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VIC: Summer heat followed by possible showers - January 17 to 24 2018

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jimmyay
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by jimmyay »

Maybe there could be 3-4 days of 40+..could be touch and go.
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hillybilly
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by hillybilly »

A few spots of rain down here at Walkerville and mild. Back home in FC have been sat above the inversion most the night in the low 20s. Clearly the shallow change hasn’t flushed way all that heat.

Hot again today in the north, humid in the south. Odd spotty shower but dry mid levels mean hardly any is reaching the ground.

Next system from mid week is looking hot, humid and thundery. Hoping to see that hold for a few model runs before getting to excited ;) Uppers a tad cooler and tending to see 850Ts in the high teens to low 30s rather than the mid 20s with this one.
Maybe there could be 3-4 days of 40+..could be touch and go.
Wouldn’t think so in southern areas. EC yesterday had all days below 40C. Too much cloud, humidity and slightly milder uppers. Place in northern Vic will be quite horrible, though with that combination. Mildura has to be a chance to pass 40C most if not all days this week.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by JasmineStorm »

Another hot one on the way up here. Probably high 30's again, fairly relentless 8 to 10 days on the way.

The potential for high precipitation cluster cells late next weekend into next week is gaining momentum. Monsoon becoming active with a clashing NE and NW atmospheric river down to Vic, a volatile trough, chaperoned by a 150 to 180 knot jet stream running from the bight to south of Tassie on the Monday. Heat index will be through the roof. If this comes together like EC and GFS are currently projecting, this looks like a classic multi day La Nina atomic outbreak ;)
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Wilko »

Bring it on I say
May not have to go far for a bit of storm chasing
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by jimmyay »

Not a big fan of hot humid windy and cloudy weather! They are the worst kind of days in Melb IMHO. Hopefully clear air but instability for storms rather than a high level muggy cloud sheet.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by neil275 »

No end in sight for the brutal heat up here on the Murray. Last 3 days max 38.5, 42 and 43. Expecting 44 today! :o
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by stevco123 »

Cracked 30 degrees here. Very unusual and unexpected
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by snowfall »

So looking like a rather tropical weekend coming up. We certainly need a break from this dry weather, so some rain/storms next weekend would be very welcome! Still a week away, so here's hoping for some upgrades. Already feeling tropical outside today - humid and hot. We're currently on 32.1c and 43% humidity. Had a few brief showers pass through overnight, but these only amounted to 0.5mm.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Horts »

BSCH GFS Storm Probabilities has central metro areas faint chance at storms from 1pm -12am.

Thoughts everyone? Would love to kick back this arvo after a day on the beach, watching the tennis with a beer in hand while listening to a few rumbles roll in!
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by hillybilly »

Driven back to FC to be met by a T/Td combination of 28/19C. Feels like I’m living in the Byron hinterland with that combination. Must be brutal on the flats of the Yarra Valley and northern Vic.

Quite unstable this arvo, but the low levels have a significant CAP due to very warm temps. If anything breaks the cap it will go off, but models kept things very sparse. Thinking best chance is west of Macedon where the sea breeze and easterly will provide a bit of a focus. Steering is nwly so could in theory push south.

Latest gfs has a big multi day storm event now starting on Wednesday with a mean combination of heat and humidity. Basically the pattern we’ve had the last couple of days doesn’t really break down, but we see increasingly moist conditions develop. The easterly trough over northern Vic currently just deepens a little day by day and digs further southwest.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Didjman »

31/13 here with mid level cloud with sun peeping through.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Dane »

sitting on just over 30c here and humid.
Just has a brief sunshower not enough to
register in the gauge
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Sean »

Doesn't seem like anything wants to get started.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Macedonian »

Four days in a row with mins higher than 20 and maxs higher than 30. If that has happened before at Mt Macedon i would be surprised. Can't say that i'm enjoying it.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Tassiedave »

5 days of thirty or above in the BOM forecast in the next 7 days for Launceston. The predicted run is 31,28,29,30,31,35,35. We only average 4.3 30 degree days per year. I'm not sure we have had consecutive 35s before.
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Chritc »

Something trying to get going in the northwest suburbs
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hillybilly
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by hillybilly »

Got a couple of showers this arvo, but didn’t trouble the rain gauge :( 28C for a max with a DP trying to pass 20C. Quite incredible conditions post a cool change. Must be in part due to the exceptionally hot Tasman Sea plus the intense upper heat keeping a cap on things.

Looks like Mildura tops today with 44.2C. Also multiple 43s in the northeast. This is becoming a major event up in northern parts and has eight days still to run at least before a proper cool down :o Must be having some pretty significant impacts - my berries which looked fantastic a few days back have struggled with many ripening in a hurry leaving them discoloured. Makes me wonder about the impacts people are starting to feel on the land etc.

All progs have heat and humidity through til Tuesday in nine days time. Gfs and CMC keeps on a lot of storms. EC keeps the storms mainly out east but has the heat and humidity :( I tend to find GFS and CMC are better for storm set-ups so hopefully they pick this one.

Will start a thread for the continuing hot, humid and possibly thundery weather that will just roll on...
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Makes for interesting times, storm in caravan early am hours,
Woken with very loud thunder then bolts and rain @ Lakes E
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hillybilly
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Re: Summer heat followed by possible showers: January 17-24

Post by hillybilly »

18C with a DP of 17C this morning. Going to be another tropical one, but a bit more southerly in the winds so not quite as hot. Odd shower or storm about the north where the trough still sits.

Next two days are going to be the coolest for the week :o

Btw impressive storms in SA overnight, though mainly sparks rather than rain.
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