VIC: Summer heat followed by possible showers - January 17 to 24 2018

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Wilko
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Wilko » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:05 pm

Back up to 40c here in Highett :x

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:12 pm

Bitumen Melted on Freeway out of Taralgon.
Edit wrong Town. That was Moe
Last edited by Australis(Shell3155) on Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Hunter1890 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:15 pm

Extremely weak trough but the temperature should be on the slide thankfully as the evening progresses. Some PWS' showing over 50 c in South Australia and 49 c in Jeparit! Take those with a grain of salt though as a lot of people don't know how to properly set up and calibrate weather stations. Looks like heat building again as aforementioned for next weekend... ugh.
-Budding Climate Nerd-

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Onetahuti
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Onetahuti » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:18 pm

The cooler wind change is being contrary, what hope does the BOM have in keeping everyone happy. :D
One thing for sure is that I will have to wait longer here in Yallourn Nth for it's arrival than I would if home in Dandenong, currently 41.2°C at the nearest online PWS.

Interesting ob re freeway Australis, Moe being at the bottom of the hill from here. I have not ventured out for a cycle today, I now have another excuse why not. ;)

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Sean » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:39 pm

Temp dropped, but humidity rose, meaning it's still quite warm 8-)

Didn't quite reach 42c in the city.. what a shame..

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by stevco123 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:52 pm

Just another hot day. Big deal. The media overdoing it again.

They're becoming bloody annoying at times.

Almost got to 42 here. Car thermometer showing 45 on the way home on the monash freeway which is expected.

Drove into the so called cool change. Now sitting on a freezing 37 8-)
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hillybilly
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:13 pm

Down to (about) 31C here at Walkerville. Change came through just before noon, when it plummeted from 37C to about 34C :?
Nice day for the beach, with hardly any wind, but geez given we are on a narrow peninsula at the very south of Vic with water on four sides if it’s stinking down here it must be good awful inland :?
"When considering consecutive days 40°C or higher for #Melbourne, this occurs on average 1 in 5 years. Last time, 8-9 Feb 2014 at the old site & 4 in a row 14-17 Jan 2014 at both Olympic Pk & the old site #heatwave Longest spell: 5 in a row 16-20 Jan 1908."
What we are seeing locally is a heap more days above 40C, and broader for Vic a big uptick in days when somewhere see numbers such as 45C (the average used to be about two per decade but since 2000 they’ve come at the rate of about one a year and today makes 2 for 2018).

The runs of consecutive days are obscure stats which I tend to find a bit meaningless if you are looking for trends or patterns. The 40C record sits with 1908, but the 41C, 42C and 43C records (from memory) have all occurred in Melbourne since 2009. They are interesting, but as we’ve seen in Melbourne with this event its a fair bit down to dumb luck whether you sneak over or slip under the threshold.

Btw some just to show how feeble the change is, just back from Venus Bay. It was 32C at the shore car park, 35C behind the dunes and 37C at Tarwin 6km inland.

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by tonycynic » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:26 pm

A lot of interference on the radar, glad it isn't a storm night. Still 40c here from a top of 41.7. Good pool weather. Waiting for the action next Friday.

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by snowfall » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:55 pm

The change has been slowly making its way through here since 5:30pm, but wow it's very gradual. Top temp today was 41.4c just after 5pm. Seems to be turning into a very hot and dry summer this year. Hopefully it calms down a bit in February. A few big rain events like last year would be nice.

Sean
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Sean » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:13 pm

snowfall wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:55 pm
Hopefully it calms down a bit in February.
February will probably be worse. But I do think a big rain event is likely.

HarleyB
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by HarleyB » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:29 pm

Got to 42 today, finally a decent summer run after last summer's warm and humid muck day after day. 46.4 was the official highest temp in Vic, so a pretty extraordinary one.

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hillybilly
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by hillybilly » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:36 pm

Looks like Walpeup with 46.4C is the highest for today in Vic. That’s just 2C short of the Victorian record (set on Black Saturday) so nasty heat. NSW seems to have peaked at 43.9C at Mulurulu, and SA 47.4C at Wundinna. Quite a few spots inland looking at seven or more 40C days in this event now, and humidity is on the increase. Horrible weather for them.

Progs still holding a bit of rain next 48 hours, mainly in southern areas but most will likely be virga.

Btw next weekend looks feral. Stinking hot, unstable and high humidity. We have the potential to see precipitable water values approaching 50mm and maxima in the high 30s or worse. Doubt that’s happened before in our records. One positive is that the sequence could see some decent storms on Thursday through Sunday, and could well set us up for a decent rain event :?

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Gordon » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:40 pm

Geez I hope so HB, rain would be nice. Last weekend seems like ages ago!

Cool change settling in here, down from a ridiculous (at 600m!) 39C to 31C now.

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Hawker » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:43 pm

There is an stw out for the line of storms to the north west.
Looks like there is a second change coming in a bit harder.
Might even get a storm here.
Cheers Hawker

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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:59 pm

Yes, Hawker...I've being keeping an eye on those storms. We might be a chance ;)

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:52 am

Camped road side found some relief In some shade, opened windows was just like a aircon
Woke to some thick drops of moisture enough to drag suitcases in van for it to stop, glad that day is now over.
Not liking the idea of next travel Day to be that hot again, did you really mean sat 27th :o

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hillybilly
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by hillybilly » Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:54 am

Foggy down here at Walkerville and still warm in the high teens. The trough has barely made it across the divide so little relief for those living inland.

Odd shower around today. Models struggling to pin point, with jumps between runs. Not much in it, but guess one can hope to get lucky ;)

Same for Sunday and Monday. Instability and humidity lingers through the whole week, north will stay hot, south warm, and then come next weekend it will be stinking hot again everywhere.

Managed to get a photo of a storm on that trough line last night. Base was very high and it collapsed before my eyes leaving just the residual anvil. Didn’t look like any rain was reaching the ground.

Image

Gordon
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Gordon » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:27 am

A much better day here, back to normality. Fog intermittently drifting in and still only 19C - this time yesterday it was 30-something.

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Didjman
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Didjman » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:35 am

Gordon wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:27 am
A much better day here, back to normality.
It got to 41 here yesterday - at 307m! Now 21/18

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Didjman
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Didjman » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:51 am

Some Cu is going up to the north of here. The sky has that humid unstable look.

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