getting really gusty here now.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Gordon »

STW issued: for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in Central and parts of South West Forecast Districts.(Also western suburbs-specific warning).
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Blackie »

Steady rain here for about 2 hours, moderate for the last 30 mins. 2mm so far. Dust has been settled.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Didjman »

SLR / GoPro / Sound Recorder Checked! That Daylesford cell heading straight for here :D
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by flyfisher »

Collapsed as it hit the bay - quite an amazing disintegration. Cool change air behind the change seemed raced ahead as it got to the bay perhaps cutting off the storms from energy.
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Re: Return of summer: Feb 5-10

Post by Lucia »

Gordon wrote: Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:10 pm Me too... :wave:

(PS: Loving the autumnal temperatures stretching on from tomorrow for a week plus in the latest forecasts/ models.)
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